AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs) (user search)
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  AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs) (search mode)
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Author Topic: AR-PPP: Arkansas is Hillary County (unless Huckabee runs)  (Read 3215 times)
pbrower2a
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« on: May 02, 2014, 10:34:06 AM »

Looks like we can put the "Hillary has no chance in Arkansas" talk to rest.

I don't expect her to carry it the end against a decent Republican (or Huckabee), but it's pretty clear from several polls now that the state is in play.

Who is a "decent" Republican anymore? Pawlenty? Huntsman?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2014, 09:36:16 PM »

She won't be leading here after the campaign begins and she starts talking about gays and women's (reproductive) rights.

There will likely be bigger concerns.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2014, 08:37:46 AM »

She could win, but probably won't commit to it enough to pull it off. If AR has 12 EV's it would be a different story.

The point. It has been a long time since she lived in Arkansas. I still think that the most likely state that she would win whose name begins with the letter "A" is Arizona.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #3 on: May 18, 2014, 04:42:51 PM »

Arkansas is definitely more likely: Arizona hasn't swung any direction since Gore. Well, okay, it has, but not in the direction Democrats want it to (Bush won by 6 in 2000, but since then its been 10+ margins). It seems pretty inelastic at this point, but I assume Hillary could get within 5 of it, maybe even 3 or 2 if  its a particularly bad GOP nominee.

Barely 10 in 2004
8.5 in 2008 despite having a Favorite Son R
9 in 2012

Recent polls show Arizona going very close. Demographics (fast-growing Mexican-American electorate) suggest that Arizona is going in the same direction as neighboring Nevada and New Mexico and one-point-neighbor Colorado. Slower, but inexorably.
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