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Author Topic: Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates.  (Read 26591 times)
King Francis I
windjammer
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« on: May 03, 2014, 05:29:16 pm »

For 1-2 months, I have worked to create the PVI for every state senate in the United States. Indeed, I have always been saddened to see the PVI for that aren't available, considering how important are local elections in the USA.

How state senate PVIs are calculated: this is basically the same method than the Cook Partisan voting index: based on the two last presidential election (except Utah and Alaska for obvious reasons).
A D+1 state senate district means that if the Democratic party gets 50% of the vote in the presidential election, they should get 51% in this district.
And a big thank to Miles for LA and NC!


Well, I have a lot of things to add: DINO map, etc,... So I will probably frequently update!



Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Hawaii
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Maine
Maryland: not available
Massachussetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
Missouri
Montana: not available
Nebraska
Missouri
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New York
North Carolina
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oregon
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Texas
Utah
Vermont
Virginia
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming


« Last Edit: September 25, 2014, 09:57:22 am by windjammer »Logged

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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US State Houses
King Francis I
windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: May 03, 2014, 05:31:02 pm »

Alabama


SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   -19
2   REP   -16
3   REP   -22
4   REP   -34
5   REP   -29
6   DEM   -15
7   REP   -6
8   REP   -26
9   REP   -32
10   REP   -24
11   REP   -29
12   REP   -20
13   REP   -17
14   REP   -29
15   REP   -27
16   REP   -25
17   REP   -35
18   DEM   12
19   DEM   24
20   DEM   21
21   REP   -14
22   DEM   -23
23   DEM   10
24   DEM   11
25   REP   -16
26   DEM   21
27   REP   -14
28   DEM   8
29   IND   -26
30   REP   -26
31   REP   -24
32   REP   -32
33   DEM   18
34   REP   -26
35   REP   -15


SD   INC   PVI   
19   DEM   24   
20   DEM   21   
26   DEM   21   
33   DEM   18   
18   DEM   12   
24   DEM   11   
23   DEM   10   
28   DEM   8   
7   REP   -6   
21   REP   -14   
27   REP   -14   
6   DEM   -15   
35   REP   -15   
2   REP   -16   
25   REP   -16   
13   REP   -17   
1   DEM   -19   
12   REP   -20   *
3   REP   -22   
22   DEM   -23   
10   REP   -24   
31   REP   -24   
16   REP   -25   
8   REP   -26   
29   IND   -26   
30   REP   -26   
34   REP   -26   
15   REP   -27   
5   REP   -29   
11   REP   -29   
14   REP   -29   
9   REP   -32   
32   REP   -32   
4   REP   -34   
17   REP   -35   

As you can see, that is now impossible for AL democrats to regain their majority lost in 2010. Alabama state senate elections are up every 4 years and the next elections are scheduled in 2014. So AL democrats should lose between 1 and 3 seats because of the new redistricting plan. Indeed, Senate districts 1 and 22 were made much more favorable to republcians. For instance, Senate district 22 had a 30% black population. With this new plan, only a 22% black population. The incumbent is seeking reelection, but seriously, this district should be a rep pick up. For district 1, the dem incumbent is retiring, so probably an another pick up opportunity.
But, to be honest, I respect the incumbents from district 1 and district 22 because I read that the AL GOP tried to recruit them, and they both refused.
So yeah, 2014 should show the complete republicanization of Alabama.

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Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
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« Reply #2 on: May 03, 2014, 05:34:04 pm »

Alaska
http://alaskapride.blogspot.fr/2011/11/alaska-2012-legislative-redistricting.html
The House map. Each senate district= 2 house districts.
Sorry, I have found nothing better, I will probably draw the Alaska senate map in the future if I have time.

SD   INC   PVI
1   R   -22
2   R   -12
3   R   -13
4   R   -24
5   R   -29
6   R   -23
7   D   -5
8   D   4
9   D   12
10   D   -6
11   R   -10
12   R   -10
13   R   -14
14   R   -16
15   R   -19
16   D*   7
17   R   -3
18   R   2
19   D   11
20   D*   9



SD    INC   PVI
9   D   12
19   D   11
20   D*   9
16   D*   7
8   D   4
18   R   2
17   R   -3
7   D   -5
10   D   -6
11   R   -10     *
12   R   -10
2   R   -12
3   R   -13
13   R   -14
14   R   -16
15   R   -19
1   R   -22
6   R   -23
4   R   -24
5   R   -29
And to be honest, Alaska PVI is only based on the 2012 results, I havenít found the 2008 results, and seriously, itís probably more accurate (you know the ďI can see Russia from my houseĒ girl).
The D*= a democrat caucusing with the republican caucus. The AK democratic party lost 3 seats in the last election. (A rep gerrymander if I have correctly understood). But seriously, the AK democratic party seems to be a good minority party, they successfully hold some rep leaning seats.
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windjammer
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2014, 05:35:47 pm »

Arizona


SD   INC   PVI
1   Rep   -19
2   Dem   5
3   Dem   16
4   Dem   2
5   Rep   -21
6   Rep   -11
7   Dem   10
8   Dem   -8
9   Dem   1
10   Dem   0
11   Rep   -12
12   Rep   -19
13   Rep   -18
14   Rep   -17
15   Rep   -15
16   Rep   -16
17   Rep   -10
18   Rep   -3
19   Dem   11
20   Rep   -9
21   Rep   -12
22   Rep   -19
23   Rep   -14
24   Dem   8
25   Rep   -18
26   Dem   6
27   Dem   20
28   Rep   -8
29   Dem   7
30   Dem   7


SD   INC   PVI   
27   Dem   20   
3   Dem   16   
19   Dem   11   
7   Dem   10   
24   Dem   8   
29   Dem   7   
30   Dem   7   
26   Dem   6   
2   Dem   5   
4   Dem   2   
9   Dem   1   
10   Dem   0   
18   Rep   -3   
8   Dem   -8   
28   Rep   -8   *
20   Rep   -9   
17   Rep   -10   
6   Rep   -11   
11   Rep   -12   
21   Rep   -12   
23   Rep   -14   
15   Rep   -15   
16   Rep   -16   
14   Rep   -17   
13   Rep   -18   
25   Rep   -18   
1   Rep   -19   
12   Rep   -19   
22   Rep   -19   
5   Rep   -21   

The AZ districts obviously were made more favorable to the democrats. But seriously, I donít expect them to take the majority. It might be a possibility because the AZ republican party is so crazy. You know, they passed a gay apartheid bill few months ago, even if Arizona is one of the most gay-friendly red state in the country. But Arizona is too polarized.
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Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
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windjammer
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« Reply #4 on: May 03, 2014, 05:37:09 pm »

