Windjammer Partisan Voting Index for US state senates.

[windjammer]

Missouri



SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   0
2   REP   -12
3   REP   -6
4   DEM   24
5   DEM   35
6   REP   -19
7   DEM   17
8   REP   -10
9   DEM   30
10   DEM   -13
11   DEM   -1
12   REP   -15
13   DEM   23
14   DEM   29
15   REP   -13
16   REP   -18
17   REP   -3
18   REP   -14
19   REP   0
20   REP   -22
21   REP   -12
22   VACANT   -5
23   REP   -9
24   REP   2
25   REP   -18
26   REP   -14
27   REP   -21
28   REP   -19
29   REP   -24
30   REP   -9
31   REP   -16
32   REP   -24
33   REP   -21
34   REP   -7


SD   INC   PVI
5   DEM   35
9   DEM   30
14   DEM   29
4   DEM   24
13   DEM   23
7   DEM   17
24   REP   2
1   DEM   0
19   REP   0
11   DEM   -1
17   REP   -3
22   VACANT   -5
3   REP   -6
34   REP   -7
23   REP   -9
30   REP   -9
8   REP   -10
2   REP   -12
21   REP   -12
10   DEM   -13
15   REP   -13
18   REP   -14
26   REP   -14
12   REP   -15
31   REP   -16
16   REP   -18
25   REP   -18
6   REP   -19
28   REP   -19
27   REP   -21
33   REP   -21
20   REP   -22
29   REP   -24
32   REP   -24

Well, a rep gerrymander that definitely shows the biggest problem of MO democrats: their electoral base is too concentrated. Thanks black MO democrats who have voted to override Nixon’s veto. We could have had a cleaner map.

[windjammer]

Montana: Not available, sorry.

[windjammer]

Nebraska:

http://nebraskalegislature.gov/about/leg_map.php (the site doesn’t want to work, I hope it will soon)

SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -15
2   REP   -17
3   REP   -11
4   REP   -14
5   DEM   4
6   REP   -7
7   DEM   9
8   DEM   9
9   DEM   6
10   REP   -5
11   IND   37
12   DEM   -8
13   DEM   15
14   REP   -13
15   REP   -11
16   REP   -18
17   REP   -10
18   REP   -3
19   REP   -25
20   DEM   -9
21   DEM   -5
22   REP   -26
23   REP   -19
24   RPE   -24
25   REP   -12
26   DEM   1
27   REP   2
28   DEM   8
29   DEM   -2
30   DEM   -12
31   DEM   -15
32   DEM   -12
33   REP   -19
34   DEM   -23
35   REP   -13
36   REP   -28
37   REP   -23
38   REP   -27
39   REP   -20
40   REP   -27
41   DEM   -25
42   REP   -23
43   REP   -27
44   REP   -31
45   DEM   -12
46   DEM   1
47   REP   -30
48   REP   -22
49   REP   -12


SD   INC   PVI
11   IND   37
13   DEM   15
7   DEM   9
8   DEM   9
28   DEM   8
9   DEM   6
5   DEM   4
27   REP   2
26   DEM   1
46   DEM   1
29   DEM   -2
18   REP   -3
10   REP   -5
21   DEM   -5
6   REP   -7
12   DEM   -8
20   DEM   -9
17   REP   -10
3   REP   -11
15   REP   -11
25   REP   -12
30   DEM   -12
32   DEM   -12
45   DEM   -12
49   REP   -12
14   REP   -13
35   REP   -13
4   REP   -14
1   REP   -15
31   DEM   -15
2   REP   -17
16   REP   -18
23   REP   -19
33   REP   -19
39   REP   -20
48   REP   -22
34   DEM   -23
37   REP   -23
42   REP   -23
24   RPE   -24
19   REP   -25
41   DEM   -25
22   REP   -26
38   REP   -27
40   REP   -27
43   REP   -27
36   REP   -28
47   REP   -30
44   REP   -31

I’m really happy with the NE democrats! They can successfully hold some extremely conservative districts. I’m sure they could be able to have some success in the future, notably in NE-03, especially with the current Independent-turned democrat currently running for this office. NE democrats have a big advantage: LINCOLN. This town leans dem (but not so much). So if they elect an extremely popular mayor (a la Landrieu), they could definitely use him for higher offices! And the NE democratic seems to run good candidates, a bit like the Idaho democrats

[windjammer]

Nevada

http://www.leg.state.nv.us/Division/Research/Districts/Reapp/2011/Final/Senate/SEN-Dist-2011-ST-overview.pdf

SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   11
2   DEM   26
3   DEM   12
4   DEM   27
5   DEM   2
6   REP   2
7   DEM   11
8   REP   -2
9   DEM   5
10   DEM   16
11   DEM   10
12   REP   -9
13   DEM   13
14   REP   -8
15   REP   2
16   REP   -6
17   REP   -15
18   REP   -3
19   REP   -19
20   REP   -1
21   DEM   10



SD   INC   PVI   
4   DEM   27   
2   DEM   26   
10   DEM   16   
13   DEM   13   
3   DEM   12   
1   DEM   11   
7   DEM   11   
11   DEM   10   
21   DEM   10   
9   DEM   5   
5   DEM   2   *
6   REP   2   
15   REP   2   
20   REP   -1   
8   REP   -2   
18   REP   -3   
16   REP   -6   
14   REP   -8   
12   REP   -9   
17   REP   -15   
19   REP   -19   


Well, except Angle, NV republicans seem to be really strong. They basically hold some dem leaning seats. They hold a senate seat, the governor seat,… Fortunately, the leader of the NV democrats is a well-known bad ass .

[windjammer]

New Hampshire



SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    DEM   5
SD 2    REP   2
SD 3    REP   -1
SD 4    DEM   8
SD 5    DEM   16
SD 6    REP   -2
SD 7    DEM   0
SD 8    REP   0
SD 9    REP   -3
SD 10   DEM   14
SD 11   REP   -3
SD 12   DEM   -4
SD 13   DEM   7
SD 14   REP   -8
SD 15   DEM   12
SD 16   REP   -2
SD 17   REP   -3
SD 18   DEM   -1
SD 19   REP   -9
SD 20   DEM   2
SD 21   DEM   15
SD 22   REP   -10
SD 23   REP   -3
SD 24   REP   -2



SD   INC   PVI
SD 5           DEM   16
SD 21   DEM   15
SD 10   DEM   14
SD 15   DEM   12
SD 4    DEM   8
SD 13   DEM   7
SD 1    DEM   5
SD 2    REP   2
SD 20   DEM   2
SD 7    DEM   0
SD 8    REP   0
SD 3    REP   -1    *
SD 18   DEM   -1
SD 6    REP   -2
SD 16   REP   -2
SD 24   REP   -2
SD 9    REP   -3
SD 11   REP   -3
SD 17   REP   -3
SD 23   REP   -3
SD 12   DEM   -4
SD 14   REP   -8
SD 19   REP   -9
SD 22   REP   -10

I will just quote Sawx:

Updated Senate rankings:

