Tancredo considers White House bid...

[Moooooo]

Rep. Tom Tancredo, R-Colo., fresh from victory in three online presidential straw polls over formidable candidates, told Joseph Farah's radio audience today he would run for president in 2008 if no other Republican candidate takes the border issue seriously.

"I'll tell you what," he said, "if no one else does it, I will do it."

Tancredo is the head of the House Immigration Reform Caucus and has challenged his own party's president on the issue of an insecure border and his proposed "guest worker" proposal.

[Akno21]

Who?

That's the question that will doom him outside of political nut forums.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Has anyone ever heard of this guy?

[TomC]

No, but it's an issue that could make him known. He could be a spoiler/broker type candidate.

[Notre Dame rules!]

He's on C-span all the time, not that C-span has many viewers. 

[AuH2O]

He's been on all the cable shows like O'Reilly, which have millions of viewers. And primaries aren't about the entire population, they're about party activists, and they know Tancredo.

It's an interesting situation, that's for sure. Tancredo might even get favorable media coverage in a sense, as bizarre as that sounds, because the media tends to attack the frontrunner, which certainly wouldn't be a Tancredo, and the media also loves controversy.

He definitely should consider it.

[Notre Dame rules!]

I like his position. I would consider voting for him, even though he wouldn't have a snowball's chance in hell. You never know, though.

The interesting thing is the possible parallel with Howard Dean. Dean was a nobody who seized the issue of Iraq (which the other Democrats were ignoring) and rode it; Tancredo is a nobody who could seize the issue of immigration (which the GOP is ignoring) and ride it.

Actually, both Parties are ignoring the immigration issue.  Interestingly, every single time that Americans get to vote on Immigration issues, they vote to tighten the rules, usually by overwhelming majorities--yet all of the politicians ignore them.

Tancredo could ride this issue a long way, though to the top would be difficult.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The only white house that Tancredo is on his way to is the Nuthouse in a white straightjacket.

[WalterMitty]

i believe in totally open borders.

[Keystone Phil]

Tancredo won't go far. He'll be the Republican version of Kucinich in a Presidential race.

[AuH2O]

The difference is that Tancredo is basically a regular Republican, just willing to stand up on illegal immigration. Do not underestimate the anger on that issue.

[they don't love you like i love you]

He's just a Rep. And he holds no real important positions. He'll go nowhere. He's got as much reason to run as my Rep does.

[Keystone Phil]

Do not underestimate the anger on that issue.

I am angry over the issue too but he won't go far at all. Great that he's standing up for what he believes in but running for President on a single issue is wrong.

[WalterMitty]

the only thing wrong with the president's proposal is that it doesnt go far enough.

we need blanket amnesty and open borders.  isnt it time to end our racist immigration laws?

[Rob]

the only thing wrong with the president's proposal is that it doesnt go far enough.

we need blanket amnesty and open borders.  isnt it time to end our racist immigration laws?

This coming from a so-called Republican?

I'm sorry, that's unfair. The Republican Party in general is horrible on this issue. Apparently, cheap labor outweighs the cost of high crime rates. What bullsh**t.

[WalterMitty]

the only thing wrong with the president's proposal is that it doesnt go far enough.

we need blanket amnesty and open borders.  isnt it time to end our racist immigration laws?

This coming from a so-called Republican?

I'm sorry, that's unfair. The Republican Party in general is horrible on this issue. Apparently, cheap labor outweighs the cost of high crime rates. What bullsh**t.

republicans claim to be the party of family values.

i think someone moving their family to america just so their kids can have better opportunities is a good example of family values at work.

it makes my blood boil for people like that to be labeled 'criminals'.  the employers that hire them at sub-standard wages and work them like dogs are the real criminals.

[No more McShame]

if they're breaking the law, they are by definition criminals.

[AuH2O]

Yeah, I guess the US is actually even more racist because we don't help people illegally immigrate who can't just walk.. what about all those poor Africans and Indians and Chinese.

How about we let in 5 billion immigrants? No problem.

Or, maybe we should just take over the whole world so that you don't need to come to the US, the US comes to you!!!

Yeah, you know what, the MS-13 gangs wreaking havoc, the out of control medical expenses, education expenses, it's awesome. I love it when we import drug dealers and rapists and murderers and take jobs away from Americans. That's what the US government should be doing-- ing Americans.  America, let's just become a bigger, meaner Brazil. That's a pretty awesome future for OUR kids.

So how about this: anyone that supports breaking our laws, taking our money, and even committing additional crimes, can go  themselves. That's for politicians, businesses, whoever, I don't care. If I was in charge, I'd shoot them all, whatever party they're in. The illegals I would just deport.

[opebo]

it makes my blood boil for people like that to be labeled 'criminals'.  the employers that hire them at sub-standard wages and work them like dogs are the real criminals.

This from the man who hates unions and scoffs at a decent minimum wage.

[WalterMitty]

it makes my blood boil for people like that to be labeled 'criminals'.  the employers that hire them at sub-standard wages and work them like dogs are the real criminals.