Arkansas

SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -25
2   REP   -22
3   REP   -18
4   DEM   0
5   REP   -22
6   REP   -20
7   REP   -18
8   REP   -22
9   REP   -20
10   DEM   -21
11   REP   -20
12   DEM   -13
13   REP   -18
14   REP   -18
15   REP   -20
16   REP   -24
17   REP   -23
18   REP   -24   *
19   DEM   -20
20   DEM   -17
21   REP   -16
22   DEM   -11
23   REP   -14
24   DEM   9
25   DEM   14
26   DEM   -13
27   DEM   -13
28   REP   -21
29   REP   -32
30   DEM   25
31   DEM   4
32   DEM   12
33   REP   -19
34   REP   -12
35   REP   -13



SD   INC   PVI   
30   DEM   25   
25   DEM   14   
32   DEM   12   
24   DEM   9   
31   DEM   4   
4   DEM   0   
22   DEM   -11   
34   REP   -12   
12   DEM   -13   
26   DEM   -13   
27   DEM   -13   
35   REP   -13   
23   REP   -14   
21   REP   -16   
20   DEM   -17   
3   REP   -18   
7   REP   -18   
13   REP   -18   *
14   REP   -18   
33   REP   -19   
6   REP   -20   
9   REP   -20   
11   REP   -20   
15   REP   -20   
19   DEM   -20   
10   DEM   -21   
28   REP   -21   
2   REP   -22   
5   REP   -22   
8   REP   -22   
17   REP   -23   
16   REP   -24   
18   REP   -24   
1   REP   -25   
29   REP   -32   


Nothing surprising, Arkansas is being republicanized but the AR democratic party is still competitive in some areas. I was just surprised to see only 2 Blue Dog districts are from the Cotton district. I seriously expected to see more blue dog districts in the Cotton district. Gore carried this district after all. But except SD10 and SD12, most are from East Arkansas.
I would love to see where Clinton will overperform Obama more, I canít wait!
« Last Edit: May 20, 2014, 05:21:07 am by Midwest Governor windjammer »Logged

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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
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« Reply #5 on: May 03, 2014, 05:38:40 pm »

California
http://www.legislature.ca.gov/legislators_and_districts/districts/senatedistricts.html
The current districts. (Sorry, I was so busy Tongue)


SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -10
2   DEM   19
3   DEM   14
4   REP   -6
5   DEM   2
6   DEM   14
7   DEM   10
8   DEM   -8
9   DEM   35
10   DEM   21
11   DEM   32
12   REP   5
13   DEM   21
14   REP   5
15   DEM   17
16   REP   -16
17   DEM   12
18   REP   22
19   DEM   7
20   DEM   15
21   REP   -4
22   DEM   14
23   REP   -6
24   DEM   30
25   DEM   8
26   DEM   15
27   DEM   4
28   DEM   -6
29   REP   -3
30   DEM   36
31   DEM   5
32   DEM   11
33   DEM   26
34   DEM   0
35   DEM   27
36   REP   -7
37   REP   -6
38   REP   -10
39   DEM   8
40   DEM   12


SD   INC   PVI   
30   DEM   36   
9   DEM   35   
11   DEM   32   
24   DEM   30   
35   DEM   27   
33   DEM   26   
18   REP   22   
10   DEM   21   
13   DEM   21   
2   DEM   19   
15   DEM   17   
20   DEM   15   
26   DEM   15   
3   DEM   14   
6   DEM   14   
22   DEM   14   
17   DEM   12   
40   DEM   12   
32   DEM   11   
7   DEM   10   
25   DEM   8   
39   DEM   8   
19   DEM   7   
12   REP   5   
14   REP   5   
31   DEM   5   
27   DEM   4   *
5   DEM   2   
34   DEM   0   
29   REP   -3   
21   REP   -4   
4   REP   -6   
23   REP   -6   
28   DEM   -6   
37   REP   -6   
36   REP   -7   
8   DEM   -8   
1   REP   -10   
38   REP   -10   
16   REP   -16   


You can see some strange things (a republican holding a D+22 district Lolį, thatís normal. All districts have not been up for reelection.  As you can see, the * doesnít represent the decisive district for the control of this chamber, but the decisive district for the 2/3 majority. And seriously, CA democrats should easily keep/regain  their supermajority. CA is by far the most polarized state after all. So if they could avoid some scandals, (three dem seats are now vacant because of that), California should be a one party state! The crazy tax cutter and anti immigration anti positive discrimination are definitely in a minority party. Thank you Schwarzenegger, thank you Pete Wilson Purple heart Purple heart.
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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
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Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US State Houses
King Francis I
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« Reply #6 on: May 03, 2014, 05:40:03 pm »

Colorado


SD   INC   PVI
SD 1   REP   -23
SD 2   REP   -14
SD 3   REP   7
SD 4   REP   -16
SD 5   DEM   1
SD 6   REP   -6
SD 7   REP   -19
SD 8   REP   -2
SD 9   REP   -22
SD 10   REP   -15
SD 11   REP   7
SD 12   REP   -13
SD 13   REP   -3
SD 14   DEM   9
SD 15   REP   -6
SD 16   DEM   0
SD 17   DEM   11
SD 18   DEM   27
SD 19   DEM   2
SD 20   DEM   1
SD 21   DEM   13
SD 22   DEM   2
SD 23   REP   -6
SD 24   DEM   3
SD 25   DEM   4
SD 26   DEM   3
SD 27   REP   -4
SD 28   DEM   6
SD 29   DEM   8
SD 30   REP   -11
SD 31   DEM   19
SD 32   DEM   19
SD 33   DEM   33
SD 34   DEM   27
SD 35   REP   -6



SD   INC    PVI   
SD 33   DEM   33   
SD 18   DEM   27   
SD 34   DEM   27   
SD 31   DEM   19   
SD 32   DEM   19   
SD 21   DEM   13   
SD 17   DEM   11   
SD 14   DEM   9   
SD 29   DEM   8   
SD 3   REP   7   
SD 11   REP   7   
SD 28   DEM   6   
SD 25   DEM   4   
SD 24   DEM   3   
SD 26   DEM   3   
SD 19   DEM   2   
SD 22   DEM   2   
SD 5   DEM   1   *
SD 20   DEM   1   
SD 16   DEM   0   
SD 8   REP   -2   
SD 13   REP   -3   
SD 27   REP   -4   
SD 6   REP   -6   
SD 15   REP   -6   
SD 23   REP   -6   
SD 35   REP   -6   
SD 30   REP   -11   
SD 12   REP   -13   
SD 2   REP   -14   
SD 10   REP   -15   
SD 4   REP   -16   
SD 7   REP   -19   
SD 9   REP   -22   
SD 1   REP   -23   