• SD1: Safe D (D+4). A classic Democratic North Country district. Jeff Woodburn fits this place like a glove.
• SD2: Likely R (R+1). Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her 53% Obama seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. Easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has.
• SD3: Safe R (R+2). Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is. Name recognition alone will propel him to victory.
• SD4: Safe D (D+6). Ever since redistricting put Dover in here it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. Watters is a weak candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height and there's a moderate (read: not Woody), but overall, he should be safe.
• SD5: Safe D (D+15). It's based in Hanover and Claremont. Pierce is as safe as can be.
• SD6: Likely R (RW) (R+2). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. I like his chances if Cataldo retires (he's be 77), but he just got elected, so he's probably sticking around. Cataldo did around the same as Romney did, but he's very economically conservative.
• SD7: Lean D. (R+1) Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef was a horrible candidate. He got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments throughout his life. However, Youssef has decided to run again in 2014, and of course, if he wins, it's safe Democratic, but I'm not betting they'll be this lucky again. It's a toss-up if someone else gets the nominee - anyone is better than Youssef.
• SD8:(RW) (PW) (R+1). Odell is probably the most moderate of the Republicans here, and also has been floated for higher office. He's very prominent in the party, chairs the powerful Ways and Means Committee, and he greatly overperformed Romney in Romney. However, he will be 71, and a top candidate in JP Marzullo is running against him, so Odell may call it quits. It's Safe R with Odell, and a toss-up with Marzullo. Odell is retiring. This will be competitive
• SD9: Toss-Up. (R+3) Andy Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing in leadership, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Over the past year, he was caught calling governor Maggie Hassan a hag, compared Obamacare to a plane crash, and threatening to revoke a constituent's scholarship over him supporting marijuana legalization. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time and he has a good chance of losing.
• SD-10: Safe D. It's Keene. Who's going to run here, DW Perry?
• SD-11: Likely R (RW) (R+3). After the scandal at the LGC.
• SD-12: Toss-up/Tilt R (RW) (R+4). Peggy Gilmour only won by 1000 votes in this Republican-leaning district. She's also getting up there in age, and if she retires or Republicans recruit someone good, they have a much better chance at winning. After all, this is a 51.9% Romney district.
• SD-13: Likely D: (D+4) Lambert's win was a fluke, but a moderate could win this ancestrally Democratic district.
• SD-14: Safe R: Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got 40%. Write this place off.
• SD-15: Safe D: (D+10) The safest seat in the Union. Sylvia Larsen has been here since 1994, and this seat is reliably safe. She regularly comes close to 70% each time she runs.
• SD-16: Leans R (R+2). David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news is that a libertarian received 950 votes. The bad news is that Patrick Arnold, the Democratic nominee for Manchester mayor who was 940 votes away from beating Ted Gatsas in an off-off year, is considering a run in this district. With a stronger libertarian candidate or a candidate like Arnold, Boutin may very well fall.
• SD-17: Safe R. (R+3) Reagan is fairly moderate, and his district tilts Republican too. I think he's got this.
• SD-18: Toss-Up/Tilts D. (R+2) Donna Soucy won by much more than expected here. No real idea about Gail Barry, but Arthur Beaudry's an independent in every sense of the word. Should probably say a lot about her strength.
• SD-19: Safe R. (R+9) Rausch, even in a swing district, would be fine.
• SD-20: Safe D (RW). (D+1)  Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
• SD-21: Safe D. (D+14) Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 4 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
• SD-22: Safe R. (R+11) Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
• SD-23: Safe R. (R+4) Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside.
• SD-24: Leans R. (R+3) Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, a conservative who will sometimes beat Democrats, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark when SD-21 only leaned Democratic, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. This district is going to be a rough hit. She is pro-gay marriage. Once again, the right candidate can win here, Chris Muns has raised quite a bit of money for a State Senate campaign, and Democrats have lots of room to hit her, but it will be an uphill battle.

Gun to my head, I say Sanborn and Gilmour fall and both parties break even. For Democrats to take the Senate, they must hold all of their seats, obviously. The path to taking the Senate, however, must go through Andy Sanborn's seat. His last two controversies were overblown, but bullying a constituent into silence will not stand well. Then, they will have to win one of SD-2, SD-8 (which is possible thanks to a top-tier primary threat), SD-16, and SD-24. Preferably more would do for an insurance.

Strangely, we don't have the same PVI.

[windjammer]

New Jersey



SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   0
2   DEM   7
3   DEM   3
4   DEM   9
5   DEM   17
6   DEM   12
7   REP   11
8   REP   1
9   REP   -9
10   REP   -11
11   REP   3
12   REP   -6
13   REP   -8
14   DEM   5
15   DEM   20
16   REP   1
17   DEM   19
18   DEM   7
19   DEM   12
20   DEM   24
21   REP   -5
22   DEM   14
23   REP   -9
24   REP   -13
25   REP   -6
26   REP   -8
27   DEM   5
28   DEM   29
29   DEM   33
30   REP   -14
31   DEM   26
32   DEM   18
33   DEM   23
34   DEM   28
35   DEM   27
36   DEM   8
37   DEM   15
38   DEM   1
39   REP   -7
40   REP   -9


SD   INC   PVI   
29   DEM   33   
28   DEM   29   
34   DEM   28   
35   DEM   27   
31   DEM   26   
20   DEM   24   
33   DEM   23   
15   DEM   20   
17   DEM   19   
32   DEM   18   
5   DEM   17   
37   DEM   15   
22   DEM   14   
6   DEM   12   
19   DEM   12   
7   REP   11   
4   DEM   9   
36   DEM   8   
2   DEM   7   
18   DEM   7   *
14   DEM   5   
27   DEM   5   
3   DEM   3   
11   REP   3   
8   REP   1   
16   REP   1   
38   DEM   1   
1   DEM   0   
21   REP   -5   
12   REP   -6   
25   REP   -6   
39   REP   -7   
13   REP   -8   
26   REP   -8   
9   REP   -9   
23   REP   -9   
40   REP   -9   
10   REP   -11   
24   REP   -13   
30   REP   -14   

As you can see, the NJ republican party is effective. They would have probably gained control of this chamber if it wasn’t a dem gerrymander.

[windjammer]

New Mexico



SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    REP   -23
SD 2    REP   -28
SD 3        DEM   14
SD 4    DEM   16
SD 5    DEM   17
SD 6    DEM   24
SD 7    REP   -23
SD 8    DEM   16
SD 9    DEM   2
SD 10   REP   0
SD 11   DEM   21
SD 12   DEM   28
SD 13   DEM   16
SD 14   DEM   15
SD 15   DEM   6
SD 16   DEM   23
SD 17   DEM   13
SD 18   REP   -2
SD 19   REP   -9
SD 20   REP   -4
SD 21   REP   -8
SD 22   DEM   20
SD 23   REP   -1
SD 24   DEM   29
SD 25   DEM   27
SD 26   DEM   16
SD 27   REP   -10
SD 28   DEM   3
SD 29   DEM   4
SD 30   DEM   4
SD 31   DEM   13
SD 32   REP   -7
SD 33   REP   -17
SD 34   REP   -18
SD 35   DEM   -4
SD 36   REP   2
SD 37   DEM   1
SD 38   DEM   11
SD 39   DEM   7
SD 40   REP   -5
SD 41   REP   -11
SD 42   REP   -31


SD   INC   PVI   
SD 24   DEM   29   
SD 12   DEM   28   
SD 25   DEM   27   
SD 6    DEM   24   
SD 16   DEM   23   
SD 11   DEM   21   
SD 22   DEM   20   
SD 5    DEM   17   
SD 4    DEM   16   
SD 8    DEM   16   
SD 13   DEM   16   
SD 26   DEM   16   
SD 14   DEM   15   
SD 3    DEM   14   
SD 17   DEM   13   
SD 31   DEM   13   
SD 38   DEM   11   
SD 39   DEM   7   
SD 15   DEM   6   
SD 29   DEM   4   
SD 30   DEM   4   *
SD 28   DEM   3   
SD 9    DEM   2   
SD 36   REP   2   
SD 37   DEM   1   
SD 10   REP   0   
SD 23   REP   -1   
SD 18   REP   -2   
SD 20   REP   -4   
SD 35   DEM   -4   
SD 40   REP   -5   
SD 32   REP   -7   
SD 21   REP   -8   
SD 19   REP   -9   
SD 27   REP   -10   
SD 41   REP   -11   
SD 33   REP   -17   
SD 34   REP   -18   
SD 1    REP   -23   
SD 7    REP   -23   
SD 2    REP   -28   
SD 42   REP   -31   

Seriously, I have nothing to say .

