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  OH-Quinnipiac: Gov. Kasich (R) opens massive lead
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Gov. Kasich (R) opens massive lead  (Read 2680 times)
Flake
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« Reply #25 on: May 15, 2014, 01:14:24 am »

Guys, this isn't over. Far from it. For one thing, there are a number of contributing factors to Kasich's 10 point rise since Quinnipiac's last poll. One is former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour headlined the ORP dinner recently and publicly endorsed Kasich with Senator Portman introducing him plus Kasich had his State of the State speech a few months back that reaffirms the "trust" Ohio has in him.

Those factors really don't affect the race. Who in Ohio is going to think "Hey, I'm gonna support Kasich" because Haley Barbour endorsed him?

On the flip side though, Chairman Redfern and the ODP managed to score President Bill Clinton for their dinner in Columbus on June 13th which means he'll be able to rally Ready4Hillary voters in Ohio and GOTV for FitzGerald.

Bill Clinton won't help FitzGerald much, maybe some fundraising, but not enough to come close to Kasich's numbers.

Let's keep in mind to that this poll was conducted post-primary when Kasich unanimously won the GOP nomination unopposed


FitzGerald barely had a primary opponent.

and after a month long of running ads statewide that are airing on local, statewide and even some national news stations. 2 of them come from Kasich's $8 million war chest which tout how he grew up along the Ohio River (technically false) and understood the value of hard-work and a dollar. Another ad spent by the RGA mentioned the high deficit and high unemployment 4 years ago under Strickland and under Kasich, there's a balanced budget without raising taxes. But when fact checked, Kasich's claim that Ohio was in "Freefall" in the summer of 2010 is false because the economy was actually on the upturn then with the economy slowly improving. As for erasing our billion $ deficit, Kasich ended up doing that at the expense of funding for schools and local governments which put the burden of tax levies on taxpayers themselves (especially in Cuyahoga County) and Kasich still did raise taxes on us in the form of the sales tax just so he could get his income and personal property tax cuts. The ads didn't mention FitzGerald at all either and it was all Kasich and some positive gloating that Ohioans unfortunately were gullible enough to buy into it seems.

If you have money, you can buy advertisements, and people are (very) gullible, especially undecided voters.

Ed FitzGerald at least doesn't have to resort to ads to win voters over and cares more about the issues and us as opposed to Kasich who acts in the best interests of the top 1%, Sheldon Adelson, and whatever gets him to the Presidency easily. FitzGerald's wife has to work two jobs just to get their family by and he understands the struggles Ohioans are facing and like Weiland has strongly emphasized a grassroots campaign.

You need advertisements. People don't know who he is, and not many people know who Sheldon Adelson is, nobody knows that 'he's in touch with average Ohioans' because he has no ads, and he needs to define himself before Kasich defines him.

If you take the PPP tied poll, SurveyUSA's Kasich +10 poll, Rassy's Kasich +7 poll, Magellan's Kasich +6 poll, and Q's Kasich +15 poll, you have an average of about a 7-8 point lead for Kasich. Considering then that this is only a temporary surge for Kasich then in the polls from the aforementioned things, it will be a race within 2-4 points again in about a month following FitzGerald's boost in support from the Clinton's and maybe some help he might finally get from the DGA for an ad buy.

There is no reasonable evidence that Kasich has gotten a post-primary bounce, especially since he ran unopposed. I think it's more along the lines of people know who he is, and many of those people support what he's been doing.

He already purchased a radio ad that was ineffective on the polls and name ID, but showed FitzGerald can make great ads.

If it's ineffective on the polls and name ID, it's a terrible ad. How does that even make a "great ad"?

Simply attack Kasich from a fiscal standpoint on giving tax breaks to the wealthiest with barely anything for the middle class, poor and seniors to go off of, his hundred millions in cuts from schools and public safety and supports school vouchers, and reminding voters especially around Toledo and SE Ohio of Kasich's failure to help the 1,000 laid-off Ormet workers and not forgetting about SB5 and attack him on a few social issues including signing off on a bill full of abortion restrictions dangerous to a woman's health, his disfranchisement, and failure to support gay rights all of which FitzGerald is capitalizing on. Then in the second part of the ad emphasize his Ohio roots and how over the years as a FBI agent and county executive has fought crime and corruption whose created large budget surpluses, making education more affordable with college savings plans and providing more funds to low- income families of kids ready to enter pre-school, his support for seniors in reinstating the Homestead Exemption, his support for young workers by supporting a living wage increase, and an average, family man who will go to the federal government if it means fighting for equality and against voter suppression.

