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  AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs)
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Author Topic: AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs)  (Read 2757 times)
Lief 🐋
Lief
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« on: May 01, 2014, 02:22:04 pm »

Leads all the Republicans but Huckabee comfortably.

Clinton 44
Huckabee 47

Clinton 46
Bush 41

Clinton 48
Paul 42

Clinton 47
Christie 38

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/05/clintons-still-strong-in-arkansas.html
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Senator Cris
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« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2014, 02:24:58 pm »

Ops. I remove my topic Smiley
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2014, 02:36:13 pm »

Looks like we can put the "Hillary has no chance in Arkansas" talk to rest.

I don't expect her to carry it the end against a decent Republican (or Huckabee), but it's pretty clear from several polls now that the state is in play.
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Liberalrocks
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« Reply #3 on: May 01, 2014, 02:45:20 pm »
« Edited: May 01, 2014, 02:47:50 pm by Liberalrocks »

Its one poll but it makes me happy. Im so tired of the forum naysayers not only saying she can't win in Arkansas but predicting a large GOP win against her. She could lose Arkansas but it will be a battleground state that the Clintons would at least fight for it initially.
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #4 on: May 01, 2014, 02:46:37 pm »

The Clinton name still resonates strongly there, it seems.
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marty
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« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2014, 02:48:37 pm »

2016 is going to be a landslide. We are due for one, too. The most amazing thing to me is that democrats are picking up red states quicker than you can say "damn". BTW, christie would not win a single section of the country if he runs against her. In my years of studying this stuff, I have never seen such dominant polling of one candidate. I have no idea why obama's crappy approval ratings virtually everywhere are not making republicans at least a little competitive.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2014, 03:02:13 pm »

These are solid numbers for Hilldog.

It's also the 3rd 2016 poll so far from AR to show that the state is a tossup with her ...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2014, 03:06:09 pm »

2016 is going to be a landslide. We are due for one, too. The most amazing thing to me is that democrats are picking up red states quicker than you can say "damn". BTW, christie would not win a single section of the country if he runs against her. In my years of studying this stuff, I have never seen such dominant polling of one candidate. I have no idea why obama's crappy approval ratings virtually everywhere are not making republicans at least a little competitive.

Voters already know and like Hillary. Saying "hilery = obuma cuz both demonkrat" is not going to work outside of Free Republic and Breitbart.

Besides, 43% isn't THAT bad of an approval. McCain still got 46% of the vote even while Bush's approval was at 25%, so it doesn't have as big of an impact as many think.
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retromike22
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« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2014, 03:09:21 pm »

Clinton vs. Bush, 12% of Romney voters choose Clinton.
Clinton vs. Christie, 14% of Romney voters choose Clinton.
Clinton vs. Huckabee, 11% of Romney voters choose Clinton.
Clinton vs. Paul, 14% of Romney voters choose Clinton.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2014, 03:12:29 pm »

Clinton vs. Bush, 12% of Romney voters choose Clinton.
Clinton vs. Christie, 14% of Romney voters choose Clinton.
Clinton vs. Huckabee, 11% of Romney voters choose Clinton.
Clinton vs. Paul, 14% of Romney voters choose Clinton.

The "someone else/don't remember" category were likely almost all Romney voters as well, and Hillary wins them overwhelmingly against everyone besides Huck.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2014, 03:29:27 pm »

An important thing to remember:

* AR had one of the lowest turnouts in 2008 and 2012, likely because many old white people stayed home who didn't want to vote for the black Obama. This could change with Clinton on the ticket: she's a working class hero, especially for middle aged and older women.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn
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« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2014, 03:52:19 pm »

Nice to see AR hasn't become as solid GOP as WV.
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excelsus
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« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2014, 03:59:38 pm »

I've been predicting this all along.
I've been humbled, kicked, spat upon for my statement, but I've never let it get to myself.

Here are some examples:

I think we can agree on the fact that there is no way around Clinton as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Everybody also knows that Clinton will retake West Virginia and Arkansas; Oklahoma will stay Republican, of course, but it'll be trending 10% or more Democratic.

What counties will stay Republican in AR and WV? What OK counties will Clinton recapture?
OK and WV are very interesting in this regard as all of their counties were won by Romney. The last Democratic candidate to win at least one Oklahoman county was Gore.

lolufunnytho

Best case scenario, Clinton maybe loses by 10 points in Arkansas. They don't have the coal issue like WV. Maybe she wins one or two eastern Oklahoma counties but she'll still lose the state by 15 points or more.