[windjammer]

New York



SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    REP   0
SD 2    REP   -5
SD 3    REP   3
SD 4    REP   0
SD 5    REP   -2
SD 6    REP   2
SD 7    REP   2
SD 8    REP   3
SD 9    REP   1
SD 10   DEM   40
SD 11   DEM/IND   11
SD 12   DEM   29
SD 13   DEM   32
SD 14   DEM   39
SD 15   DEM   5
SD 16   DEM   19
SD 17   DEM/REP   -12
SD 18   DEM   41
SD 19   DEM   35
SD 20   DEM   42
SD 21   DEM   42
SD 22   REP   -3
SD 23   DEM/IND   14
SD 24   REP   -13
SD 25   DEM   45
SD 26   DEM   30
SD 27   DEM   32
SD 28   DEM   21
SD 29   DEM   39
SD 30   DEM   43
SD 31   DEM   38
SD 32   DEM   43
SD 33   DEM   42
SD 34   DEM/IND   21
SD 35   DEM   20
SD 36   DEM   41
SD 37   DEM   3
SD 38   DEM/IND   2
SD 39   REP   0
SD 40   REP   0
SD 41   DEM   2
SD 42   REP   2
SD 43   REP   1
SD 44   DEM   15
SD 45   REP   4
SD 46   DEM   2
SD 47   REP   -4
SD 48   REP   -1
SD 49   REP   -1
SD 50   REP   3
SD 51   REP   -1
SD 52   REP   -2
SD 53   DEM/IND   10
SD 54   REP   -2
SD 55   DEM   5
SD 56   REP   8
SD 57   REP   -8
SD 58   REP   -1
SD 59   REP   -6
SD 60   REP   4
SD 61   REP   -1
SD 62   REP   -4
SD 63   DEM   22


SD   INC   PVI   
SD 25   DEM   45   
SD 30   DEM   43   
SD 32   DEM   43   
SD 20   DEM   42   
SD 21   DEM   42   
SD 33   DEM   42   
SD 18   DEM   41   
SD 36   DEM   41   
SD 10   DEM   40   
SD 14   DEM   39   
SD 29   DEM   39   
SD 31   DEM   38   
SD 19   DEM   35   
SD 13   DEM   32   
SD 27   DEM   32   
SD 26   DEM   30   
SD 12   DEM   29   
SD 63   DEM   22   
SD 28   DEM   21   
SD 34   DEM/IND   21   
SD 35   DEM   20   
SD 16   DEM   19   
SD 44   DEM   15   
SD 23   DEM/IND   14   
SD 11   DEM/IND   11   
SD 53   DEM/IND   10   
SD 56   REP   8   
SD 15   DEM   5   
SD 55   DEM   5   
SD 45   REP   4   
SD 60   REP   4   
SD 3    REP   3   *
SD 8    REP   3   
SD 37   DEM   3   
SD 50   REP   3   
SD 6    REP   2   
SD 7    REP   2   
SD 38   DEM/IND   2   
SD 41   DEM   2   
SD 42   REP   2   
SD 46   DEM   2   
SD 9    REP   1   
SD 43   REP   1   
SD 1    REP   0   
SD 4    REP   0   
SD 39   REP   0   
SD 40   REP   0   
SD 48   REP   -1   
SD 49   REP   -1   
SD 51   REP   -1   
SD 58   REP   -1   
SD 61   REP   -1   
SD 5    REP   -2   
SD 52   REP   -2   
SD 54   REP   -2   
SD 22   REP   -3   
SD 47   REP   -4   
SD 62   REP   -4   
SD 2    REP   -5   
SD 59   REP   -6   
SD 57   REP   -8   
SD 17   DEM/REP   -12   
SD 24   REP   -13   

Well,
=) This gerrymander is probably one of the worst gerrymander I have ever seen. NY is a D+11 state, and the decisive senate district is only D+3.
=) Some DEM senators like being moderate heroes, by caucusing with the NY republican senate caucus.
Why has NY this gerrymander? One word: CUOMO. This man is definitely not a democrat and every democrat who supports him should switch party or become independent. He governs NY as a RINO, who supports tax cut for the wealthy. He has signed this f****** gerrymander and I hope he will lose. It will probably the only race where I will back the Green Party alternative.

[windjammer]

North Carolina



SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -10
2   REP   -16
3   DEM   -12
4   DEM   16
5   DEM   12
6   REP   -16
7   REP   -16
8   REP   -10
9   REP   -6
10   REP   -14
11   REP   -14
12   REP   -12
13   DEM   2
14   DEM   26
15   REP   -6
16   DEM   12
17   REP   -6
18   REP   -6
19   REP   -4
20   DEM   24
21   DEM   18
22   DEM   12
23   DEM   14
24   REP   -12
25   DEM   -12
26   REP   -12
27   REP   -8
28   DEM   30
29   REP   -22
30   REP   -22
31   REP   -16
32   DEM   18
33   REP   -20
34   REP   -18
35   REP   -18
36   REP   -14
37   DEM   14
38   DEM   28
39   REP   -10
40   DEM   30
41   REP   -8
42   REP   -18
43   REP   -16
44   REP   -18
45   REP   -16
46   REP   -14
47   REP   -16
48   REP   -12
49   DEM   8
50   REP   -14


SD    INC   PVI
28   DEM   30   
40   DEM   30   
38   DEM   28   
14   DEM   26   
20   DEM   24   
21   DEM   18   
32   DEM   18   
4   DEM   16   
23   DEM   14   
37   DEM   14   
5   DEM   12   
16   DEM   12   
22   DEM   12   
49   DEM   8   
13   DEM   2   
19   REP   -4   
9   REP   -6   
15   REP   -6   
17   REP   -6   
18   REP   -6   
27   REP   -8   **
41   REP   -8   
1   REP   -10   
8   REP   -10   
39   REP   -10   
3   DEM   -12   *
12   REP   -12   
24   REP   -12   
25   DEM   -12   
26   REP   -12   
48   REP   -12   
10   REP   -14   
11   REP   -14   
36   REP   -14   
46   REP   -14   
50   REP   -14   
2   REP   -16   
6   REP   -16   
7   REP   -16   
31   REP   -16   
43   REP   -16   
45   REP   -16   
47   REP   -16   
34   REP   -18   
35   REP   -18   
42   REP   -18   
44   REP   -18   
33   REP   -20   
29   REP   -22   
30   REP   -22   

**: The NC Republican Party loses its supermajority
*: The NC republican Party loses its majority
Big thank to Miles who has made the PVI!
Miles' comment about North Carolina:

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[windjammer]