Congratulations, nobody knows about that since he's airing ineffective ads/none at all.

And IceSpear and OC are right. It's not FitzGerald's fault that Kasich needs a large bank account to get himself re- elected. FitzGerald is doing everything he can to raise money and is participating in interviews, rallies and events while Kasich almost seems intimidated by FitzGerald that he needs these billionaires and corporate donors to manage a favorable lead with only 6 months left to go.

That's the way to win in today's politics. You may not like it (actually, very few people like it) but FitzGerald needs to find donors to define himself.

It's clear which candidate really cares about Ohio and I not only voted for him in the primary, but I'll be campaigning for him all summer and through the fall.

I wish Kasich the best of luck ( Wink )

Not bad, either Sawx Tongue , but I've never attacked Charlie Earl since he would actually help FitzGerald out if he does make it on the general ballot and I have no problem with Quinnipiac polls anymore and I'm kind of willing to say this is a tossup still, but also tilts slightly towards Kasich.

This is not a tossup at this point. I'm pretty sure it's a likely gop race. It has the potential to be close, but right now I don't see FitzGerald winning.
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« Reply #26 on: May 15, 2014, 04:04:44 am »

A tossup? This is a tossup in the same way Santorum vs. Casey was.
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« Reply #27 on: May 15, 2014, 05:36:20 am »

A tossup? This is a tossup in the same way Santorum vs. Casey was.

I was thinking about that, too. It's incredible how when you get so involved in a campaign, you think your candidate can win when even when it's obvious he/she can't. I've learnt this lesson by losing not once, but twice. But I didn't have any polls showing my candidates trailing by 15. If that was the case, I hope I wouldn't be the guy who claimed the race was still a toss-up.
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« Reply #28 on: May 15, 2014, 10:48:37 am »

A tossup? This is a tossup in the same way Santorum vs. Casey was.

I wouldn't go that far. Let's not forget that two recent polls showed Kasich ahead by 6/7 points.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #29 on: May 15, 2014, 09:03:39 pm »
« Edited: May 15, 2014, 09:06:14 pm by Lt. Governor TJ »

Guys, this isn't over. Far from it. For one thing, there are a number of contributing factors to Kasich's 10 point rise since Quinnipiac's last poll. One is former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour headlined the ORP dinner recently and publicly endorsed Kasich with Senator Portman introducing him plus Kasich had his State of the State speech a few months back that reaffirms the "trust" Ohio has in him.

Those factors really don't affect the race. Who in Ohio is going to think "Hey, I'm gonna support Kasich" because Haley Barbour endorsed him?

On the flip side though, Chairman Redfern and the ODP managed to score President Bill Clinton for their dinner in Columbus on June 13th which means he'll be able to rally Ready4Hillary voters in Ohio and GOTV for FitzGerald.

Bill Clinton won't help FitzGerald much, maybe some fundraising, but not enough to come close to Kasich's numbers.

Let's keep in mind to that this poll was conducted post-primary when Kasich unanimously won the GOP nomination unopposed


FitzGerald barely had a primary opponent.

and after a month long of running ads statewide that are airing on local, statewide and even some national news stations. 2 of them come from Kasich's $8 million war chest which tout how he grew up along the Ohio River (technically false) and understood the value of hard-work and a dollar. Another ad spent by the RGA mentioned the high deficit and high unemployment 4 years ago under Strickland and under Kasich, there's a balanced budget without raising taxes. But when fact checked, Kasich's claim that Ohio was in "Freefall" in the summer of 2010 is false because the economy was actually on the upturn then with the economy slowly improving. As for erasing our billion $ deficit, Kasich ended up doing that at the expense of funding for schools and local governments which put the burden of tax levies on taxpayers themselves (especially in Cuyahoga County) and Kasich still did raise taxes on us in the form of the sales tax just so he could get his income and personal property tax cuts. The ads didn't mention FitzGerald at all either and it was all Kasich and some positive gloating that Ohioans unfortunately were gullible enough to buy into it seems.