This from the man who hates unions and scoffs at a decent minimum wage.

a lot of the illegals are being paid under the minimum wage. 

if they are given amnesty, perhaps so many of them wont be paid 'under the table'. 

[Rob]

it makes my blood boil for people like that to be labeled 'criminals'.  the employers that hire them at sub-standard wages and work them like dogs are the real criminals.

This from the man who hates unions and scoffs at a decent minimum wage.

a lot of the illegals are being paid under the minimum wage. 

if they are given amnesty, perhaps so many of them wont be paid 'under the table'. 

It will never be enough. That's probably the worst thing you could do- it will encourage more illegal immigration! That would be a horrible precedent to set, because illegals wouldn't take the law seriously.

[The Duke]

Having answered phones all day in a poltical office, a Congressional District office, for a whole summer, I have to say that a Tancredo candidacy should be taken very seriously.

The most calls we got on a single issue on a single day was the support calls we got when the Border Patrol did sweeps to pick up illegals.  The second most calls were the complaint calls we got when the BP stopped the sweeps.

Let me say this with confidence, not arrogance, to anyone who doubts this man, Tancredo.  He can win the Republican primary.  The immigration issue has such a base of anger in the GOP, that its a powder keg waiting to blow.  I'm not saying he will win, but he aboslutely can, and anyone who doesn't think so doesn't know jack squat about the Republican base.

[Akno21]

Having answered phones all day in a poltical office, a Congressional District office, for a whole summer, I have to say that a Tancredo candidacy should be taken very seriously.

The most calls we got on a single issue on a single day was the support calls we got when the Border Patrol did sweeps to pick up illegals.  The second most calls were the complaint calls we got when the BP stopped the sweeps.

Let me say this with confidence, not arrogance, to anyone who doubts this man, Tancredo.  He can win the Republican primary.  The immigration issue has such a base of anger in the GOP, that its a powder keg waiting to blow.  I'm not saying he will win, but he aboslutely can, and anyone who doesn't think so doesn't know jack squat about the Republican base.

He has a very good chance at winning the California Primary, which would really shake things up delegate-wise.

He'd definitly be the Dean of the Republicans, because if you figure he'd do terribly among Hispanics, he'd lose you Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, and possibly Colorado. He doesn't have gravitas, he certainly won't be the establishment favorite.

The anger is there, though is it there in places such as Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina?

[AuH2O]

Yes. Yes. And, yes.

And, actually, I don't buy the idea no hispanics will vote for him. First of all, "hispanic" is a broad category-- did Anglos like the Irish when they came over in large numbers. No.

Secondly, to vote, normally, you have to be a citizen of the US. So illegals might not like him, but they don't vote. Every single poll ever conducted indicates support for defending the border across racial and party lines. Indeed, hispanic support among likely voters for protecting the border is probably at least 65% and possibly as high as 75%.

Thirdly, this is not a geographic issue. Illegal immigrants are most common in the Southwest, but there are enough elsewhere and its in the news enough to be a national issue. Unlike Dean's anti-Iraq War pitch, the illegal immigrant issue resonates with independents and many Democrats. In open primaries, that could make a substantial difference.

In a scenario where a Bill Frist gets establishment backing and no other serious candidates enter, Tancredo would possibly be deadlier than McCain was to Bush, because Frist is weaker than Bush and because Tancredo has something McCain didn't: solid conservative credentials across the board.

There is definite precedent for the willingness of voters to protest on the basis of a single issue. Perot, a horrible candidate in basically every single way, screwed up his campaign on top of that and still did very well in 1992 on the basis of the national debt, a less anger-inspiring issue than illegal immigration.

Ford is absolutely correct. Underestimating Tancredo might be a common mistake, but for some people, it might become the last political mistake they ever make. Tancredo could easily finish 2nd in Iowa and then win New Hampshire, which normally hates establishment candidates and voted for Buchanan in 1996, who didn't hold office at all and is much further right than Tancredo.

Then the establishment has a pretty serious problem. Tancredo would have a lot of traction in South Carolina, where even McCain got 42%. Another difference is that GOP voters will not really be that motivated to end Democratic possession of the White House, because unlike 2000, now they've held it for 8 years. Oh and SC has an open primary and a fair number of illegal immigrants... there is VERY, VERY substantial anti-illegal sentiment across the board.

If Tancredo wins SC, basically, it's over. The establishment would have one last chance to make a stand in Virginia, but at that point it wouldn't work. That is NOT an unrealistic scenario at all. In fact, against a mediocre establishment pick, it might even be likely. The game theory is very enticing for Tancredo, who also would have solid fundraising ability in short order.

note: on the issue of calls to Congressional offices, they are common across the board as well. I know multiple people working for South Carolinian representatives, and they get more calls on this than anything else.

note 2: I'm not exactly sure what the primary order in 2008 will be, so I'm operating on the SQ.

note 3: the Chairwoman of Tancredo's PAC "Team America" is Bay Buchanan.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It will never be enough. That's probably the worst thing you could do- it will encourage more illegal immigration! That would be a horrible precedent to set, because illegals wouldn't take the law seriously.

I personally think that limiting the amount of water the greedy agribusiness in California et al get would go a long way to reducing the number of illegal immigrants