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Author Topic: NBC-Marist: Pryor up 11, KY tied, Perdue leads Nunn by 4 in GA  (Read 4971 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 12, 2014, 06:36:45 am »

http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/democrats-hold-strong-three-key-senate-races
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2014, 06:40:09 am »

Too bad that Ross is doing so badly in the Gov. Race, but good to see Pryor crushing that Cotton-kid.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #2 on: May 12, 2014, 06:50:39 am »

Kentucky and Georgia sound normal, but that Arkansas poll is weird. Pryor up 11, but Ross down 7? I'm not sure they're that far apart. That being said, Pryor's been moving ahead recently, so Cotton has some work to do.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: May 12, 2014, 06:57:31 am »

Also: Gov. Mike Beebe has a 79% approval rating in AR.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: May 12, 2014, 07:31:44 am »

It will be difficult for GOP to win Senate without ARK.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #5 on: May 12, 2014, 08:12:34 am »

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Pryor isn't up by 11.

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« Reply #6 on: May 12, 2014, 08:13:06 am »

I might be time to move this to Lean D.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #7 on: May 12, 2014, 08:14:31 am »

I might be time to move this to Lean D.
Gass, please wait! It's too early  to do that.
« Last Edit: May 12, 2014, 08:23:18 am by Midwest Governor windjammer »Logged

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« Reply #8 on: May 12, 2014, 08:14:53 am »

LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Pryor isn't up by 11.



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« Reply #9 on: May 12, 2014, 09:15:56 am »

This is at least the third poll to show Pryor up big, so it's hard to justify not calling this race Lean Democratic for right now. I do not think Pryor loses without a dramatic shift in climate. Honestly, Pryor is the far better candidate, the only thing making race competitive is partisanship.
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« Reply #10 on: May 12, 2014, 09:47:40 am »

I might be time to move this to Lean D.
Gass, please wait! It's too early  to do that.

Not really, this is like 5th poll in a row that has had him winning.

This is at least the third poll to show Pryor up big, so it's hard to justify not calling this race Lean Democratic for right now. I do not think Pryor loses without a dramatic shift in climate. Honestly, Pryor is the far better candidate, the only thing making race competitive is partisanship.

Exactly.
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« Reply #11 on: May 12, 2014, 10:02:35 am »

Hmm... so PPP and TB find similar crosstabs, yet both have MOE leads for Pryor and both candidates underwater. Someone's very wrong. I'll take the pollsters who have a solid reputation in Arkansas.
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« Reply #12 on: May 12, 2014, 10:44:58 am »

Rubbish.  There's no way Pryor is THAT far ahead, even if he is leading.  I suspect that regardless of the outcome, that one will be close.

I doubt the Georgia race is that close either, unless Broun, Gingrey, or another lousy Tea Partier wins the primary.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #13 on: May 12, 2014, 10:51:12 am »

Rubbish.  There's no way Pryor is THAT far ahead, even if he is leading.

I think he is, because Cotton is collapsing.

This bodes ill for Republicans in general, because the idea of the Republicans being so extreme hasn't sunken in yet elsewhere. When the GOP has to campaign on bad ideas, they'll lose support.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #14 on: May 12, 2014, 11:05:28 am »

I like our chances now. Tea party enthusiasm, not GOP, is clearly down with: Tillis winning in NC. They may need to duplicate the 2010 numbers to take another house of Congress, but I'll take these numbers.
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« Reply #15 on: May 12, 2014, 11:13:55 am »

These numbers are weird (in many ways) but Marist was very good in 2012.
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« Reply #16 on: May 12, 2014, 03:46:29 pm »

Hmm... so PPP and TB find similar crosstabs, yet both have MOE leads for Pryor and both candidates underwater. Someone's very wrong. I'll take the pollsters who have a solid reputation in Arkansas.
Me too.

PPP and TB are much more accurate.
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« Reply #17 on: May 12, 2014, 03:53:06 pm »

Ha, this is wrong.  I do not see a 18 point gap between Pryor and Ross.  I don't see something like this happening.  I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.
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« Reply #18 on: May 12, 2014, 03:58:59 pm »

I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.

You've been talking to a scientific sample of a broad cross-section of Arkansans?  I'm impressed!
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King Francis I
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« Reply #19 on: May 12, 2014, 03:59:52 pm »

Ha, this is wrong.  I do not see a 18 point gap between Pryor and Ross.  I don't see something like this happening.  I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.
Jerryarkansas,
I can tell you a lot of French people who thought that Sarkozy would have been reelected in 2012, even if he was definitely trailing Hollande. I can tell you the same thing for some other election, where some Royal supporters thought she would win in 2007,...

And yes, this poll is wrong but your arguments are wrong too.
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« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2014, 04:15:34 pm »

I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.

You've been talking to a scientific sample of a broad cross-section of Arkansans?  I'm impressed!

I have not, but, I have been talking to the olds for my state, the one's who will vote more, and they are pissed. 

Ha, this is wrong.  I do not see a 18 point gap between Pryor and Ross.  I don't see something like this happening.  I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.
Jerryarkansas,
I can tell you a lot of French people who thought that Sarkozy would have been reelected in 2012, even if he was definitely trailing Hollande. I can tell you the same thing for some other election, where some Royal supporters thought she would win in 2007,...

And yes, this poll is wrong but your arguments are wrong too.

I know my state.  If pryor wins, I will admit I was wrong, but until then, I hold he will lose
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« Reply #21 on: May 12, 2014, 05:56:56 pm »

Their GA-GOV poll showed Carter at 40; Nunn's at 41 here. Those numbers obviously track well with one another, but GA's inelasticity makes me call BS; no way Nunn's down by 4 against the strongest Republican while Carter's down by 10 - incumbency doesn't get you more than a point or two in GA, especially when we're dealing with two legacy candidates. Maybe a 3-point spread between the two if Carter sucks and Nunn does as expected.
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« Reply #22 on: May 12, 2014, 09:04:19 pm »

I've seen the internals, and there were 8% more Democrats in the Pryor poll. Clearly, it was skewed their way, but also saw him with more support from Independents. There is also the fact that they surveyed RVs, not LVs. LV polls, like Magellan, show a very different story
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« Reply #23 on: May 12, 2014, 09:17:27 pm »

I find it hard believe Pryor is ahead at all, let alone up eleven.

Best case he's tied... realistically, he's five to seven back.

Democrats should cut him lose, and try and prop up Larry Pressler in South Dakota.
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« Reply #24 on: May 12, 2014, 09:46:16 pm »

I've seen the internals, and there were 8% more Democrats in the Pryor poll. Clearly, it was skewed their way, but also saw him with more support from Independents. There is also the fact that they surveyed RVs, not LVs. LV polls, like Magellan, show a very different story

Are we really going to go through this BS again?!

AR has a D+10 registration advantage, they just don't vote for Democrats at the National level. Trust the data, not your gut.
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