If you have money, you can buy advertisements, and people are (very) gullible, especially undecided voters.

Ed FitzGerald at least doesn't have to resort to ads to win voters over and cares more about the issues and us as opposed to Kasich who acts in the best interests of the top 1%, Sheldon Adelson, and whatever gets him to the Presidency easily. FitzGerald's wife has to work two jobs just to get their family by and he understands the struggles Ohioans are facing and like Weiland has strongly emphasized a grassroots campaign.

You need advertisements. People don't know who he is, and not many people know who Sheldon Adelson is, nobody knows that 'he's in touch with average Ohioans' because he has no ads, and he needs to define himself before Kasich defines him.

If you take the PPP tied poll, SurveyUSA's Kasich +10 poll, Rassy's Kasich +7 poll, Magellan's Kasich +6 poll, and Q's Kasich +15 poll, you have an average of about a 7-8 point lead for Kasich. Considering then that this is only a temporary surge for Kasich then in the polls from the aforementioned things, it will be a race within 2-4 points again in about a month following FitzGerald's boost in support from the Clinton's and maybe some help he might finally get from the DGA for an ad buy.

There is no reasonable evidence that Kasich has gotten a post-primary bounce, especially since he ran unopposed. I think it's more along the lines of people know who he is, and many of those people support what he's been doing.

He already purchased a radio ad that was ineffective on the polls and name ID, but showed FitzGerald can make great ads.

If it's ineffective on the polls and name ID, it's a terrible ad. How does that even make a "great ad"?

Simply attack Kasich from a fiscal standpoint on giving tax breaks to the wealthiest with barely anything for the middle class, poor and seniors to go off of, his hundred millions in cuts from schools and public safety and supports school vouchers, and reminding voters especially around Toledo and SE Ohio of Kasich's failure to help the 1,000 laid-off Ormet workers and not forgetting about SB5 and attack him on a few social issues including signing off on a bill full of abortion restrictions dangerous to a woman's health, his disfranchisement, and failure to support gay rights all of which FitzGerald is capitalizing on. Then in the second part of the ad emphasize his Ohio roots and how over the years as a FBI agent and county executive has fought crime and corruption whose created large budget surpluses, making education more affordable with college savings plans and providing more funds to low- income families of kids ready to enter pre-school, his support for seniors in reinstating the Homestead Exemption, his support for young workers by supporting a living wage increase, and an average, family man who will go to the federal government if it means fighting for equality and against voter suppression.

Congratulations, nobody knows about that since he's airing ineffective ads/none at all.

And IceSpear and OC are right. It's not FitzGerald's fault that Kasich needs a large bank account to get himself re- elected. FitzGerald is doing everything he can to raise money and is participating in interviews, rallies and events while Kasich almost seems intimidated by FitzGerald that he needs these billionaires and corporate donors to manage a favorable lead with only 6 months left to go.

That's the way to win in today's politics. You may not like it (actually, very few people like it) but FitzGerald needs to find donors to define himself.

It's clear which candidate really cares about Ohio and I not only voted for him in the primary, but I'll be campaigning for him all summer and through the fall.

I wish Kasich the best of luck ( Wink )

Not bad, either Sawx Tongue , but I've never attacked Charlie Earl since he would actually help FitzGerald out if he does make it on the general ballot and I have no problem with Quinnipiac polls anymore and I'm kind of willing to say this is a tossup still, but also tilts slightly towards Kasich.

This is not a tossup at this point. I'm pretty sure it's a likely gop race. It has the potential to be close, but right now I don't see FitzGerald winning.
^^
I was about to try and respond to this but I see Flo beat me to it.

My heavens, Adam, your post almost made me want to write Kasich a check.

