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  AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs)
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Author Topic: AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs)  (Read 2765 times)
Maxwell
mah519
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« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2014, 09:17:37 am »
« edited: May 06, 2014, 09:20:00 am by IDS Legislator Maxwell »

Arkansas is definitely more likely: Arizona hasn't swung any direction since Gore. Well, okay, it has, but not in the direction Democrats want it to (Bush won by 6 in 2000, but since then its been 10+ margins). It seems pretty inelastic at this point, but I assume Hillary could get within 5 of it, maybe even 3 or 2 if  its a particularly bad GOP nominee.
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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #26 on: May 18, 2014, 03:24:31 pm »

The Clinton name still resonates strongly there, it seems.

And most people in the state still proudly consider themselves Democrats (though certainly not progressives) ... Let's face it, McCain/Romney margins in Arkansas were NOT because the state is this deep red state; race played a factor.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: May 18, 2014, 04:42:51 pm »

Arkansas is definitely more likely: Arizona hasn't swung any direction since Gore. Well, okay, it has, but not in the direction Democrats want it to (Bush won by 6 in 2000, but since then its been 10+ margins). It seems pretty inelastic at this point, but I assume Hillary could get within 5 of it, maybe even 3 or 2 if  its a particularly bad GOP nominee.

Barely 10 in 2004
8.5 in 2008 despite having a Favorite Son R
9 in 2012

Recent polls show Arizona going very close. Demographics (fast-growing Mexican-American electorate) suggest that Arizona is going in the same direction as neighboring Nevada and New Mexico and one-point-neighbor Colorado. Slower, but inexorably.
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