Well, an extremely polarized state as you can see. (the 2 D+7 districts: the 2 senators who have been recalled). Only half of the seats will be up for reelection in 2014, the CO GOP party becoming the majority party in the senate is the possibility, but I believe Democrats  are favored.
-The 2 D+7 districts, two solid dem recruits: two state representatives will try to defeat the 2 gop senators. And seriously, I would be extremely surprised if both of them failed. CO is extremely polarized.
-So in order to win, the CO republican party needs to defend these two seats (and that will be difficult), and to pick up some D+0/D+1/D+2 seats. Thatís unlikely. I know CO is a gun nut state. But come on, gun control wonít be the only issue. And the CO GOP crazy is definitely crazy.
-And they have definitely no chance to pick up the CO house (the decisive house district is D+5, thanks to redistricting).
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Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
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« Reply #7 on: May 03, 2014, 05:42:12 pm »

Connecticut


SD   INC   PVI
SD 1         DEM   25
SD 2         DEM   34
SD 3           DEM   12
SD 4           DEM   9
SD 5           DEM   11
SD 6           DEM   15
SD 7    REP   2
SD 8           REP   -1
SD 9           DEM   10
SD 10   DEM   37
SD 11   DEM   22
SD 12   DEM   4
SD 13   DEM   11
SD 14   DEM   3
SD 15   DEM   10
SD 16   REP   -2
SD 17   DEM   8
SD 18   DEM   5
SD 19   DEM   5
SD 20   DEM   9
SD 21   REP   -2
SD 22   DEM   7
SD 23   DEM   37
SD 24   REP   3
SD 25   DEM   8
SD 26   REP   0
SD 27   DEM   11
SD 28   REP   0
SD 29   DEM   11
SD 30   REP   0
SD 31   REP   4
SD 32   REP   -8
SD 33   REP   4
SD 34   REP   2
SD 35   REP   4
SD 36   REP   -3



SD   INC   PVI   
SD 10   DEM   37   
SD 23   DEM   37   
SD 2     DEM   34   
SD 1           DEM   25   
SD 11   DEM   22   
SD 6           DEM   15   
SD 3     DEM   12   
SD 5   DEM   11   
SD 13   DEM   11   
SD 27   DEM   11   
SD 29   DEM   11   
SD 9    DEM   10   
SD 15   DEM   10   
SD 4    DEM   9   
SD 20   DEM   9   
SD 17   DEM   8   
SD 25   DEM   8   
SD 22   DEM   7   *
SD 18   DEM   5   
SD 19   DEM   5   
SD 12   DEM   4   
SD 31   REP   4   
SD 33   REP   4   
SD 35   REP   4   
SD 14   DEM   3   
SD 24   REP   3   
SD 7    REP   2   
SD 34   REP   2   
SD 26   REP   0   
SD 28   REP   0   
SD 30   REP   0   
SD 8    REP   -1   
SD 16   REP   -2   
SD 21   REP   -2   
SD 36   REP   -3   
SD 32   REP   -8   


Well, most REP districts are from Southeast Connecticut. But seriously, the CO republican party seems to be really effective: they hold some swing districts/lean D districts.
« Last Edit: May 03, 2014, 05:52:05 pm by Midwest Governor windjammer »Logged

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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates
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« Reply #8 on: May 03, 2014, 05:43:59 pm »

Delaware
http://elections.delaware.gov/information/districtmaps/pdf/sen/2012_SENATE_INFO_MAP.pdf


SD   INC   PVI
1   D   18
2   D   38
3   D   35
4   R   0
5   R   7
6   R   -2
7   D   14
8   D   8
9   D   14
10   D   9
11   D   22
12   D   18
13   D   26
14   D   5
15   R   -5
16   R   -2
17   D   9
18   R   -9
19   R   -8
20   R   -10
21   D   -12


SD   INC   PVI   
2   D   38   
3   D   35   
13   D   26   
11   D   22   
1   D   18   
12   D   18   
7   D   14   
9   D   14   
10   D   9   
17   D   9   
8   D   8   *
5   R   7   
14   D   5   
4   R   0   
6   R   -2   
16   R   -2   
15   R   -5   
19   R   -8   
18   R   -9   
20   R   -10   
21   D   -12   


So, I can officially say: THE DE GOP PARTY IS DEAD. They didnít even hold the most conservative district. And they managed to protect 2 seats by a slim margin. The problem for them is that the DE democratic party is really moderate. (According to primary colors, both senators and the US representative should be primaried Tongue).

Well, time for the DE  democratic party to be more progressive?
« Last Edit: May 03, 2014, 05:49:21 pm by Midwest Governor windjammer »Logged

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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2014, 05:45:25 pm »

Florida


SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -25
2   REP   -19
3   DEM   3
4   REP   -18
5   REP   -16
6   REP   -11
7   REP   -8
8   REP   -4
9   DEM   6
10   REP   -5
11   REP   -13
12   DEM   13
13   REP   -4
14   DEM   13
15   REP   -6
16   REP   -8
17   REP   -6
18   REP   -5
19   DEM   23
20   REP   -3
21   REP   -7
22   REP   -2
23   REP   -14
24   REP   -6
25   DEM   5
26   REP   -10
27   DEM   15
28   REP   -5
29   DEM   9
30   REP   -10
31   DEM   29
32   REP   -6
33   DEM   10
34   DEM   4
35   DEM   10
36   DEM   36
37   REP   -6
38   REP   -5
39   DEM   17
40   REP   -8


SD   INC   PVI   
36   DEM   36   
31   DEM   29   
19   DEM   23   
39   DEM   17   
27   DEM   15   
12   DEM   13   
14   DEM   13   
33   DEM   10   
35   DEM   10   
29   DEM   9   
9   DEM   6   
25   DEM   5   
34   DEM   4   
3   DEM   3   
22   REP   -2   
20   REP   -3   
8   REP   -4   
13   REP   -4   
10   REP   -5   
18   REP   -5   *
28   REP   -5   
38   REP   -5   
15   REP   -6   
17   REP   -6   
24   REP   -6   
32   REP   -6   
37   REP   -6   
21   REP   -7   
7   REP   -8   
16   REP   -8   
40   REP   -8   
26   REP   -10   
30   REP   -10   
6   REP   -11   
11   REP   -13   
23   REP   -14   
5   REP   -16   
4   REP   -18   
2   REP   -19   
1   REP   -25   

Well, Florida is polarized, a republican gerrymander, FL republicans will probably hold this chamber until (at least) the next redistricting.
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« Reply #10 on: May 03, 2014, 05:47:39 pm »