Anyway, I think it's safe to assume for now this poll is a bit of an outlier, as were the PPP polls showing the race tied. Kasich is up, but not by 15, maybe somewhere in the high single digits. Still no one outside the Cleveland area knows who FitzGerald is, and at this point they don't seem to care much either. I do expect the undecideds to break toward FitzGerald, but I think Kasich may be up enough to hold him off.
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« Reply #30 on: May 16, 2014, 01:18:43 am »

Guys, this isn't over. Far from it. For one thing, there are a number of contributing factors to Kasich's 10 point rise since Quinnipiac's last poll. One is former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour headlined the ORP dinner recently and publicly endorsed Kasich with Senator Portman introducing him plus Kasich had his State of the State speech a few months back that reaffirms the "trust" Ohio has in him.

Those factors really don't affect the race. Who in Ohio is going to think "Hey, I'm gonna support Kasich" because Haley Barbour endorsed him?
Well, it won't make the Tea Party hate him any less and Barbour certainly assisted in the Ohio Republicans further uniting behind Kasich and picking up a few undecideds. That dinner was the ORP's biggest fundraiser and as a reminder, this further helps in Kasich avoiding his old "Tea Party" label with Barbour as this pro-establishment RNC figure who touts how Kasich in DC balanced a budget, in OH balanced a budget, and all that stuff voters eat up with the "unity" of the state party, that "Ohio works" under Kasich and avoiding connection to the entangled, corrupt DC Republicans.

Quote from: Flo
On the flip side though, Chairman Redfern and the ODP managed to score President Bill Clinton for their dinner in Columbus on June 13th which means he'll be able to rally Ready4Hillary voters in Ohio and GOTV for FitzGerald.

Bill Clinton won't help FitzGerald much, maybe some fundraising, but not enough to come close to Kasich's numbers.
Clinton's a lot better than Barbour though. One is a former President, the other a former Governor. One is a failed Pres. candidate and the other has a wife who's loved by all political parties alike. He's going to raise FitzGerald a ton of money and maybe he can make a connection to Kasich's Presidential threat to Hillary by stating that a vote for FitzGerald is a vote for Hillary, but nonetheless, it could decrease the amount of drop off vote among women.

Quote from: Flo
Let's keep in mind to that this poll was conducted post-primary when Kasich unanimously won the GOP nomination unopposed


FitzGerald barely had a primary opponent.
One who was an African American and to the left of Fitz, so Ealy wasn't a threat at all, but he did win 17% so there is some hostility still from Fitz's problems in gaining black support. That and others from that 17% probably had no idea who either candidate was. Meanwhile, Kasich avoided a Tea Party challenge and with no other right-winger on the general ballot, that bodes very well for him.

Quote from: Flo
If you have money, you can buy advertisements, and people are (very) gullible, especially undecided voters.
Of course!

Quote from: Flo
Ed FitzGerald at least doesn't have to resort to ads to win voters over and cares more about the issues and us as opposed to Kasich who acts in the best interests of the top 1%, Sheldon Adelson, and whatever gets him to the Presidency easily. FitzGerald's wife has to work two jobs just to get their family by and he understands the struggles Ohioans are facing and like Weiland has strongly emphasized a grassroots campaign.
You need advertisements. People don't know who he is, and not many people know who Sheldon Adelson is, nobody knows that 'he's in touch with average Ohioans' because he has no ads, and he needs to define himself before Kasich defines him.
He's not made of money though like Kasich! FitzGerald still has a little time before Kasich begins to go from "the strength of Ohio" to offensive attacks, but for now, he's finding other efficient and inexpensive ways to make his name known through merchandise, events all around the state in places like Youngstown, Dayton, Cincinnati and rural areas, listens to the concerns of average, struggling Ohioans keeps on getting endorsement after endorsement (too many to name) and newspaper/TV interviews. It isn't FitzGerald's fault that Ohioans are completely uninformed. Half of my college has no idea who he even is!

Quote from: Flo
If you take the PPP tied poll, SurveyUSA's Kasich +10 poll, Rassy's Kasich +7 poll, Magellan's Kasich +6 poll, and Q's Kasich +15 poll, you have an average of about a 7-8 point lead for Kasich. Considering then that this is only a temporary surge for Kasich then in the polls from the aforementioned things, it will be a race within 2-4 points again in about a month following FitzGerald's boost in support from the Clinton's and maybe some help he might finally get from the DGA for an ad buy.