I'm wavering between West South Central and East South Central.

On the one hand Hillary will sweep Arkansas in a landslide, she is likely to win Louisiana and she will do a decent result in Oklahoma, but on the other hand Texas is so huge that even if she is only narrowly outpolled there all the votes from the three smaller states will be redeems by the Texan results.

In ESC she will probably win only one state, and the black vote will decrease.

Thus, it's really hard for me to tell where she  will do worse.

Why does everybody think Appalachia is not viable for Clinton?

Assuming Huckabee doesn't run, Arkansas, Missouri and West Virginia are safe Democratic, Kentucky and Louisiana lean, and Tennessee is a tossup.
Why can't all those left-wing and right-wing Clinton haters accept that fact?

Since the TS asked about Clinton's maximum EV, you have to put these state into the blue (red) column!!
This guy is hilarious.
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Supersonic
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« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2014, 04:01:46 pm »

I'll just say that all polls need to be taken with a pinch of salt this far out.

Nevertheless, Hillary's number are undoubtedly good here.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn
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« Reply #14 on: May 01, 2014, 04:13:58 pm »

Can't seem to figure out how to properly quote excelsus's post...but in response I'll point out the last WV had Hillary doing pretty bad unfortunately: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179653.0
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excelsus
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« Reply #15 on: May 01, 2014, 04:35:27 pm »

Can't seem to figure out how to properly quote excelsus's post...but in response I'll point out the last WV had Hillary doing pretty bad unfortunately: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179653.0

Okay, her WV numbers may have a sobering effect, but I still think that that state is at least likely Democratic.
Regarding Arkansas I am - obviously - still totally right - especially because I've always made side conditions in respect of Huckabee.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn
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« Reply #16 on: May 01, 2014, 04:41:36 pm »

Can't seem to figure out how to properly quote excelsus's post...but in response I'll point out the last WV had Hillary doing pretty bad unfortunately: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179653.0

Okay, her WV numbers may have a sobering effect, but I still think that that state is at least likely Democratic.
Regarding Arkansas I am - obviously - still totally right - especially because I've always made side conditions in respect of Huckabee.

I don't know about likely Democratic, but who knows this far out. She'll have to directly confront the coal issue in WV, Obama hasn't campaigned in the state so he hasn't had to take on the issues there. I suppose with the support of Bill, Manchin & Tomblin she'll have a decent chance to make the state competitive.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #17 on: May 02, 2014, 10:34:06 am »

Looks like we can put the "Hillary has no chance in Arkansas" talk to rest.

I don't expect her to carry it the end against a decent Republican (or Huckabee), but it's pretty clear from several polls now that the state is in play.

Who is a "decent" Republican anymore? Pawlenty? Huntsman?
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Sasquatch
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« Reply #18 on: May 04, 2014, 02:28:38 pm »

I suspected Hillary would perform as well in Arkansas as Gore did in 2000, but she might actually win it. Who'd a thunk it?
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Holmes
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« Reply #19 on: May 04, 2014, 04:24:47 pm »

She won't be leading here after the campaign begins and she starts talking about gays and women's (reproductive) rights.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #20 on: May 05, 2014, 09:36:16 pm »

She won't be leading here after the campaign begins and she starts talking about gays and women's (reproductive) rights.

There will likely be bigger concerns.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #21 on: May 05, 2014, 09:43:35 pm »

She won't win here, but the swings are going to be crazy and possibly in other upper south areas.
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Oh Jeremy Corbyn
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« Reply #22 on: May 05, 2014, 10:20:22 pm »
« Edited: May 06, 2014, 09:24:29 am by ShadowOfTheWave »

She could win, but probably won't commit to it enough to pull it off. If AR had 12 EV's it would be a different story.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #23 on: May 06, 2014, 06:01:45 am »

She won't win here, but the swings are going to be crazy and possibly in other upper south areas.
This
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: May 06, 2014, 08:37:46 am »

She could win, but probably won't commit to it enough to pull it off. If AR has 12 EV's it would be a different story.

The point. It has been a long time since she lived in Arkansas. I still think that the most likely state that she would win whose name begins with the letter "A" is Arizona.
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