Georgia

SD   INC   PVI
SD 1           REP   -15
SD 2    DEM   19
SD 3           REP   -17
SD 4    REP   -19
SD 5    DEM   14
SD 6    REP   -3
SD 7    REP   -24
SD 8    REP   -10
SD 9    REP   -18
SD 10   DEM   24
SD 11   REP   -14
SD 12   DEM   12
SD 13   REP   -18
SD 14   REP   -27
SD 15   DEM   19
SD 16   REP   -21
SD 17   REP   -14
SD 18   REP   -16
SD 19   REP   -20
SD 20   REP   -18
SD 21   REP   -27
SD 22   DEM   19
SD 23   REP   -9
SD 24   REP   -21
SD 25   REP   -15
SD 26   DEM   16
SD 27   REP   -33
SD 28   REP   -25
SD 29   REP   -15
SD 30   REP   -20
SD 31   REP   -26
SD 32   REP   -17
SD 33   DEM   6
SD 34   DEM   29
SD 35   DEM   15
SD 36   DEM   34
SD 37   REP   -19
SD 38   DEM   25
SD 39   DEM   31
SD 40   REP   -2
SD 41   DEM   24
SD 42   DEM   23
SD 43   DEM   17
SD 44   DEM   32
SD 45   REP   -19
SD 46   REP   -14
SD 47   REP   -18
SD 48   REP   -10
SD 49   REP   -30
SD 50   REP   -32
SD 51   REP   -33
SD 52   REP   -24
SD 53   REP   -27
SD 54   REP   -28
SD 55   DEM   21
SD 56   REP   -11



SD   INC   PVI   
SD 36   DEM   34   
SD 44   DEM   32   
SD 39   DEM   31   
SD 34   DEM   29   
SD 38   DEM   25   
SD 10   DEM   24   
SD 41   DEM   24   
SD 42   DEM   23   
SD 55   DEM   21   
SD 2    DEM   19   
SD 15   DEM   19   
SD 22   DEM   19   
SD 43   DEM   17   
SD 26   DEM   16   
SD 35   DEM   15   
SD 5           DEM   14   
SD 12   DEM   12   
SD 33   DEM   6   
SD 40   REP   -2   **
SD 6           REP   -3   
SD 23   REP   -9   
SD 8           REP   -10   
SD 48   REP   -10   
SD 56   REP   -11   
SD 11   REP   -14   
SD 17   REP   -14   
SD 46   REP   -14   
SD 1    REP   -15   
SD 25   REP   -15   
SD 29   REP   -15   
SD 18   REP   -16   
SD 3           REP   -17   
SD 32   REP   -17   
SD 9           REP   -18   
SD 13   REP   -18   
SD 20   REP   -18   
SD 47   REP   -18   
SD 4     REP   -19   
SD 37   REP   -19   
SD 45   REP   -19   
SD 19   REP   -20   
SD 30   REP   -20   
SD 16   REP   -21   
SD 24   REP   -21   
SD 7     REP   -24   
SD 52   REP   -24   
SD 28   REP   -25   
SD 31   REP   -26   
SD 14   REP   -27   
SD 21   REP   -27   
SD 53   REP   -27   
SD 54   REP   -28   
SD 49   REP   -30   
SD 50   REP   -32   
SD 27   REP   -33   
SD 51   REP   -33   

A blatant rep gerrymander, the  * isnít for the decisive senate district, but for the decisive senate district for the gop supermajority.  It is likely the GA democratic party will finally hold at least 1/3 of the seats before the end of the decade. But they must absolutely win the governorship in 2018 if they donít want to be the minority party until 2030!!!!
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« Reply #11 on: May 03, 2014, 05:52:45 pm »

Hawaii
http://hawaii.gov/elections/maps/2012/ISLAND%20OF%20HAWAII.pdf

SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   30
2   DEM   27
3   DEM   16
4   DEM   23
5   DEM   28
6   DEM   15
7   DEM   26
8   DEM   23
9   REP   13
10   DEM   25
11   DEM   23
12   DEM   18
13   DEM   21
14   DEM   23
15   DEM   19
16   DEM   21
17   DEM   22
18   DEM   16
19   DEM   13
20   DEM   12
21   DEM   20
22   DEM   16
23   DEM   7
24   DEM   18
25   DEM   16

SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   30
5   DEM   28
2   DEM   27
7   DEM   26
10   DEM   25
4   DEM   23
8   DEM   23
11   DEM   23
14   DEM   23
17   DEM   22
13   DEM   21
16   DEM   21
21   DEM   20
15   DEM   19
12   DEM   18
24   DEM   18
3   DEM   16
18   DEM   16
22   DEM   16
25   DEM   16
6   DEM   15
9   REP   13
19   DEM   13
20   DEM   12
23   DEM   7
Well, nothing to say. The HI GOP party isnít especially bad (Lingle, Djou,Ö) but seriously, the HA state senate could definitely be the only upper chamber to have no republicans elected when the rep incumbent will retire.
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« Reply #12 on: May 03, 2014, 05:54:15 pm »

Idaho
http://www.sos.idaho.gov/elect/idmap2.pdf

SD   INC   PVI
LD 1    REP   -15
LD 2    REP   -23
LD 3    REP   -21
LD 4    REP   -10
LD 5    DEM   -4
LD 6    REP   -14
LD 7    REP   -20
LD 8    REP   -21
LD 9           REP   -25
LD 10   REP   -14
LD 11   REP   -27
LD 12   REP   -19
LD 13   REP   -21
LD 14   REP   -21
LD 15   REP   -10
LD 16   DEM   1
LD 17   DEM   5
LD 18   DEM   0
LD 19   DEM   13
LD 20   REP   -18
LD 21   REP   -17
LD 22   REP   -22
LD 23   REP   -24
LD 24   REP   -19
LD 25   REP   -28
LD 26   DEM   -4
LD 27   REP   -34
LD 28   REP   -18
LD 29   DEM   -6
LD 30   REP   -31
LD 31   REP   -28
LD 32   REP   -32
LD 33   REP   -19
LD 34   REP   -43
LD 35   REP   -37


SD   INC   PVI
LD 19   DEM   13
LD 17   DEM   5
LD 16   DEM   1
LD 18   DEM   0
LD  5    DEM   -4
LD 26   DEM   -4
LD 29   DEM   -6
LD 4    REP   -10
LD 15   REP   -10
LD 6    REP   -14
LD 10   REP   -14
LD 1    REP   -15
LD 21   REP   -17
LD 20   REP   -18
LD 28   REP   -18
LD 12   REP   -19
LD 24   REP   -19
LD 33   REP   -19
LD 7    REP   -20
LD 3    REP   -21
LD 8    REP   -21
LD 13   REP   -21
LD 14   REP   -21
LD 22   REP   -22
LD 2    REP   -23
LD 23   REP   -24
LD 9    REP   -25
LD 11   REP   -27
LD 25   REP   -28
LD 31   REP   -28
LD 30   REP   -31
LD 32   REP   -32
LD 27   REP   -34
LD 35   REP   -37
LD 34   REP   -43

