NBC-Marist: Pryor up 11, KY tied, Perdue leads Nunn by 4 in GA (user search)
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  NBC-Marist: Pryor up 11, KY tied, Perdue leads Nunn by 4 in GA (search mode)
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Author Topic: NBC-Marist: Pryor up 11, KY tied, Perdue leads Nunn by 4 in GA  (Read 5887 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« on: May 12, 2014, 09:04:19 PM »

I've seen the internals, and there were 8% more Democrats in the Pryor poll. Clearly, it was skewed their way, but also saw him with more support from Independents. There is also the fact that they surveyed RVs, not LVs. LV polls, like Magellan, show a very different story
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #1 on: May 12, 2014, 10:44:40 PM »

I've seen the internals, and there were 8% more Democrats in the Pryor poll. Clearly, it was skewed their way, but also saw him with more support from Independents. There is also the fact that they surveyed RVs, not LVs. LV polls, like Magellan, show a very different story

Are we really going to go through this BS again?!

AR has a D+10 registration advantage, they just don't vote for Democrats at the National level. Trust the data, not your gut.
Just because there are more doesn't mean they are all going out to vote, particularly in a midterm. I don't trust RV polls. That's that.
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Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2014, 12:27:58 AM »

I've seen the internals, and there were 8% more Democrats in the Pryor poll. Clearly, it was skewed their way, but also saw him with more support from Independents. There is also the fact that they surveyed RVs, not LVs. LV polls, like Magellan, show a very different story

Are we really going to go through this BS again?!

AR has a D+10 registration advantage, they just don't vote for Democrats at the National level. Trust the data, not your gut.
Just because there are more doesn't mean they are all going out to vote, particularly in a midterm. I don't trust RV polls. That's that.

No it doesn't and that's my point. In states like AR, D+x registration doesn't reflect how a state is going to vote. Just saying the poll is rubbish because it has more Democrats reflects that the state has more Democrats.

It's way too early to trust likely voter polls anyway.
I wait till the August polls to start compiling my "official" predictions
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,918
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2014, 07:02:53 AM »

I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.

You've been talking to a scientific sample of a broad cross-section of Arkansans?  I'm impressed!

I have not, but, I have been talking to the olds for my state, the one's who will vote more, and they are pissed.  

Ha, this is wrong.  I do not see a 18 point gap between Pryor and Ross.  I don't see something like this happening.  I have been talking to  people over the past few years, and they are tired of Pryor, and they hold him with Obama.
Jerryarkansas,
I can tell you a lot of French people who thought that Sarkozy would have been reelected in 2012, even if he was definitely trailing Hollande. I can tell you the same thing for some other election, where some Royal supporters thought she would win in 2007,...

And yes, this poll is wrong but your arguments are wrong too.

I know my state.  If pryor wins, I will admit I was wrong, but until then, I hold he will lose
You have not only said said that Pryor will lose, you have said he'sgoing Blanche.
I'm saying this race will be extremely competitive, I don't rule out a Cotton win at all (that's clearly a possibility, 50/50 right now I guess).
But your analysis of this senate race has always been ultra party-line, and sorry, but skewed too.
Pryor isn't going Blanche.
Your analysis of this race is totally wrong if Cotton fails to destroy Pryor. And that's likely. He will never win by a bigger margin than 10.
But the mirror won't apply to Pryor like this crap is suggesting. This isn't even confirmation bias, this is logic. There is no way a race this close can suddenly become lopsided. I am not saying Pryor is Blanching (love how that is a verb now), but I AM saying that we shouldn't start tying it up either way.  If I had a confirmation bias, I would listen to Dick Morris.
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