North Dakota



SD   INC   PVI
1   R   -23
2   R   -24
3   R   -16
4   D   -5
5   R   -13
6   D   -15
7   R   -22
8   R   -12
9   D   23
10   R   -8
11   D   5
12   D   -10
13   R   -4
14   R   -17
15   R   -5
16   D   0
17   R   -4
18   D   3
19   R   -10
20   D   -7
21   D   10
22   R   -7
23   D   1
24   D   -4
25   R   -8
26   D   -2
27   R   -5
28   R   -22
29   R   -15
30   R   -16
31   R   -10
32   R   -12
33   R   -21
34   R   -12
35   R   -15
36   R   -27
37   R   -20
38   R   -19
39   R   -26
40   R   -14
41   R   -6
42   D   1
43   R   -1
44   R   2
45   R   -5
46   D   -4
47   R   -22
 

SD   INC   PVI
9   D   23
21   D   10
11   D   5
18   D   3
44   R   2
23   D   1
42   D   1
16   D   0
43   R   -1
26   D   -2
13   R   -4
17   R   -4
24   D   -4
46   D   -4
4   D   -5
15   R   -5
27   R   -5
45   R   -5
41   R   -6
20   D   -7
22   R   -7
10   R   -8
25   R   -8
12   D   -10
19   R   -10
31   R   -10
8   R   -12
32   R   -12
34   R   -12
5   R   -13
40   R   -14
6   D   -15
29   R   -15
35   R   -15
3   R   -16
30   R   -16
14   R   -17
38   R   -19
37   R   -20
33   R   -21
7   R   -22
28   R   -22
47   R   -22
1   R   -23
2   R   -24
39   R   -26
36   R   -27

Well, the ND democratic party is relatively effective because they hold some conservative districts.

[windjammer]

Ohio


SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -15
2   REP   -1
3   REP   2
4   REP   -15
5   REP   2
6   REP   -11
7   REP   -18
8   REP   -14
9   DEM   22
10   REP   -9
11   DEM   19
12   REP   -20
13   REP   4
14   REP   -16
15   DEM   27
16   REP   -4
17   REP   -12
18   REP   -5
19   REP   -5
20   REP   -8
21   DEM   35
22   REP   -11
23   DEM   13
24   REP   -3
25   DEM   22
26   RPE   -9
27   REP   -6
28   DEM   12
29   REP   -1
30   DEM   -3
31   REP   -9
32   DEM   6
33   DEM   6


SD   INC   PVI   
1   DEM   35   
2   DEM   27   
3   DEM   22   
4   DEM   22   
5   DEM   19   
6   DEM   13   
7   DEM   12   
8   DEM   6   
9   DEM   6   
10   REP   4   
11   REP   2   
12   REP   2   
13   REP   -1   
14   REP   -1   
15   REP   -3   
16   DEM   -3   
17   REP   -4   *
18   REP   -5   
19   REP   -5   
20   REP   -6   
21   REP   -8   
22   REP   -9   
23   REP   -9   
24   REP   -9   
25   REP   -11   
26   REP   -11   
27   REP   -12   
28   REP   -14   
29   REP   -15   
30   REP   -15   
31   REP   -16   
32   REP   -18   
33   REP   -20   

Well, a republican gerrymander obviously. But once again, the problems for democrats is that their electoral is too concentrated.
And seriously, the OH democratic party sucks… They can’t hold toss up/lean D districts. (I don't know why, but I'm sure someone will write a long messager in order to respond to this )

[windjammer]

Oklahoma



SD           INC        PVI
1   DEM   -17
2   DEM   -26
3   REP   -21
4   REP   -22
5   DEM   -25
6   REP   -23
7   REP   -22
8   DEM   -13
9   DEM   -8
10   REP   -23
11   DEM   25
12   REP   -24
13   DEM   -22
14   REP   -23
15   REP   -15
16   DEM   -2
17   REP   -23
18   REP   -21
19   REP   -29
20   REP   -25
21   REP   -16
22   REP   -27
23   REP   -27
24   REP   -24
25   REP   -26
26   DEM   -27
27   REP   -37
28   REP   -24
29   REP   -24
30   REP   -14
31   REP   -17
32   DEM   -11
33   REP   -23
34   REP   -20
35   REP   -11
36   REP   -19
37   REP   -20
38   REP   -26
39   REP   -14
40   REP   -9
41   REP   -24
42   REP   -12
43   REP   -29
44   REP   -15
45   REP   -22
46   DEM   3
47   REP   -19
48   DEM   24


SD   INC   PVI
11   DEM   25
48   DEM   24
46   DEM   3
16   DEM   -2
9   DEM   -8
40   REP   -9
32   DEM   -11
35   REP   -11
42   REP   -12
8   DEM   -13
30   REP   -14
39   REP   -14
15   REP   -15
44   REP   -15
21   REP   -16
1   DEM   -17
31   REP   -17
36   REP   -19
47   REP   -19
34   REP   -20
37   REP   -20
3   REP   -21
18   REP   -21
4   REP   -22
7   REP   -22
13   DEM   -22
45   REP   -22
6   REP   -23
10   REP   -23
14   REP   -23
17   REP   -23
33   REP   -23
12   REP   -24
24   REP   -24
28   REP   -24
29   REP   -24
41   REP   -24
5   DEM   -25
20   REP   -25
2   DEM   -26
25   REP   -26
38   REP   -26
22   REP   -27
23   REP   -27
26   DEM   -27
19   REP   -29
43   REP   -29
27   REP   -37

OK democrats are still alive. And don’t be surprised, most of the blue dog districts are from the former Dan Boren’s  district. Eastern Oklahoma seems to stay blue dogish locally.

[windjammer]

Oregon



SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -14
2   REP   -15
3   DEM   3
4   DEM   6
5   DEM   2
6   DEM   6
7   DEM   11
8   REP   7
9   REP   -14
10   REP   -3
11   DEM   6
12   REP   -5
13   REP   -4
14   DEM   11
15   REP   6
16   DEM   2
17   DEM   15
18   DEM   21
19   DEM   9
20   REP   -3
21   DEM   31
22   DEM   38
23   DEM   30
24   DEM   13
25   DEM   5
26   REP   2
27   REP   -3
28   REP   -21
29   REP   -17
30   REP   -16


SD   INC   PVI   
22   DEM   38   
21   DEM   31   
23   DEM   30   
18   DEM   21   
17   DEM   15   
24   DEM   13   
7   DEM   11   
14   DEM   11   
19   DEM   9   
8   REP   7   
4   DEM   6   
6   DEM   6   
11   DEM   6   
15   REP   6   
25   DEM   5   *
3   DEM   3   
5   DEM   2   
16   DEM   2   
26   REP   2   
10   REP   -3   
20   REP   -3   
27   REP   -3   
13   REP   -4   
12   REP   -5   
1   REP   -14   
9   REP   -14   
2   REP   -15   
30   REP   -16   
29   REP   -17   
28   REP   -21   

Well, Oregon seems to more republican locally. Seriously, I expect the Oregon to become a swing state in the future. But that’s my opinion.
Well, Monica Wehby shouldn’t be underestimated. While she probably won’t win, she can probably lose by a decent margin and start a political career in Oregon. But she needs to win the primaries. And seriously, the OR democratic party seems to be effective too. That’s not the GA republican party.

