GA-Rasmussen: Carter (D) leads Gov. Deal (R)

[Tender Branson]

No joke !

Georgia Governor: Carter (D) 48%, Deal (R) 41%

Monday, May 26, 2014

Incumbent Republican Nathan Deal trails Democratic challenger Jason Carter by seven points in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the Georgia gubernatorial race.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Georgia Voters finds Carter with 48% support to Deal’s 41%. Three percent (3%) like another candidate in the race, while seven percent (7%) are undecided.

The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Georgia was conducted on May 21-22, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/georgia/election_2014_georgia_governor

[Tender Branson]

Looks like an outlier and a big one too.

[Lief 🗽]

It's happening...

[Flake]

New Poll: Georgia Governor by Rasmussen on 2014-05-22

Summary: D: 48%, R: 41%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Mr. Illini]

Dominating!

[moderatevoter]

> Rasmussen

[LeBron]

Kasich leads by 7, but Carter also leads by 7. I don't think it's so much that Rassy is terrible (they still are), but the amount of DGA influence in this race and the amount of national significance he's getting alongside Nunn is really helping here. He has a strong record to run on aside from his gun controversy, but I still fear Deal will try to tie Carter to Obama from being good friends with his grandfather. Carter will struggle with undecided's and he'll probably struggle more than Nunn to break 50%, but Deal's unpopularity and scandals could help in boosting the Libertarian vote.

[Adam Griffin]

See sig.

[Niemeyerite]

Kasich leads by 7, but Carter also leads by 7. I don't think it's so much that Rassy is terrible (they still are), but the amount of DGA influence in this race and the amount of national significance he's getting alongside Nunn is really helping here. He has a strong record to run on aside from his gun controversy, but I still fear Deal will try to tie Carter to Obama from being good friends with his grandfather. Carter will struggle with undecided's and he'll probably struggle more than Nunn to break 50%, but Deal's unpopularity and scandals could help in boosting the Libertarian vote.

Differences:

1. Kasich is a popular Governor, Deal isn't.
2. FitzGerald is a joke candidate, Carter isn't.

[windjammer]

See sig.

It's time to fight communist and their GA sbires :@

--------------
No seriously, Rasmussen is a joke pollster... Deal isn't leading by 7

[badgate]

L+1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP are vastly underestimating Nunn and Grimes chances. Which boards well for us in States like Wisc and Ga where corruption as well as obstructionism will be factors.

[Flake]

The GOP are vastly underestimating Nunn and Grimes chances. Which boards well for us in States like Wisc and Ga where corruption as well as obstructionism will be factors.

Congrats,  but this is a gubernatorial election

[Free Bird]

Kasich leads by 7, but Carter also leads by 7. I don't think it's so much that Rassy is terrible (they still are), but the amount of DGA influence in this race and the amount of national significance he's getting alongside Nunn is really helping here. He has a strong record to run on aside from his gun controversy, but I still fear Deal will try to tie Carter to Obama from being good friends with his grandfather. Carter will struggle with undecided's and he'll probably struggle more than Nunn to break 50%, but Deal's unpopularity and scandals could help in boosting the Libertarian vote.

Differences:

1. Kasich is a popular Governor, Deal isn't.
2. FitzGerald is a joke candidate, Carter isn't.

[LeBron]

Kasich leads by 7, but Carter also leads by 7. I don't think it's so much that Rassy is terrible (they still are), but the amount of DGA influence in this race and the amount of national significance he's getting alongside Nunn is really helping here. He has a strong record to run on aside from his gun controversy, but I still fear Deal will try to tie Carter to Obama from being good friends with his grandfather. Carter will struggle with undecided's and he'll probably struggle more than Nunn to break 50%, but Deal's unpopularity and scandals could help in boosting the Libertarian vote.

Differences:

1. Kasich is a popular Governor, Deal isn't.
2. FitzGerald is a joke candidate, Carter isn't.

FTR, he's been [Inks]ing me with this sort of stuff for the past month. AFAIK, he isn't serious, but since you believe it, I'll address these real quick. Regarding Kasich's approval, Quinnipiac has him at 56%, but SurveyUSA has him at only a 46% approval and PPP had him at an abysmal 37% approval in their November poll. Those average out to roughly a 46% approval which is just above the re-electing point of a 44% approval and this is an approval at Kasich's massive boost from his surge of ads with little FitzGerald name ID and influence on the state so far.

Also, RCP's average is only Kasich +9.5 which includes the few R-leaning polls and doesn't include the PPP internals. FitzGerald, opposed to Carter, hasn't had everything personally handed to him in a paper bag by the DGA, so get rid of this stuff that FitzGerald is a "joke candidate" when he's still being fairly competitive even when he's getting no outside help and relying on individual donors/state organizations and GOTV fundraising and rallies. Given the two states, FitzGerald can also afford to run on a more liberal platform while Carter is stuck having to turnoff more liberal voters if he has any chance of beating Deal. Let's aim for a Governor seat we can actually win.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Kasich leads by 7, but Carter also leads by 7. I don't think it's so much that Rassy is terrible (they still are), but the amount of DGA influence in this race and the amount of national significance he's getting alongside Nunn is really helping here. He has a strong record to run on aside from his gun controversy, but I still fear Deal will try to tie Carter to Obama from being good friends with his grandfather. Carter will struggle with undecided's and he'll probably struggle more than Nunn to break 50%, but Deal's unpopularity and scandals could help in boosting the Libertarian vote.