As you can see, the ID democratic party is really effective, they basically hold all competitive districts. But itís Idaho unfortunately for them.
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« Reply #13 on: May 03, 2014, 05:56:13 pm »

Illinois
http://www.dot.state.il.us/maps/legislative.htm


1 DEM +28 (H)
2 DEM +30 (H)
3 DEM +38 (B)
4 DEM +30 (B)
5 DEM +38 (B)
6 DEM +24
7 DEM +33
8 DEM +13
9 DEM +16
10 DEM +7
11 DEM +18 (H)
12 DEM +17
13 DEM +39 (B)
14 DEM +29 (B)
15 DEM +29 (B)
16 DEM +32 (B)
17 DEM +32 (B)
18 DEM +6
19 DEM +8
20 DEM +28 (H)
21 REP -4
22 DEM +10
23 DEM +2
24 REP -3
25 REP -6
26 REP -6
27 REP -1
28 DEM +5
29 DEM +10
30 DEM +15
31 DEM +0
32 REP -5
33 REP -5
34 DEM +8
35 REP -3
36 DEM +7
37 REP -5
38 REP -1
39 DEM +19
40 DEM +7
41 REP -4
42 DEM +10
43 DEM +12
44 REP -10
45 REP -7
46 DEM +8
47 DEM -5
48 DEM +3
49 DEM +1
50 REP -8
51 REP -14
52 DEM +8
53 REP -13
54 REP -10
55 REP -12
56 DEM +3
57 DEM +12
58 REP -4
59 DEM -7
Based on the 2004 and the 2008 results. A big thank to Muon.
This will be updated when the IL 2012 results will be available.

Well, IL democrats have the supermajority (3/5 in Illinois). As you can see, the senate map is a dem gerrymander.  But even with the gerrymander, Chicago is too heavily democrat, with some D+30 districts. So even with this gerrymander, the IL republican party could be competitive in a lot of districts (D+0,D+1,D+2,Ö Donít forget itís Obama). But theyíre not.  They have definitely no dem leaning seat and the democrats are extremely competitive in some competitive areas. Southern Illinois for example. The 47 th seat is basically held by a DINO pro gun anti SSM, a bit a WV democrat (is it Appalachia). And the 2 houses district of the 47th senate seat are held by democrats too. The IL democratic party successfully manages to be competitive in some conservative areas.  I guess Southern Illinois was historically democrat?
« Last Edit: May 05, 2014, 08:00:33 am by Midwest Governor windjammer »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: May 03, 2014, 05:57:03 pm »

Indiana
http://www.in.gov/sos/elections/files/Senate_Districts__-_Adopted_2011.pdf

SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   5
2   DEM   33
3   DEM   25
4   DEM   7
5   REP   -6
6   REP   -9
7   REP   -11
8   DEM   0
9   REP   -21
10   DEM   12
11   REP   -6
12   REP   -14
13   REP   -14
14   REP   -14
15   REP   -4
16   REP   -10
17   REP   -16
18   REP   -14
19   REP   -17
20   REP   -18
21   REP   -12
22   REP   -1
23   REP   -13
24   REP   -17
25   DEM   4
26   REP   -6
27   REP   -13
28   REP   -8
29   REP   -1
30   REP   2
31   REP   -4
32   REP   -6
33   DEM   32
34   DEM   13
35   REP   -7
36   REP   -8
37   REP   -20
38   DEM   0
39   REP   -15
40   DEM   10
41   REP   -15
42   REP   -12
43   REP   -18
44   REP   -12
45   REP   -9
46   REP   -6
47   DEM   -7
48   DEM   -9
49   REP   -10
50   REP   -7


SD   INC   PVI   
2   DEM   33   
33   DEM   32   
3   DEM   25   
34   DEM   13   
10   DEM   12   
40   DEM   10   
4   DEM   7   
1   DEM   5   
25   DEM   4   
30   REP   2   
8   DEM   0   
38   DEM   0   
22   REP   -1   
29   REP   -1   
15   REP   -4   
31   REP   -4   
5   REP   -6   
11   REP   -6   
26   REP   -6   
32   REP   -6   
46   REP   -6   
35   REP   -7   
47   DEM   -7   
50   REP   -7   
28   REP   -8   *
36   REP   -8   
6   REP   -9   
45   REP   -9   
48   DEM   -9   
16   REP   -10   
49   REP   -10   
7   REP   -11   
21   REP   -12   
42   REP   -12   
44   REP   -12   
23   REP   -13   
27   REP   -13   
12   REP   -14   
13   REP   -14   
14   REP   -14   
18   REP   -14   
39   REP   -15   
41   REP   -15   
17   REP   -16   
19   REP   -17   
24   REP   -17   
20   REP   -18   
43   REP   -18   
37   REP   -20   
9   REP   -21   

A blatant rep gerrymander in Indiana.  But seriously, the problem for IN democrats is that some areas are too heavily democratic. So being competitive everywhere is difficult. Although theyíre not a bad party at all, they are currently holding some conservative districts.
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« Reply #15 on: May 03, 2014, 05:58:08 pm »

Iowa


SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -13
2   REP   -27
3   REP   -13
4   REP   -4
5   DEM   -4
6   REP   -5
7   REP   4
8   DEM   2
9   REP   -8
10   REP   -7
11   REP   -10
12   REP   -11
13   REP   -4
14   REP   -4
15   DEM   0
16   DEM   13
17   DEM   15
18   DEM   17
19   REP   -5
20   REP   -5
21   DEM   8
22   REP   -4
23   DEM   9
24   REP   -2
25   REP   -7
26   DEM   5
27   DEM   3
28   REP   4
29   DEM   2
30   DEM   2
31   DEM   16
32   DEM   3
33   DEM   10
34   DEM   2
35   DEM   13
36   DEM   2
37   DEM   9
38   REP   -1
39   REP   2
40   REP   -11
41   REP   2
42   DEM   0
43   DEM   22
44   DEM   5
45   DEM   14
46   DEM   4
47   REP   0
48   REP   1
49   DEM   5
50   DEM   10


SD   INC   PVI
43   DEM   22
18   DEM   17
31   DEM   16
17   DEM   15
45   DEM   14
16   DEM   13
35   DEM   13
33   DEM   10
50   DEM   10
23   DEM   9
37   DEM   9
21   DEM   8
26   DEM   5
44   DEM   5
49   DEM   5
7   REP   4
28   REP   4
46   DEM   4
27   DEM   3
32   DEM   3
8   DEM   2
29   DEM   2
30   DEM   2
34   DEM   2
36   DEM   2     *
39   REP   2
41   REP   2
48   REP   1
15   DEM   0
42   DEM   0
47   REP   0
38   REP   -1
24   REP   -2
4   REP   -4
5   DEM   -4
13   REP   -4
14   REP   -4
22   REP   -4
6   REP   -5
19   REP   -5
20   REP   -5
10   REP   -7
25   REP   -7
9   REP   -8
11   REP   -10
12   REP   -11
40   REP   -11
1   REP   -13
3   REP   -13
2   REP   -27