[windjammer]

Pennsylvania



SD   INC   PVI
1   DEM   26
2   DEM   23
3   DEM   42
4   DEM   33
5   DEM   8
6   REP   2
7   DEM   18
8   DEM   37
9   REP   5
10   REP   -1
11   DEM   4
12   REP   -1
13   REP   -5
14   DEM   2
15   DEM   -2
16   REP   3
17   DEM   7
18   DEM   6
19   DEM   2
20   REP   -8
21   REP   -16
22   DEM   11
23   REP   -15
24   REP   -2
25   REP   -15
26   REP   2
27   REP   -12
28   REP   -10
29   REP   -9
30   REP   -20
31   REP   -13
32   DEM   -10
33   REP   -16
34   REP   -5
35   DEM   -10
36   REP   -16
37   DEM   -8
38   DEM   -5
39   REP   -14
40   REP   -1
41   REP   -16
42   DEM   13
43   DEM   20
44   REP   1
45   DEM   1
46   DEM   -4
47   REP   -7
48   REP   -11
49   DEM   7
50   REP   -6


SD   INC   PVI
3   DEM   42
8   DEM   37
4   DEM   33
1   DEM   26
2   DEM   23
43   DEM   20
7   DEM   18
42   DEM   13
22   DEM   11
5   DEM   8
17   DEM   7
49   DEM   7
18   DEM   6
9   REP   5
11   DEM   4
16   REP   3
6   REP   2
14   DEM   2
19   DEM   2
26   REP   2
44   REP   1
45   DEM   1
10   REP   -1
12   REP   -1
40   REP   -1
15   DEM   -2
24   REP   -2
46   DEM   -4
13   REP   -5
34   REP   -5
38   DEM   -5
50   REP   -6
47   REP   -7
20   REP   -8
37   DEM   -8
29   REP   -9
28   REP   -10
32   DEM   -10
35   DEM   -10
48   REP   -11
27   REP   -12
31   REP   -13
39   REP   -14
23   REP   -15
25   REP   -15
21   REP   -16
33   REP   -16
36   REP   -16
41   REP   -16
30   REP   -20
With this PVI, we understand how PA has been the only state to have a pro-choice republican and a pro life democrat. PA Republicans try to be competitive in the suburbs from Philadelphia. While PA democrats try to overperform West Pennsylvania.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election,_1986
This gubernational election just shows the contrast perfectly!
Only half of the seats are up for reelection in 2014 (2,4,6,….50)
32 and 38, two conservative seats hold by the democrats, will be open seats in 2014. The 38th seat will be probably a rep pick up. The 32th seat, hmmm, PA democrats are lining a good recruit, a state representative from a district with the same PVI than the 32th seat. It will be highly contested.
26, the incumbent republican is retiring. A D+2 district, so I guess PA democrats should be favored to pick up this seat.
The 50th district, a R+6 district and the republican is retiring. Republicans are favored to hold this seat, but I believe this “might” be a dem opportunity. This district is from West Pennsylvania and West Pennsylvania is historically dem I guess? So,… But seriously, the democrat would start as an underdog.
The 40th district: an open seat, a swingy district. This will be competitive.Scavello, the rep candidate, is from a swingy house seat and is definitely the favorite. But I guess democrats can pick up this seat, but it will need a dem wave.
SD6-SD12-SD16: And some rep  incumbents running for reelection in a toss up/lean D district, personally I think they will be reelected.
So, I guess Republicans are favored to keep the PA senate.  (I wouldn't say the same thing for the Governorship haha).

[windjammer]

Rhode Island

http://www.elections.state.ri.us/publications/Election_Publications/Voter_Info/2012_RI_Senate_Districts.pdf

SD   INC   PVI
1   D   30
2   D   40
3   D   28
4   D   14
5   D   32
6   D   41
7   D   24
8   D   20
9   D   10
10   D   11,5
11   R   5,5
12   D   8,5
13   D   14,5
14   D   22
15   D   28
16   D   35
17   I   1
18   D   15
19   D   5
20   D   7
21   R   -2
22   D   3
23   D   0
24   D   11
25   D   5
26   D   3
27   D   5
28   D   20
29   D   10
30   D   8
31   D   7
32   R   8
33   D   3
34   D   4
35   R   -1
36   D   5
37   D   13
38   R   6


SD   INC   PVI
6   D   41
2   D   40
16   D   35
5   D   32
1   D   30
3   D   28
15   D   28
7   D   24
14   D   22
8   D   20
28   D   20
18   D   15
13   D   14,5
4   D   14
37   D   13
10   D   11,5
24   D   11
9   D   10
29   D   10
12   D   8,5
30   D   8
32   R   8
20   D   7
31   D   7
38   R   6
11   R   5,5
19   D   5
25   D   5
27   D   5
36   D   5
34   D   4
22   D   3
26   D   3
33   D   3
17   I   1
23   D   0
35   R   -1
21   R   -2

I have nothing to say. Except that this is a bit a RINO vs DINO match up. For instance all state republicans voted for the SSM marriage bill, whereas state democrats were divided. I know that Rhode Island is only rated B+ by NARAL, the pro choice lobby, so RI democrats are definitely moderate socially. We can see that unfortunately for the RI GOP party, even if the two parties aren’t extremely different, RI is polarized (except 1 or 2 SD districts).

[windjammer]

South Carolina

http://ors.sc.gov/digital/2010GISData/S815_statewide.pdf

SD   INC   PVI
1   REP   -20
2   REP   -30
3   REP   -24
4   REP   -17
5   REP   -27
6   REP   -20
7   DEM   5
8   REP   -19
9   REP   -14
10   DEM   -9
11   DEM   -5
12   REP   -17
13   REP   -15
14   REP   -20
15   REP   -13
16   REP   -13
17   DEM   5
18   REP   -21
19   DEM   28
20   REP   -6
21   DEM   26
22   DEM   3
23   REP   -25
24   REP   -18
25   REP   -15
26   DEM   -14
27   DEM   -8
28   REP   -15
29   DEM   5
30   DEM   11
31   REP   -15
32   DEM   11
33   REP   -16
34   REP   -15
35   DEM   -4
36   DEM   7
37   REP   -8
38   REP   -12
39   DEM   9
40   DEM   6
41   REP   -6
42   DEM   9
43   REP   -6
44   REP   -12
45   DEM   10
46   REP   -12


SD   INC   PVI   
19   DEM   28   
21   DEM   26   
30   DEM   11   
32   DEM   11   
45   DEM   10   
39   DEM   9   
42   DEM   9   
36   DEM   7   
40   DEM   6   
7   DEM   5   
17   DEM   5   
29   DEM   5   
22   DEM   3   
35   DEM   -4   
11   DEM   -5   
20   REP   -6   
41   REP   -6   
43   REP   -6   
27   DEM   -8   
37   REP   -8   
10   DEM   -9   
38   REP   -12   
44   REP   -12   *
46   REP   -12   
15   REP   -13   
16   REP   -13   
9   REP   -14   
26   DEM   -14   
13   REP   -15   
25   REP   -15   
28   REP   -15   
31   REP   -15   
34   REP   -15   
33   REP   -16   
4   REP   -17   
12   REP   -17   
24   REP   -18   
8   REP   -19   
1   REP   -20   
6   REP   -20   
14   REP   -20   
18   REP   -21   
3   REP   -24   
23   REP   -25   
5   REP   -27   
2   REP   -30   

We can see the SC democratic is extremely competitive by electing people in such conservative districts. I can see 2 reasons:
-the SC democratic party always runs good recruits and SC was extremely democrat before (see the 1932,1936 election ). Vincent Sheheen is definitely a strong recruit.
-EDIT: (thanks True Federalist): some longtime Blue Dogs have not retired yet.
-The SC republican party is definitely a MESS (Tim Scott and Lindsey Graham are two exceptions though): Nikki  Haley, Mark Sanford, the tea party has an important influence in the SC GOP.

