FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary leads all Republicans

[pbrower2a]

Devastating!

The 49-41 lead over Jeb Bush indicates that even the Favorite Son effect cannot bring Florida into play. Florida has typically been R+3 or so for some time, approaching the national average only in 2000.

The Hispanic vote is growing and becoming more D. The Cuban-American vote has gone from being solid R  to being a genuine swing vote. Republicans no longer can shout "We hate Fidel Castro and Democrats are soft on Communism" and reliably get the Cuban-American vote in Florida. Fidel Castro is still widely hated, but that is not the only issue that Cuban-Americans care about. Could it be streets and schools?

Republicans have been bungling Florida for some time. Quinnipiac is not a D-leaning pollster, as shown in a recent poll in Colorado. Gay rights are usually a D concern, and the 59% support for SSM may be an exaggeration of an R disadvantage. 30 months can be an eternity in Presidential politics, but at this point Florida is for Hillary Clinton to lose. Republicans are at the point that they need a disgraced President to have a chance to win the Presidency in 2016.



 

[pbrower2a]

The economic meltdowns of 1929-1933 and 2007-2009 look very similar for a year and a half. The length is the most obvious difference, and for that there is a cause: in 1931 Herbert Hoover failed to back the banks against the bank runs that brought more erosion of the economy seemingly every day. In 2009 the institutions backed the banks.

The 1931 failure ravaged banking, taking one tier after another of banks weaken and fail. That said, such banks that remained at the beginning of 1933 were so strong that FDR could back them cheaply. In 2009 the American political system did nothing to weed out the pervasive corruption in the financial industry but did buy time for doing so.