There is no reasonable evidence that Kasich has gotten a post-primary bounce, especially since he ran unopposed. I think it's more along the lines of people know who he is, and many of those people support what he's been doing.
Still, that says something. FitzGerald only managed 83% of Democratic support to Kasich who automatically got 100% support. Nearly 600,000 of registered Republicans were willing to show up to the polls still to vote for him and considering there were more GOP primary voters than Democratic primary voters, some of those Kasich voters are some who would have otherwise voted for Stevenot. I doubt any Republican would really vote for Fitz or Rios in the general, either.

Quote from: Flo
He already purchased a radio ad that was ineffective on the polls and name ID, but showed FitzGerald can make great ads.

If it's ineffective on the polls and name ID, it's a terrible ad. How does that even make a "great ad"?
It only failed on that end because it's a radio ad which means 1) No visuals and 2) Less likely for people to hear it than they would a TV ad. The ad itself though and it's message is awesome (I recommend listening to it) and while it did little to help, it boosted name ID by a couple of points and was aired right before the primary.

Quote from: Flo
Simply attack Kasich from a fiscal standpoint on giving tax breaks to the wealthiest with barely anything for the middle class, poor and seniors to go off of, his hundred millions in cuts from schools and public safety and supports school vouchers, and reminding voters especially around Toledo and SE Ohio of Kasich's failure to help the 1,000 laid-off Ormet workers and not forgetting about SB5 and attack him on a few social issues including signing off on a bill full of abortion restrictions dangerous to a woman's health, his disfranchisement, and failure to support gay rights all of which FitzGerald is capitalizing on. Then in the second part of the ad emphasize his Ohio roots and how over the years as a FBI agent and county executive has fought crime and corruption whose created large budget surpluses, making education more affordable with college savings plans and providing more funds to low- income families of kids ready to enter pre-school, his support for seniors in reinstating the Homestead Exemption, his support for young workers by supporting a living wage increase, and an average, family man who will go to the federal government if it means fighting for equality and against voter suppression.

Congratulations, nobody knows about that since he's airing ineffective ads/none at all.
An ad is definitely coming and likely in late June or so. All it takes is one positive ad to explain to voters who FitzGerald is and one to go after Kasich's record as Governor.

Quote from: Flo
And IceSpear and OC are right. It's not FitzGerald's fault that Kasich needs a large bank account to get himself re- elected. FitzGerald is doing everything he can to raise money and is participating in interviews, rallies and events while Kasich almost seems intimidated by FitzGerald that he needs these billionaires and corporate donors to manage a favorable lead with only 6 months left to go.

That's the way to win in today's politics. You may not like it (actually, very few people like it) but FitzGerald needs to find donors to define himself.
He does. The problem is the set limit on campaign contributions in Ohio, so people, politicians, unions, organizations and the state party can only provide so much.

Quote from: Flo
Not bad, either Sawx Tongue , but I've never attacked Charlie Earl since he would actually help FitzGerald out if he does make it on the general ballot and I have no problem with Quinnipiac polls anymore and I'm kind of willing to say this is a tossup still, but also tilts slightly towards Kasich.

This is not a tossup at this point. I'm pretty sure it's a likely gop race. It has the potential to be close, but right now I don't see FitzGerald winning.
>Sabato. PPP had his race tied, but TBF, it was conducted by the ODP so that's why I have it as tossup/tilt R. Quinnipiac polls might usually be the most reliable in Ohio, but Kasich just isn't up that much and doesn't have >50% approvals. Ohio is naturally a very split state and Kasich barely won in a GOP wave with only a plurality, so this poll, despite being off, I averaged it with the rest of the recent ones and Kasich is within single digits of FitzGerald at Kasich's peak. He's still very vulnerable.
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« Reply #31 on: May 16, 2014, 04:42:56 am »

If you don't wanna read the text above me...

Summary: KaSick is leading because Haley Barbour visiting Ohio and having no republican challenger in the primary boosted him this month. But the Barbomentum will be over sooner or later and the race will be tied again, even if FitGerald doesn't have money.
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