Iowa shows how an independant redistricting commission is effective. A clean map, many competitive seats. The IA democrats may definitely lose their 1 seat majority. But fortunately, Branstad has some problems actually so it wonít be a republican landslide. And the IA lieutenant governor doesnít preside/doesnít break the tie. So if the results are 25-25, no party would control the chamber.
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« Reply #16 on: May 03, 2014, 06:00:49 pm »

Kansas



SD   INC   PVI
1   R   -20
2   D   10
3   D   -3
4   D   29
5   R   -5
6   D   11
7   R   0
8   R   -9
9   R   -12
10   R   -9
11   R   -15
12   R   -17
13   R   -10
14   R   -24
15   R   -18
16   R   -20
17   R   -9
18   D   -7
19   D   -2
20   R   -7
21   R   -5
22   D   -11
23   R   -13
24   R   -19
25   R   -3
26   R   -13
27   R   -20
28   R   -7
29   D   17
30   R   -9
31   R   -16
32   R   -20
33   R   -28
34   R   -17
35   R   -23
36   R   -30
37   R   -19
38   R   -25
39   R   -28
40   R   -29



SD   INC   PVI   
4   D   29   
29   D   17   
6   D   11   
2   D   10   
7   R   0   
19   D   -2   
3   D   -3   
25   R   -3   
5   R   -5   
21   R   -5   
18   D   -7   
20   R   -7   
28   R   -7   
8   R   -9   *
10   R   -9   
17   R   -9   
30   R   -9   
13   R   -10   
22   D   -11   
9   R   -12   
23   R   -13   
26   R   -13   
11   R   -15   
31   R   -16   
12   R   -17   
34   R   -17   
15   R   -18   
24   R   -19   
37   R   -19   
1   R   -20   
16   R   -20   
27   R   -20   
32   R   -20   
35   R   -23   
14   R   -24   
38   R   -25   
33   R   -28   
39   R   -28   
40   R   -29   
36   R   -30   

Well, this map has been drawn by the court because the ďmoderateĒ republicans and the ďconservativeĒ republicans couldnít agree. 2012 will be remembered as the Great Purge for the KS GOP party. Compared with Brownback and the other crazy republicans, Stalin looks like a moderate willing to make compromise with the other ideologies of this party. The KS moderate republicans are definitely DEAD.
It will be difficult for the democrats to end the KS supermajority, but thatís a possibility if Davis wins (and thatís unlikely).
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« Reply #17 on: May 03, 2014, 06:02:40 pm »

Kentucky



SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    R   -17
SD 2    I   -18
SD  3   R   -16
SD 4    D   -12
SD 5    R   -18
SD 6    D   -17
SD 7    D   -10
SD 8    R   -10
SD 9    R   -22
SD 10   D   -13
SD 11   R   -21
SD 12   R   -10
SD 13   D   11
SD 14   R   -15
SD 15   R   -26
SD 16   R   -28
SD 17   R   -18
SD 18   D   -11
SD 19   D   2
SD 20   R   -14
SD 21   R   -27
SD 22   R   -21
SD 23   R   -12
SD 24   R   -15
SD 25   R   -28
SD 26   R   -13
SD 27   D   -13
SD 28   D   -9
SD 29   D   -21
SD 30   R   -25
SD 31   D   -19
SD 32   R   -13
SD 33   D   32
SD 34   R   -18
SD 35   D   22
SD 36   R   -9
SD 37   D   -3
SD 38   R   -16


SD   INC   PVI   
SD 33   D   32   
SD 35   D   22   
SD 13   D   11   
SD 19   D   2   
SD 37   D   -3   
SD 28   D   -9   
SD 36   R   -9   
SD 7    D   -10   
SD 8    R   -10   
SD 12   R   -10   
SD 18   D   -11   
SD 4    D   -12   
SD 23   R   -12   
SD 10   D   -13   
SD 26   R   -13   
SD 27   D   -13   
SD 32   R   -13   
SD 20   R   -14   
SD 14   R   -15   *
SD 24   R   -15   
SD 3    R   -16   
SD 38   R   -16   
SD 1    R   -17   
SD 6    D   -17   
SD 2    I   -18   
SD 5    R   -18   
SD 17   R   -18   
SD 34   R   -18   
SD 31   D   -19   
SD 11   R   -21   
SD 22   R   -21   
SD 29   D   -21   
SD 9    R   -22   
SD 30   R   -25   
SD 15   R   -26   
SD 21   R   -27   
SD 16   R   -28   
SD 25   R   -28   

Well, some conservatives districts held in Eastern Kentucky, Kentucky democrats arenít dead yet. I will make a longer analysis (making a more local PVI,Ö) in the coming weeks.
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« Reply #18 on: May 03, 2014, 06:04:44 pm »

Louisiana

Thank you Miles for having made the PVI

SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -24
2   DEM   12
3   DEM   22
4   DEM   30
5   DEM   32
6   REP   -26
7   DEM   12
8   REP   -10
9   REP   -28
10   REP   -30
11   REP   -32
12   DEM   -20
13   REP   -42
14   DEM   30
15   DEM   22
16   REP   -24
17   REP   -10
18   REP   -32
19   DEM   -12
20   REP   -28
21   REP   -18
22   REP   -20
23   REP   -32
24   REP   10
25   REP   -28
26   REP   -26
27   REP   -8
28   DEM   -20
29   DEM   10
30   REP   -32
31   REP   -26
32   REP   -30
33   REP   -28
34   DEM   16
35   REP   -38
36   REP   -24
37   REP   -22
38   REP   -14
39   DEM   20


SD   INC   PVI
5   DEM   32
4   DEM   30
14   DEM   30
3   DEM   22
15   DEM   22
39   DEM   20
34   DEM   16
2   DEM   12
7   DEM   12
24   REP   10
29   DEM   10
27   REP   -8
8   REP   -10
17   REP   -10
19   DEM   -12
38   REP   -14
21   REP   -18
12   DEM   -20
22   REP   -20
28   DEM   -20
37   REP   -22
1   REP   -24
16   REP   -24
36   REP   -24
6   REP   -26
26   REP   -26
31   REP   -26
9   REP   -28
20   REP   -28
25   REP   -28
33   REP   -28
10   REP   -30
32   REP   -30
11   REP   -32
18   REP   -32
23   REP   -32
30   REP   -32
35   REP   -38
13   REP   -42




