AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs) (user search)
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  AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs) (search mode)
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Author Topic: AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs)  (Read 3266 times)

excelsus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 692
« on: May 01, 2014, 03:59:38 PM »

I've been predicting this all along.
I've been humbled, kicked, spat upon for my statement, but I've never let it get to myself.

Here are some examples:

I think we can agree on the fact that there is no way around Clinton as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Everybody also knows that Clinton will retake West Virginia and Arkansas; Oklahoma will stay Republican, of course, but it'll be trending 10% or more Democratic.

What counties will stay Republican in AR and WV? What OK counties will Clinton recapture?
OK and WV are very interesting in this regard as all of their counties were won by Romney. The last Democratic candidate to win at least one Oklahoman county was Gore.

lolufunnytho

Best case scenario, Clinton maybe loses by 10 points in Arkansas. They don't have the coal issue like WV. Maybe she wins one or two eastern Oklahoma counties but she'll still lose the state by 15 points or more.

I'm wavering between West South Central and East South Central.

On the one hand Hillary will sweep Arkansas in a landslide, she is likely to win Louisiana and she will do a decent result in Oklahoma, but on the other hand Texas is so huge that even if she is only narrowly outpolled there all the votes from the three smaller states will be redeems by the Texan results.

In ESC she will probably win only one state, and the black vote will decrease.

Thus, it's really hard for me to tell where she  will do worse.

Why does everybody think Appalachia is not viable for Clinton?

Assuming Huckabee doesn't run, Arkansas, Missouri and West Virginia are safe Democratic, Kentucky and Louisiana lean, and Tennessee is a tossup.
Why can't all those left-wing and right-wing Clinton haters accept that fact?

Since the TS asked about Clinton's maximum EV, you have to put these state into the blue (red) column!!
This guy is hilarious.
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excelsus
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 692
« Reply #1 on: May 01, 2014, 04:35:27 PM »

Can't seem to figure out how to properly quote excelsus's post...but in response I'll point out the last WV had Hillary doing pretty bad unfortunately: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=179653.0

Okay, her WV numbers may have a sobering effect, but I still think that that state is at least likely Democratic.
Regarding Arkansas I am - obviously - still totally right - especially because I've always made side conditions in respect of Huckabee.
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