[windjammer]

South Dakota



SD   INC   PVI
1   D   2
2   D   -7
3   R   -4
4   R   -8
5   R   -9
6   R   -11
7   R   1
8   R   -5
9   R   -5
10   R   -7
11   R   -7
12   R   -6
13   R   -7
14   R   -5
15   D   10
16   R   -12
17   D   -3
18   R   -6
19   R   -18
20   R   -11
21   D   -16
22   R   -9
23   R   -20
24   R   -19
25   R   -10
26   D   1
27   D   9
28   R   -11
29   R   -22
30   R   -21
31   R   -13
32   R   -12
33   R   -17
34   R   -15
35   R   -13



SD   INC   PVI
15   D   10
27   D   9
1   D   2
7   R   1
26   D   1
17   D   -3
3   R   -4
8   R   -5
9   R   -5
14   R   -5
12   R   -6
18   R   -6
2   D   -7
10   R   -7
11   R   -7
13   R   -7
4   R   -8
5   R   -9
22   R   -9
25   R   -10
6   R   -11
20   R   -11
28   R   -11
16   R   -12
32   R   -12
31   R   -13
35   R   -13
34   R   -15
21   D   -16
33   R   -17
19   R   -18
24   R   -19
23   R   -20
30   R   -21
29   R   -22

Both parties are decent. The SD democratic party can win in such conservative districts while the SD  republican party can win in some tiltD/swingy district too.

[windjammer]

Tennessee


SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    REP   -25
SD 2    REP   -26
SD 3    REP   -23
SD 4    REP   -26
SD 5    REP   -21
SD 6    REP   -15
SD 7         REP   -15
SD 8    REP   -26
SD 9    REP   -25
SD 10   REP   -5
SD 11   REP   -17
SD 12   REP   -25
SD 13   REP   -13
SD 14   REP   -19
SD 15   DEM   -20
SD 16   REP   -16
SD 17   REP   -21
SD 18   REP   -20
SD 19   DEM   30
SD 20   REP   -8
SD 21   DEM   10
SD 22   REP   -7
SD 23   REP   -24
SD 24   REP   -19
SD 25   REP   -17
SD 26   REP   -17
SD 27   DEM   -11
SD 28   REP   -18
SD 29   DEM   34
SD 30   DEM   28
SD 31   REP   -15
SD 32   REP   -24
SD 33   DEM   31



SD   INC   PVI
SD 29   DEM   34
SD 33   DEM   31
SD 19   DEM   30
SD 30   DEM   28
SD 21   DEM   10
SD 10   REP   -5
SD 22   REP   -7
SD 20   REP   -8
SD 27   DEM   -11
SD 13   REP   -13
SD 6    REP   -15
SD 7    REP   -15
SD 31   REP   -15
SD 16   REP   -16
SD 11   REP   -17
SD 25   REP   -17
SD 26   REP   -17
SD 28   REP   -18
SD 14   REP   -19
SD 24   REP   -19
SD 15   DEM   -20
SD 18   REP   -20
SD 5    REP   -21
SD 17   REP   -21
SD 3    REP   -23
SD 23   REP   -24
SD 32   REP   -24
SD 1    REP   -25
SD 9    REP   -25
SD 12   REP   -25
SD 2    REP   -26
SD 4    REP   -26
SD 8    REP   -26

The two biggest problems for TN democrats:
-   Their electoral is too concentrated (Memphis, Nashville,…)
-   TN republicans are decent: Corker, Haslam, Alexander,… They’re not particularly conservative, compared with the other republicans.
TN senate elections are up every four year, and the next elections are scheduled in 2014. The last two blue dog districts: SD-15 and SD-27 will be retiring (and I don’t think this has something to do with redistricting). The blue dog incumbent in  SD-15 is definitely what we can a specimen: she’s definitely a DINO on abortion,… BUT SHE’S ANTI GUN!!! Indeed, her husband, who was the dem senator from her current district,  was killed by his opponent 12 years ago. So she was elected by a write in campaign. So yes, that’s why she’s anti gun, she will be missed!

[free my dawg]

New Hampshire



SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    DEM   5
SD 2    REP   2
SD 3    REP   -1
SD 4    DEM   8
SD 5    DEM   16
SD 6    REP   -2
SD 7    DEM   0
SD 8    REP   0
SD 9    REP   -3
SD 10   DEM   14
SD 11   REP   -3
SD 12   DEM   -4
SD 13   DEM   7
SD 14   REP   -8
SD 15   DEM   12
SD 16   REP   -2
SD 17   REP   -3
SD 18   DEM   -1
SD 19   REP   -9
SD 20   DEM   2
SD 21   DEM   15
SD 22   REP   -10
SD 23   REP   -3
SD 24   REP   -2



SD   INC   PVI
SD 5           DEM   16
SD 21   DEM   15
SD 10   DEM   14
SD 15   DEM   12
SD 4    DEM   8
SD 13   DEM   7
SD 1    DEM   5
SD 2    REP   2
SD 20   DEM   2
SD 7    DEM   0
SD 8    REP   0
SD 3    REP   -1    *
SD 18   DEM   -1
SD 6    REP   -2
SD 16   REP   -2
SD 24   REP   -2
SD 9    REP   -3
SD 11   REP   -3
SD 17   REP   -3
SD 23   REP   -3
SD 12   DEM   -4
SD 14   REP   -8
SD 19   REP   -9
SD 22   REP   -10

I will just quote Sawx:

Updated Senate rankings:

• SD1: Safe D (D+4). A classic Democratic North Country district. Jeff Woodburn fits this place like a glove.
• SD2: Likely R (R+1). Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her 53% Obama seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. Easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has.
• SD3: Safe R (R+2). Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is. Name recognition alone will propel him to victory.
• SD4: Safe D (D+6). Ever since redistricting put Dover in here it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. Watters is a weak candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height and there's a moderate (read: not Woody), but overall, he should be safe.
• SD5: Safe D (D+15). It's based in Hanover and Claremont. Pierce is as safe as can be.
• SD6: Likely R (RW) (R+2). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. I like his chances if Cataldo retires (he's be 77), but he just got elected, so he's probably sticking around. Cataldo did around the same as Romney did, but he's very economically conservative.
• SD7: Lean D. (R+1) Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef was a horrible candidate. He got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments throughout his life. However, Youssef has decided to run again in 2014, and of course, if he wins, it's safe Democratic, but I'm not betting they'll be this lucky again. It's a toss-up if someone else gets the nominee - anyone is better than Youssef.
• SD8:(RW) (PW) (R+1). Odell is probably the most moderate of the Republicans here, and also has been floated for higher office. He's very prominent in the party, chairs the powerful Ways and Means Committee, and he greatly overperformed Romney in Romney. However, he will be 71, and a top candidate in JP Marzullo is running against him, so Odell may call it quits. It's Safe R with Odell, and a toss-up with Marzullo. Odell is retiring. This will be competitive
• SD9: Toss-Up. (R+3) Andy Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing in leadership, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Over the past year, he was caught calling governor Maggie Hassan a hag, compared Obamacare to a plane crash, and threatening to revoke a constituent's scholarship over him supporting marijuana legalization. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time and he has a good chance of losing.
• SD-10: Safe D. It's Keene. Who's going to run here, DW Perry?
• SD-11: Likely R (RW) (R+3). After the scandal at the LGC.
• SD-12: Toss-up/Tilt R (RW) (R+4). Peggy Gilmour only won by 1000 votes in this Republican-leaning district. She's also getting up there in age, and if she retires or Republicans recruit someone good, they have a much better chance at winning. After all, this is a 51.9% Romney district.
• SD-13: Likely D: (D+4) Lambert's win was a fluke, but a moderate could win this ancestrally Democratic district.
• SD-14: Safe R: Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got 40%. Write this place off.
• SD-15: Safe D: (D+10) The safest seat in the Union. Sylvia Larsen has been here since 1994, and this seat is reliably safe. She regularly comes close to 70% each time she runs.
• SD-16: Leans R (R+2). David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news is that a libertarian received 950 votes. The bad news is that Patrick Arnold, the Democratic nominee for Manchester mayor who was 940 votes away from beating Ted Gatsas in an off-off year, is considering a run in this district. With a stronger libertarian candidate or a candidate like Arnold, Boutin may very well fall.
• SD-17: Safe R. (R+3) Reagan is fairly moderate, and his district tilts Republican too. I think he's got this.
• SD-18: Toss-Up/Tilts D. (R+2) Donna Soucy won by much more than expected here. No real idea about Gail Barry, but Arthur Beaudry's an independent in every sense of the word. Should probably say a lot about her strength.
• SD-19: Safe R. (R+9) Rausch, even in a swing district, would be fine.
• SD-20: Safe D (RW). (D+1)  Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
• SD-21: Safe D. (D+14) Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 4 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
• SD-22: Safe R. (R+11) Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
• SD-23: Safe R. (R+4) Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside.
• SD-24: Leans R. (R+3) Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, a conservative who will sometimes beat Democrats, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark when SD-21 only leaned Democratic, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. This district is going to be a rough hit. She is pro-gay marriage. Once again, the right candidate can win here, Chris Muns has raised quite a bit of money for a State Senate campaign, and Democrats have lots of room to hit her, but it will be an uphill battle.