Miles' comment about Louisiana:

Quote from: Miles
2011 was the first time in modern history that Republicans controlled the redistricting process in LA. One dynamic that helped the Republicans was the population growth around the Florida Parishes and the loss around New Orleans. Republicans added two black majority seats in the north, which brought the total of majority-minority seats to 11. Thanks to party switchers, Republicans now hold a supermajority. The two best pickup targets for Democrats are SD24 and SD17. Both Republican incumbents, Elbert Guillory and Rick Ward, switched parties. For Republicans looking to expand their majority the best chances would be SD 12 and SD28. Though a survivor, Ben Nevers (D) will be term-limited, leaving this 65% Romney seat open. IN SD28, Eric LaFleur (D), who may still run again, holds a similarly partisan seat but won by a comfortable margin in 2011 and is popular.
« Last Edit: May 06, 2014, 02:54:34 am by Midwest Governor windjammer »Logged

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« Reply #19 on: May 03, 2014, 06:06:29 pm »

Maine
http://www.maine.gov/sos/cec/elec/apport/statewidesenate.pdf

SD   PVI
1   9
2   -8
3   -1
4   -5
5   8
6   -2
7   8
8   -3
9   4
10   -8
11   3
12   9
13   2
14   2
15   3
16   8
17   6
18   6
19   3
20   3
21   10
22   0
23   5
24   10
25   8
26   1
27   27
28   16
29   16
30   4
31   9
32   9
33   5
34   2
35   8


SD   PVI   
27   27   
28   16   
29   16   
21   10   
24   10   
1   9   
12   9   
31   9   
32   9   
5   8   
7   8   
16   8   
25   8   
35   8   
17   6   
18   6   
23   5   *
33   5   
9   4   
30   4   
11   3   
15   3   
19   3   
20   3   
13   2   
14   2   
34   2   
26   1   
22   0   
3   -1   
6   -2   
8   -3   
4   -5   
2   -8   
10   -8   

I have chosen deliberately not to make the incumbent, simply because districts have been renumbered (so it means nothing).This map will be the ME state senate map after the 2014 elections.
ME democrats will probably keep their majority. Even if Lepage wins because of Cutler, the ME GOP party is probably too damages because of him.
EDIT: You know the guy who made some racist comments about Obama, who wanted to legalize Child Labor,...
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« Reply #20 on: May 03, 2014, 06:08:14 pm »

Maryland: Sorry, but I have nothing about Maryland. Dave Redistricting doesnít work for this state Sad.
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« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2014, 06:09:24 pm »

Massachussetts
http://www.lsgelections.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Senate-Districts.jpg

SD    INC   PVI
1   DEM   23
2   DEM   0
3   DEM   11
4   DEM   16
5   DEM   6
6   DEM   4
7   DEM   7
8   DEM   9
9   REP   0
10   DEM   5
11   DEM   24
12   DEM   5
13   REP   8
14   DEM   25
15   DEM   6
16   DEM   25
17   DEM   9
18   DEM   9
19   DEM   8
20   DEM   22
21   DEM   8
22   DEM   27
23   DEM   7
24   DEM   4
25   DEM   10
26   REP   3
27   DEM   6
28   DEM   0
29   DEM   0
30   DEM   7
31   REP   -1
32   DEM   28
33   DEM   39
34   DEM   18
35   DEM   22
36   DEM   10
37   DEM   4
38   DEM   2
39   DEM   0
40   DEM   -1




SD         INC         PVI
33   DEM   39
32   DEM   28
22   DEM   27
14   DEM   25
16   DEM   25
11   DEM   24
1   DEM   23
20   DEM   22
35   DEM   22
34   DEM   18
4   DEM   16
3   DEM   11
25   DEM   10
36   DEM   10
8   DEM   9
17   DEM   9
18   DEM   9
13   REP   8
19   DEM   8
21   DEM   8
7   DEM   7
23   DEM   7
30   DEM   7
5   DEM   6
15   DEM   6
27   DEM   6
10   DEM   5
12   DEM   5
6   DEM   4
24   DEM   4
37   DEM   4
26   REP   3
38   DEM   2
2   DEM   0
9   REP   0
28   DEM   0
29   DEM   0
39   DEM   0
31   REP   -1
40   DEM   -1
Well, funny to see the MA democratic party currently holds the least conservative district Tongue.
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« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2014, 06:10:42 pm »

Michigan



SD   INC   PVI   
1   DEM   26   
2   DEM   29   
3   DEM   33   
4   DEM   31   
5   DEM   30   
6   DEM   13   
7   REP   -2   
8   DEM   -5   
9   DEM   12   
10   REP   -3   
11   REP   22   
12   REP   -2   
13   REP   -2   
14   DEM   -3   
15   REP   -4   
16   REP   -6   
17   REP   -2   
18   DEM   21   
19   RPE   -4   
20   REP   6   
21   REP   -4   
22   REP   -8   
23   DEM   14   
24   REP   -1   
25   REP   -5   
26   REP   -6   
27   DEM   23   
28   REP   -12   
29   REP   2   
30   REP   -17   
31   REP   -2   
32   REP   3   
33   REP   -2   
34   REP   4   
35   REP   -5   
36   REP   -6   
37   REP   -7   
38   REP   -1   

SD   INC   PVI   
3   DEM   33   
4   DEM   31   
5   DEM   30   
2   DEM   29   
1   DEM   26   
27   DEM   23   
11   REP   22   
18   DEM   21   
23   DEM   14   
6   DEM   13   
9   DEM   12   
20   REP   6   
34   REP   4   
32   REP   3   
29   REP   2   
24   REP   -1   
38   REP   -1   
7   REP   -2   
12   REP   -2   *
13   REP   -2   
17   REP   -2   
31   REP   -2   
33   REP   -2   
10   REP   -3   
14   DEM   -3   
15   REP   -4   
19   RPE   -4   
21   REP   -4   
8   DEM   -5   
25   REP   -5   
35   REP   -5   
16   REP   -6   
26   REP   -6   
36   REP   -6   
37   REP   -7   
22   REP   -8   
28   REP   -12   
30   REP   -17   

As you can see, a republican gerrymander. But I seriously believe the democrats could gain some seats (not difficult). But in order to flip this chamber, Snyder would need to be defeated.
MI democrats have a 9 point lead according to the last PPP survey about Michigan.
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« Reply #23 on: May 03, 2014, 06:12:51 pm »

