Hickman Analytics (D) for Consumer Energy Alliance: 5 Senate polls

[Tender Branson]

Note: Consumer Energy Alliance is an organisation that favours building the Keystone XL pipeline.

...

Iowa:

43% Bruce Braley    
42% Mark Jacobs

44% Bruce Braley    
40% Joni Ernst

Kentucky:

46% Mitch McConnell    
45% Alison Lundergan Grimes

Michigan:

42% Gary Peters
37% Terri Lynn Land

Montana:

49% Steve Daines
37% John Walsh

New Hampshire:

49% Jeanne Shaheen
43% Scott Brown

...

Hickman Analytics conducted the four polls for Consumer Energy Alliance. In Iowa, 500 likely 2014 general election voters were surveyed via landline or cell phone between April 24th and 30th. In Michigan, 502 likely 2014 general election voters were surveyed via landline or cell phone between April 24th and 30th.  In Montana, 400 likely 2014 general election voters were surveyed via landline or cell phone between April 24th and 30th.  In New Hampshire, 400 likely 2014 general election voters were surveyed via landline or cell phone between April 24th and 30th.  Montana and New Hampshire polling carries a 4.9% margin of error.  Iowa and Michigan polling carries a 4.4% margin of error.

http://buildkxlnow.org/keystone-pipeline-poll-delays-hurt-senate-democrats

[Tender Branson]

They also screened for "definite voters", which make up some 80% of the 400-500 likely voters in each state:

Iowa:

44% Bruce Braley    
44% Mark Jacobs

46% Bruce Braley    
41% Joni Ernst

Kentucky:

46% Mitch McConnell    
46% Alison Lundergan Grimes

Michigan:

43% Gary Peters
38% Terri Lynn Land

Montana:

48% Steve Daines
40% John Walsh

New Hampshire:

48% Jeanne Shaheen
44% Scott Brown

[Tender Branson]

These numbers make some sense, I think.

IA is getting really close, especially if Jacobs wins the primary.

Jacobs is largely unknown, but those who know him rate him favorably (25-14).

[Tender Branson]

Other interesting stuff from the crosstabs:

* 1/3 KY voters have not heard of Alison L-G so far, only 2% have not heard about McConnell.

* In MT, 14% of Dems are undecided, while only 5% of Republicans are undecided. Daines is far ahead with Indies though.

[Tender Branson]

Obama's favorable ratings in each state:

IA: 47-49

KY: 39-56

MI: 47-47

MT: 38-57

NH: 45-53

[windjammer]

Yes, seriously, I think Hickman Analytics is globally accurate.

[pbrower2a]

Obama's favorable ratings in each state:

IA: 47-49

KY: 39-56

MI: 47-47

MT: 38-57

NH: 45-53

This makes sense, and it suggests a valid pollster.

[tmthforu94]

Interesting in Iowa - could be like Wisconsin in 2010. Not really on the radar at first, but the GOP manages to pull a strong candidate from obscurity and win the seat. I feel good about these numbers.

[SPC]

Interesting in Iowa - could be like Wisconsin in 2010. Not really on the radar at first, but the GOP manages to pull a strong candidate from obscurity and win the seat. I feel good about these numbers.

In other news, what happened to Michigan? What every Dem avatar here said would happen?

[badgate]

It's always comforting to know that the people participating in these polls who don't know someone, have heard of them by the end of the poll.

[free my dawg]

I highly doubt that Snyder would be leading Schauer by 11 but Land would be losing by 5

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

These polls were conducted for one of the Koch brothers groups.  Even if Hickman Analytics is normally a Democratic firm; I'd take these with a heavy grain of salt.