NH-Vox Populi (R): Sen. Shaheen (D) crushing Brown & Smith

[Tender Branson]

New Hampshire Political Issues
N = 707 Active Voters
May 14 - 15

SENBALLOT1: And the candidates were Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Scott Brown, for whom would you vote?

Democrat, Jeanne Shaheen 47
Republican, Scott Brown 35

SENBALLOT2: And if the candidates were Democrat Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Bob Smith, for whom would you vote?

Democrat, Jeanne Shaheen 45
Republican, Bob Smith 34

http://www.poppolling.com/useruploads/files/nh_may_senate_topline.pdf

[windjammer]

Lol Vox Populi.

Okay, Shaheen is leading, but not by this margin. By 6-8 points, it would be more accurate.

[RogueBeaver]

I'd be surprised if Shaheen's margin isn't double digits. Brown's frankly beclowning himself IMO. Been acting weird since the late stages of '12.

[Niemeyerite]

I find this pretty likely, even if the poll was taken before the Energy Bill scandal.

[free my dawg]

Dominating.

The people of NH must surely realize that Browncare fathered Shaheencare.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hahahahahahahahahahahaha

[Miles]

Ugh, I'm starting to feel sorry for Brown.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Brown brought this on himself, Miles. Like RogueBeaver said--and I'm glad he's admitting this since I know he's been a big Brown supporter for a long time--he's been acting ridiculous.

[SWE]

Tossup!

[Maxwell]

This is as safe as it gets.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Makes me wonder if a better candidate might have been able to do something here, seeing that Shaheen is below 50.


Unfortunately, we don't have many Jim Webbs or Kay Hagans waiting to exploit and opening and Shaheen isn't as foolish as Allen and Dole.

[RogueBeaver]

From what I understand there is no Pub bench in NH. That said, this was still an insane idea from the outset.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The pub NH bench consists entirely of the Sununu family.

[henster]

Since this is an R leaning poll run by one of the Cheney daughters I suspect Shaheen may be leading by even more she's been running positive ads lately she could be well above 50 and crushing Brown by an even larger margin.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Ouch. Is it too late for Scott Brown to find some other state to lose in?

[free my dawg]

From what I understand there is no Pub bench in NH. That said, this was still an insane idea from the outset.

I wouldn't go as far to say that they have no bench. In fact, their bench is a bit larger than the other bench. Although they wasted one of their two A-list candidates on the wrong race, they still have a decent amount of candidates there, and more than the NH Democrats do, especially in the second district.

• The obvious name that jumps out, and the best candidate any of the parties have, is Chris Sununu, my Executive Councillor and heir to the Sununu name. He has a decent reputation as a moderate, and he has enough name recognition to hold down his Republican-tilting seat.
• Marilinda Garcia is a rising star too, and would be the perfect candidate for national stardom if she wasn't too conservative for NH-2. She's a fool to have passed on a Senate run - although she may only be a state representative, she's a better candidate than Brown, this race is much more winnable than Kuster's seat, and she would be floated as a presidential contender in 2020 if she won.
• The one name in the State Senate, of course, is Jeb Bradley, the big fish in the small pond, and a former Congressman. You all know him.
• Other than that, you've gotta think Chuck Morse runs for something higher-up soon. He's admitted that his party can't beat Hassan this year, so I'm guessing he will make a run in 2016 for Governor or NH-2 (probably the second, considering I think Kuster goes for Ayotte). That would clear the field for a Marilinda Garcia revival.
• I'd say the best bet outside of the leadership is Jeannie Forrester, a high-ranking state senator from the North Country. She doesn't have much of a moderate reputation, but if you're holding an even seat by over 60%, you're doing something right.
• Former Senate President and LGC head Peter Bragdon could definitely make a comeback too, considering he's only 50, and he's got quite the resume behind him. People should have forgotten about his brief conflict-of-interest scandal now that that's been resolved.
  
  
• Another intriguing option is Nancy Stiles. She's a very skilled politician, and she's been able to mask her various flip-flops over the past two years by portraying herself as a down-to-earth legislator who's "here to listen". She's one of the few pro-gay marriage Republicans in the legislature, but her career might be coming to a short end this year when she faces a strong primary challenge.
• Gubernatorial candidate Andrew Hemingway is also a decent option. He's 33, the former head of the Republican Liberty Caucus, a young business entrepreneur, and is pro-gay and pro-marijuana. He has enough money to make waves, but the only problem is that he's running against someone who he can't beat. Like Garcia, I could see him succeed in the future, but now is not his time.
• Andy Sanborn looks good on paper, but like I said, he has far too much baggage to be a contender above this level.
• Odell has ridden off into the sunset.
• Innis is also irrelevant. While he'd be another "intriguing candidate" and a very strong bet to pick up NH-1, there is no way he makes it past the primary. He voted for his colleague in the 2012 primary for governor... only problem was, she was a Democrat running on an income tax. Thinking realistically, that's just not going to fly with GOP voters.

[Lief 🗽]

I look forward to Shaheen giving Scott a good spanking in November.

[Ogre Mage]

I look forward to Shaheen giving Scott a good spanking in November.

Shaheen and Elizabeth Warren can get matching t-shirts saying "I beat Trucky McBarncoat."