Minnesota

SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    DEM   -5
SD 2    DEM   -6
SD 3    DEM   7
SD 4     DEM   1
SD 5    DEM   -1
SD 6    DEM   12
SD 7    DEM   18
SD 8    REP   -10
SD 9    REP   -13
SD 10   REP   -7
SD 11   DEM   3
SD 12   REP   -9
SD 13   REP   -10
SD 14   DEM   0
SD 15   REP   -12
SD 16   REP   -7
SD 17   DEM   -4
SD 18   REP   -12
SD 19   DEM   4
SD 20   DEM   -3
SD 21   DEM   -4
SD 22   REP   -7
SD 23   REP   -7
SD 24   DEM   -5
SD 25   REP   -2
SD 26   REP   -1
SD 27   DEM   7
SD 28   REP   4
SD 29   REP   -12
SD 30   REP   -13
SD 31   REP   -14
SD 32   REP   -9
SD 33   REP   -10
SD 34   REP   -8
SD 35   REP   -9
SD 36   DEM   -1
SD 37   DEM   -1
SD 38   REP   -6
SD 39   REP   -4
SD 40   DEM   16
SD 41   DEM   8
SD 42   DEM   2
SD 43   DEM   5
SD 44   DEM   0
SD 45   DEM   9
SD 46   DEM   14
SD 47   REP   -12
SD 48   REP   -1
SD 49   DEM   1
SD 50   DEM   8
SD 51   DEM   2
SD 52   DEM   5
SD 53   DEM   1
SD 54   DEM   1
SD 55   REP   -9
SD 56   REP   -3
SD 57   DEM   -2
SD 58   REP   -9
SD 59   DEM   31
SD 60   DEM   27
SD 61   DEM   28
SD 62   DEM   37
SD 63   DEM   27
SD 64   DEM   23
SD 65   DEM   29
SD 66   DEM   19
SD 67   DEM   23

SD   INC   PVI
SD 62   DEM   37
SD 59   DEM   31
SD 65   DEM   29
SD 61   DEM   28
SD 60   DEM   27
SD 63   DEM   27
SD 64   DEM   23
SD 67   DEM   23
SD 66   DEM   19
SD 7    DEM   18
SD 40   DEM   16
SD 46   DEM   14
SD 6    DEM   12
SD 45   DEM   9
SD 41   DEM   8
SD 50   DEM   8
SD 3    DEM   7
SD 27   DEM   7
SD 43   DEM   5
SD 52   DEM   5
SD 19   DEM   4
SD 28   REP   4
SD 11   DEM   3
SD 42   DEM   2
SD 51   DEM   2
SD 4    DEM   1
SD 49   DEM   1
SD 53   DEM   1
SD 54   DEM   1
SD 14   DEM   0
SD 44   DEM   0
SD 5    DEM   -1
SD 26   REP   -1
SD 36   DEM   -1     *
SD 37   DEM   -1
SD 48   REP   -1
SD 25   REP   -2
SD 57   DEM   -2
SD 20   DEM   -3
SD 56   REP   -3
SD 17   DEM   -4
SD 21   DEM   -4
SD 39   REP   -4
SD 1    DEM   -5
SD 24   DEM   -5
SD 2    DEM   -6
SD 38   REP   -6
SD 10   REP   -7
SD 16   REP   -7
SD 22   REP   -7
SD 23   REP   -7
SD 34   REP   -8
SD 12   REP   -9
SD 32   REP   -9
SD 35   REP   -9
SD 55   REP   -9
SD 58   REP   -9
SD 8    REP   -10
SD 13   REP   -10
SD 33   REP   -10
SD 15   REP   -12
SD 18   REP   -12
SD 29   REP   -12
SD 47   REP   -12
SD 9    REP   -13
SD 30   REP   -13
SD 31   REP   -14

As you can see, redistricting has favored republicans (it was drawn by the court). MN democrats are still strong in some rep leaning districts, most of them are (what a surprise) in the Collin Petersonís district. Thatís why I believe when Peterson will be retiring, some democrats could compete in his district. This chamber will be up for reelection in 2016. And MN democrats are the definition of Freedom Fighters: minimum wage increase, SSM, and some other progressive bills. (And BRTD lives here!!!)
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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
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King Francis I
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« Reply #24 on: May 03, 2014, 06:13:54 pm »

Mississippi

http://www.maris.state.ms.us/pdf/MS2010SenateDist/Senate_May3_2012.pdf

SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -24
2   DEM   -15
3   REP   -23
4   REP   -27
5   DEM   -29
6   REP   -29
7   DEM   -4
8   DEM   -10
9   REP   -12
10   DEM   -1
11   DEM   21
12   DEM   18
13   DEM   25
14   REP   -17
15   REP   -15
16   DEM   14
17   REP   -14
18   REP   -21
19   REP   -19
20   REP   -31
21   DEM   17
22   REP   6
23   REP   -6
24   DEM   18
25   REP   -27
26   DEM   17
27   DEM   23
28   DEM   31
29   DEM   6
30   REP   -28
31   REP   -16
32   DEM   12
33   REP   -22
34   DEM   8
35   REP   -20
36   DEM   14
37   REP   -14
38   DEM   12
39   REP   -19
40   REP   -28
41   REP   -14
42   REP   -35
43   REP   -26
44   REP   -31
45   REP   -20
46   REP   -29
47   REP   -25
48   DEM   -3
49   REP   -21
50   REP   -21
51   REP   -17
52   REP   -21



SD   INC   PVI   
28   DEM   31   
13   DEM   25   
27   DEM   23   
11   DEM   21   
12   DEM   18   
24   DEM   18   
21   DEM   17   
26   DEM   17   
16   DEM   14   
36   DEM   14   
32   DEM   12   
38   DEM   12   
34   DEM   8   
22   REP   6   
29   DEM   6   
10   DEM   -1   
48   DEM   -3   
7   DEM   -4   
23   REP   -6   
8   DEM   -10   
9   REP   -12   
17   REP   -14   
37   REP   -14   
41   REP   -14   
2   DEM   -15   
15   REP   -15   *
31   REP   -16   
14   REP   -17   
51   REP   -17   
19   REP   -19   
39   REP   -19   
35   REP   -20   
45   REP   -20   
18   REP   -21   
49   REP   -21   
50   REP   -21   
52   REP   -21   
33   REP   -22   
3   REP   -23   
1   REP   -24   
47   REP   -25   
43   REP   -26   
4   REP   -27   
25   REP   -27   
30   REP   -28   
40   REP   -28   
5   DEM   -29   
6   REP   -29   
46   REP   -29   
20   REP   -31   
44   REP   -31   
42   REP   -35   

Well, Blue dogs are still alive in some districts. And all of them are from Childersí former district. Thatís why Ii believe Childers could win with Mcdaniel, because he would definitely overperform this region full of blue dogs.
And the D+6 district held by a republican, I guess it was because of a low black turnout. But Iím sure the MS democrats can pick up this seat!
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Flo   it seems like everytime i talk to you i have some sort of illness
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