Guys, this isn't over. Far from it. For one thing, there are a number of contributing factors to Kasich's 10 point rise since Quinnipiac's last poll. One is former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour headlined the ORP dinner recently and publicly endorsed Kasich with Senator Portman introducing him plus Kasich had his State of the State speech a few months back that reaffirms the "trust" Ohio has in him.
Those factors really don't affect the race. Who in Ohio is going to think "Hey, I'm gonna support Kasich" because Haley Barbour endorsed him?Well, it won't make the Tea Party hate him any less and Barbour certainly assisted in the Ohio Republicans further uniting behind Kasich and picking up a few undecideds. That dinner was the ORP's biggest fundraiser and as a reminder, this further helps in Kasich avoiding his old "Tea Party" label with Barbour as this pro-establishment RNC figure who touts how Kasich in DC balanced a budget, in OH balanced a budget, and all that stuff voters eat up with the "unity" of the state party, that "Ohio works" under Kasich and avoiding connection to the entangled, corrupt DC Republicans.
Bill Clinton won't help FitzGerald much, maybe some fundraising, but not enough to come close to Kasich's numbers.[/quote]Clinton's
a lot better than Barbour though. One is a former President, the other a former Governor. One is a failed Pres. candidate and the other has a wife who's loved by all political parties alike. He's going to raise FitzGerald a ton of money and maybe he can make a connection to Kasich's Presidential threat to Hillary by stating that a vote for FitzGerald is a vote for Hillary, but nonetheless, it could decrease the amount of drop off vote among women.
FitzGerald barely had a primary opponent.[/quote]One who was an African American and to the left of Fitz, so Ealy wasn't a threat at all, but he did win 17% so there is some hostility still from Fitz's problems in gaining black support. That and others from that 17% probably had no idea who either candidate was. Meanwhile, Kasich avoided a Tea Party challenge and with no other right-winger on the general ballot, that bodes very well for him.
Of course!
You need advertisements. People don't know who he is, and not many people know who Sheldon Adelson is, nobody knows that 'he's in touch with average Ohioans' because he has no ads, and he needs to define himself before Kasich defines him.[/quote]He's not made of money though like Kasich! FitzGerald still has a little time before Kasich begins to go from "the strength of Ohio" to offensive attacks, but for now, he's finding other efficient and inexpensive ways to make his name known through merchandise, events all around the state in places like Youngstown, Dayton, Cincinnati and rural areas, listens to the concerns of average, struggling Ohioans keeps on getting endorsement after endorsement (too many to name) and newspaper/TV interviews. It isn't FitzGerald's fault that Ohioans are completely uninformed. Half of my college has no idea who he even is!
There is no reasonable evidence that Kasich has gotten a post-primary bounce, especially since he ran unopposed. I think it's more along the lines of people know who he is, and many of those people support what he's been doing.[/quote]Still, that says something. FitzGerald only managed 83% of Democratic support to Kasich who automatically got 100% support. Nearly 600,000 of registered Republicans were willing to show up to the polls still to vote for him and considering there were more GOP primary voters than Democratic primary voters, some of those Kasich voters are some who would have otherwise voted for Stevenot. I doubt any Republican would really vote for Fitz or Rios in the general, either.
If it's ineffective on the polls and name ID, it's a terrible ad. How does that even make a "great ad"?[/quote]It only failed on that end because it's a radio ad which means 1) No visuals and 2) Less likely for people to hear it than they would a TV ad. The ad itself though and it's message is awesome (I recommend listening to it) and while it did little to help, it boosted name ID by a couple of points and was aired right before the primary.
Congratulations, nobody knows about that since he's airing ineffective ads/none at all.[/quote]An ad is definitely coming and likely in late June or so. All it takes is one positive ad to explain to voters who FitzGerald is and one to go after Kasich's record as Governor.
That's the way to win in today's politics. You may not like it (actually, very few people like it) but FitzGerald needs to find donors to define himself.[/quote]He does. The problem is the set limit on campaign contributions in Ohio, so people, politicians, unions, organizations and the state party can only provide so much.
This is not a tossup at this point. I'm pretty sure it's a likely gop race. It has the potential to be close, but right now I don't see FitzGerald winning.
[/quote]>Sabato. PPP had his race tied, but TBF, it was conducted by the ODP so that's why I have it as tossup/tilt R. Quinnipiac polls might usually be the most reliable in Ohio, but Kasich just isn't up that much and doesn't have >50% approvals. Ohio is naturally a very split state and Kasich barely won in a GOP wave with only a plurality, so this poll, despite being off, I averaged it with the rest of the recent ones and Kasich is within single digits of FitzGerald at Kasich's peak. He's still very vulnerable.