Gun to my head, I say Sanborn and Gilmour fall and both parties break even. For Democrats to take the Senate, they must hold all of their seats, obviously. The path to taking the Senate, however, must go through Andy Sanborn's seat. His last two controversies were overblown, but bullying a constituent into silence will not stand well. Then, they will have to win one of SD-2, SD-8 (which is possible thanks to a top-tier primary threat), SD-16, and SD-24. Preferably more would do for an insurance.

Strangely, we don't have the same PVI.

Yeah, I was using MiscellanyBlue's data.

[windjammer]

Texas

 


SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    REP   -24
SD 2    REP   -16
SD 3    REP   -27
SD 4    REP   -22
SD 5    REP   -15
SD 6    DEM   13
SD 7    REP   -20
SD 8    REP   -14
SD 9    REP   -12
SD 10   DEM   -6
SD 11   REP   -17
SD 12   REP   -18
SD 13   DEM   31
SD 14   DEM   11
SD 15   DEM   7
SD 16   REP   -9
SD 17   REP   -12
SD 18   REP   -19
SD 19   DEM   3
SD 20   DEM   4
SD 21   DEM   6
SD 22   REP   -20
SD 23   DEM   28
SD 24   REP   -22
SD 25   REP   -17
SD 26   DEM   9
SD 27   DEM   15
SD 28   REP   -26
SD 29   DEM   13
SD 30   REP   -27
SD 31   REP   -32


SD   INC   PVI
SD 13   DEM   31
SD 23   DEM   28
SD 27   DEM   15
SD 6    DEM   13
SD 29   DEM   13
SD 14   DEM   11
SD 26   DEM   9
SD 15   DEM   7
SD 21   DEM   6
SD 20   DEM   4
SD 19   DEM   3
SD 10   DEM   -6
SD 16   REP   -9
SD 9    REP   -12
SD 17   REP   -12
SD 8    REP   -14
SD 5    REP   -15
SD 2    REP   -16
SD 11   REP   -17
SD 25   REP   -17
SD 12   REP   -18
SD 18   REP   -19
SD 7    REP   -20
SD 22   REP   -20
SD 4    REP   -22
SD 24   REP   -22
SD 1    REP   -24
SD 28   REP   -26
SD 3    REP   -27
SD 30   REP   -27
SD 31   REP   -32

Wendy Davis’ district is the only “competitive” district in Kansas. Republicans try to draw a map much less favorable to her, but Davis successfully used a part of the  Voting Rights Act to keep her district competitive. And this part of the Voting Rights Act has been struck down by the Supreme Court.
According a Keystone Phil’s friend from Texas, Davis has always had bad and flawed opponents. That’s why I believe that this time, now an open seat, TX republicans should pick up her district.

[windjammer]

Utah

http://le.utah.gov/GIS/findDistrict.jsp

PVI only based on the 2008 results for obvious reasons.

SD   INC   PVI
SD  1   DEM   2
SD  2   DEM   20
SD  3   DEM   9
SD  4   DEM   3
SD  5   DEM   -3
SD  6   REP   -11
SD  7   REP   -33
SD  8   REP   -2
SD  9   REP   -11
SD 10   REP   -22
SD 11   REP   -24
SD 12   REP   -10
SD 13   REP   -35
SD 14   REP   -38
SD 15   REP   -33
SD 16   REP   -31
SD 17   REP   -33
SD 18   REP   -16
SD 19   REP   -15
SD 20   REP   -24
SD 21   REP   -27
SD 22   REP   -27
SD 23   REP   -20
SD 24   REP   -34
SD 25   REP   -26
SD 26   REP   -19
SD 27   REP   -19
SD 28   REP   -32
SD 29   REP   -31

SD   INC   PVI
SD 2    DEM   20
SD 3    DEM   9
SD 4    DEM   3
SD 1    DEM   2
SD 8    REP   -2
SD 5    DEM   -3
SD 12   REP   -10
SD 6    REP   -11
SD 9    REP   -11
SD 19   REP   -15
SD 18   REP   -16
SD 26   REP   -19
SD 27   REP   -19
SD 23   REP   -20
SD 10   REP   -22
SD 11   REP   -24
SD 20   REP   -24
SD 25   REP   -26
SD 21   REP   -27
SD 22   REP   -27
SD 16   REP   -31
SD 29   REP   -31
SD 28   REP   -32
SD 7    REP   -33
SD 15   REP   -33
SD 17   REP   -33
SD 24   REP   -34
SD 13   REP   -35
SD 14   REP   -38

Well, Utah Democrats seem to have resisted very well to the Mitt Romney’s candidacy: they kept Matheson’s district, they kept Salt Lake City and they held some SD districts that Romney probably carried.

[windjammer]

Vermont



ADD   2D   18
BEN   2D   14
CAL   1D1R   9
CHI   2P3D1R   20
E-0   2D   10
FRA   1R1D   9
GI   1D   12
LAM   1R   19
ORA   1D   15
RUT   1D2R   9
WAS   1P1D1R   18
WDM   2D   22
WSR   3D   17

WDM   2D   22
CHI   2P3D1R   20
LAM   1R   19
ADD   2D   18
WAS   1P1D1R   18
WSR   3D   17
ORA   1D   15
BEN   2D   14
GI   1D   12
E-0   2D   10
CAL   1D1R   9
FRA   1R1D   9
RUT   1D2R   9

The Vermont Republican party seems to have resisted to the Matt from Vermont’s departure, they’re still alive, but they’re dying.

[windjammer]

Virginia



SD   INC   PVI
SD 1    DEM   6
SD 2    DEM   18
SD 3    REP   -16
SD 4    REP   -12
SD 5    DEM   22
SD 6    DEM   4
SD 7    REP   -3
SD 8    REP   -6
SD 9    DEM   20
SD 10   REP   -1
SD 11   REP   -10
SD 12   REP   -8
SD 13   REP   -4
SD 14   REP   -13
SD 15   REP   -12
SD 16   DEM   20
SD 17   REP   -2
SD 18   DEM   15
SD 19   REP   -17
SD 20   REP   -4
SD 21   DEM   3
SD 22   REP   -7
SD 23   REP   -21
SD 24   REP   -17
SD 25   DEM   4
SD 26   REP   -13
SD 27   REP   -12
SD 28   REP   -9
SD 29   DEM   10
SD 30   DEM   14
SD 31   DEM   9
SD 32   DEM   9
SD 33   DEM   7
SD 34   DEM   5
SD 35   DEM   15
SD 36   DEM   12
SD 37   DEM   5
SD 38   DEM   -16
SD 39   DEM   7
SD 40   REP   -22

SD   INC   PVI
SD 5    DEM   22
SD 9    DEM   20
SD 16   DEM   20
SD 2    DEM   18
SD 18   DEM   15
SD 35   DEM   15
SD 30   DEM   14
SD 36   DEM   12
SD 29   DEM   10
SD 31   DEM   9
SD 32   DEM   9
SD 33   DEM   7
SD 39   DEM   7
SD 1    DEM   6
SD 34   DEM   5
SD 37   DEM   5
SD 6    DEM   4
SD 25   DEM   4
SD 21   DEM   3
SD 10   REP   -1
SD 17   REP   -2
SD 7    REP   -3
SD 13   REP   -4
SD 20   REP   -4
SD 8    REP   -6
SD 22   REP   -7
SD 12   REP   -8
SD 28   REP   -9
SD 11   REP   -10
SD 4    REP   -12
SD 15   REP   -12
SD 27   REP   -12
SD 14   REP   -13
SD 26   REP   -13
SD 3    REP   -16
SD 38   DEM   -16
SD 19   REP   -17
SD 24   REP   -17
SD 23   REP   -21
SD 40   REP   -22

This is a slight democrat gerrymander. Democrats are assured to always hold 19 seats, but after that  holding the other seats is much more difficult. They hold an Appalachia district, and seriously, he will probably be elected. He’s the typical WV democrat, pro coal, pro life (he voted against ultra sound bill repeal for instance), but he sides with VA democrats on economic issues, he voted for the minimum wage increase,… And he survived in 2011 decently, which was a bad year for VA democrats. So, unless he retires, I would say that SD-38 is lean Dem at least.
VA democrats opportunities are in swing district/tilt rep/lean rep districts:
-SD 10: the incumbent hasn’t been reelected by a big margin considering how republican was 2011 in VA (only 12%). But the rep incumbent in strong on paper: pro choice, he’s supported by the republican main street partnership,… He will be tough to beat.
-SD 13: a lean Rep district. But Black, the incumbent, IS SO CRAZY. Extremely homophobic, seriously, compared with him,  Cuccinelli looks like a SSM supporter. And he has made some awful and D-I-S-G-U-S-T-I-N-G comments. But he’s old, maybe he will retire.
-SD7, SD17, SD 20: this could become playable, but Republicans will probably hold these districts.
ModerateVAVoter told me he believes the VA senate won’t change a lot (maybe 1 pick up for democrats or for republicans, but nothing more).

[windjammer]

Washington



SD   INC   PVI
LD 1    DEM   9
LD 2    REP   -4
LD 3    DEM   8
LD 4    REP   -10
LD 5    DEM   3
LD 6    REP   -4
LD 7    REP   -14
LD 8    REP   -16
LD 9    REP   -13
LD 10   REP   -1
LD 11   DEM   16
LD 12   REP   -10
LD 13   REP   -15
LD 14   REP   -8
LD 15   REP   -6
LD 16   REP   -13
LD 17   REP   -2
LD 18   REP   -6
LD 19   DEM   3
LD 20   REP   -9
LD 21   DEM   11
LD 22   DEM   13
LD 23   DEM   7
LD 24   DEM   4
LD 25   REP   0
LD 26   REP   -1
LD 27   DEM   16
LD 28   REP   3
LD 29   DEM   10
LD 30   DEM   7
LD 31   REP   -3
LD 32   DEM   19
LD 33   DEM   14
LD 34   DEM   26
LD 35   DEM/MAJ   1
LD 36   DEM   32
LD 37   DEM   35
LD 38   DEM   9
LD 39   REP   -1
LD 40   DEM   12
LD 41   REP   10
LD 42   REP   -1
LD 43   DEM   37
LD 44   DEM   3
LD 45   REP   8
LD 46   DEM   28
LD 47   REP   4
LD 48   DEM/MAJ   11
LD 49   DEM   7



SD   INC   PVI   
LD 43   DEM   37   
LD 37   DEM   35   
LD 36   DEM   32   
LD 46   DEM   28   
LD 34   DEM   26   
LD 32   DEM   19   
LD 11   DEM   16   
LD 27   DEM   16   
LD 33   DEM   14   
LD 22   DEM   13   
LD 40   DEM   12   
LD 21   DEM   11   
LD 48   DEM/MAJ   11   
LD 29   DEM   10   
LD 41   REP   10   
LD 1    DEM   9   
LD 38   DEM   9   
LD 3    DEM   8   
LD 45   REP   8   
LD 23   DEM   7   
LD 30   DEM   7   
LD 49   DEM   7   
LD 24   DEM   4   
LD 47   REP   4   
LD 5    DEM   3   *
LD 19   DEM   3   
LD 28   REP   3   
LD 44   DEM   3   
LD 35   DEM/MAJ   1   
LD 25   REP   0   
LD 10   REP   -1   
LD 26   REP   -1   
LD 39   REP   -1   
LD 42   REP   -1   
LD 17   REP   -2   
LD 31   REP   -3   
LD 2    REP   -4   
LD 6    REP   -4   
LD 15   REP   -6   
LD 18   REP   -6   
LD 14   REP   -8   
LD 20   REP   -9   
LD 4    REP   -10   
LD 12   REP   -10   
LD 9    REP   -13   
LD 16   REP   -13   
LD 7    REP   -14   
LD 13   REP   -15   
LD 8    REP   -16   

One of the two ing bastards democrat traitor is retiring. There is a decent chance that the WA democratic retakes the control of the WA senate

[windjammer]

West Virginia



SD   INC   PVI
1   2D   -10
2   2D   -15
3   2R   -17
4   2R   -16
5   1D1R   -10
6   2D   -18
7   2D   -13
8   1D1R   -6
9   2D   -21
10   2D   -12
11   2D   -16
12   2D   -13
13   2D    -4
14   1D1R   -18
15   1D1R   -19
16   2D   -4
17   2D   -7


SD   INC   PVI
13   2D   -4
16   2D   -4
8   1D1R   -6
17   2D   -7
1   2D   -10
5   1D1R   -10
10   2D   -12
7   2D   -13
12   2D   -13
2   2D   -15
4   2R   -16
11   2D   -16
3   2R   -17
6   2D   -18
14   1D1R   -18
15   1D1R   -19
9   2D   -21


The WV democratic is still extremely strong. I read an analysis made by a GOPer who predicted WV republicans would take the WV house but would only pick up one seat in the WV senate.
Obama failed to carry a senate district in 2012, and the WV democratic party currently has a massive lead in the WV senate: LOOOOOOOOL