Differences:

1. Kasich is a popular Governor, Deal isn't.
2. FitzGerald is a joke candidate, Carter isn't.

[Flake]

Kasich leads by 7, but Carter also leads by 7. I don't think it's so much that Rassy is terrible (they still are), but the amount of DGA influence in this race and the amount of national significance he's getting alongside Nunn is really helping here. He has a strong record to run on aside from his gun controversy, but I still fear Deal will try to tie Carter to Obama from being good friends with his grandfather. Carter will struggle with undecided's and he'll probably struggle more than Nunn to break 50%, but Deal's unpopularity and scandals could help in boosting the Libertarian vote.

Differences:

1. Kasich is a popular Governor, Deal isn't.
2. FitzGerald is a joke candidate, Carter isn't.

FTR, he's been [Inks]ing me with this sort of stuff for the past month. AFAIK, he isn't serious, but since you believe it, I'll address these real quick. Regarding Kasich's approval, Quinnipiac has him at 56%, but SurveyUSA has him at only a 46% approval and PPP had him at an abysmal 37% approval in their November poll. Those average out to roughly a 46% approval which is just above the re-electing point of a 44% approval and this is an approval at Kasich's massive boost from his surge of ads with little FitzGerald name ID and influence on the state so far.

Also, RCP's average is only Kasich +9.5 which includes the few R-leaning polls and doesn't include the PPP internals. FitzGerald, opposed to Carter, hasn't had everything personally handed to him in a paper bag by the DGA, so get rid of this stuff that FitzGerald is a "joke candidate" when he's still being fairly competitive even when he's getting no outside help and relying on individual donors/state organizations and GOTV fundraising and rallies. Given the two states, FitzGerald can also afford to run on a more liberal platform while Carter is stuck having to turnoff more liberal voters if he has any chance of beating Deal. Let's aim for a Governor seat we can actually win.

Yeah, let's turn Georgia (atlas) red!

[Hifly]

Kasich leads by 7, but Carter also leads by 7. I don't think it's so much that Rassy is terrible (they still are), but the amount of DGA influence in this race and the amount of national significance he's getting alongside Nunn is really helping here. He has a strong record to run on aside from his gun controversy, but I still fear Deal will try to tie Carter to Obama from being good friends with his grandfather. Carter will struggle with undecided's and he'll probably struggle more than Nunn to break 50%, but Deal's unpopularity and scandals could help in boosting the Libertarian vote.

Differences:

1. Kasich is a popular Governor, Deal isn't.
2. FitzGerald is a joke candidate, Carter isn't.

FTR, he's been [Inks]ing me with this sort of stuff for the past month. AFAIK, he isn't serious, but since you believe it, I'll address these real quick. Regarding Kasich's approval, Quinnipiac has him at 56%, but SurveyUSA has him at only a 46% approval and PPP had him at an abysmal 37% approval in their November poll. Those average out to roughly a 46% approval which is just above the re-electing point of a 44% approval and this is an approval at Kasich's massive boost from his surge of ads with little FitzGerald name ID and influence on the state so far.

Also, RCP's average is only Kasich +9.5 which includes the few R-leaning polls and doesn't include the PPP internals. FitzGerald, opposed to Carter, hasn't had everything personally handed to him in a paper bag by the DGA, so get rid of this stuff that FitzGerald is a "joke candidate" when he's still being fairly competitive even when he's getting no outside help and relying on individual donors/state organizations and GOTV fundraising and rallies. Given the two states, FitzGerald can also afford to run on a more liberal platform while Carter is stuck having to turnoff more liberal voters if he has any chance of beating Deal. Let's aim for a Governor seat we can actually win.

This is really piss poor electoral analysis. Firstly, to select an old poll from last year to come up with a current average approval rating is really only highlighting the pitiful state of your argument, for reasons I need not articulate. And you're startled as to why a polling lead average calculated by a credible third party organisation doesn't include internal polls? Seriously?
If we were to take the internal PPP polls into account, their most recent internal actually represents a striking improvement for Kasich compared to their previous one, so that's another fail.
And even though you keep on emphasising how little establishment support Fitzgerald is receiving, you're failing to realise what this means: the Democratic Establishment itself considers Fitzgerald a lost cause. Describing Fitzgerald's situation as "fairly" competitive is really an abuse of the word's meaning.
Fitzgerald can be as liberal as he wants, but it doesn't matter because he's not going to win, and he may not even come close.

[Hifly]

And meanwhile, Moderate and Socially Conservative Democrats in the state legislature like Cecil Thomas, Bill Patmon and John Barnes are going to cruise to victory, and they're going to be the ones playing a part in helping regulate the legislative agenda along with the Majority Party and deciding the outcome of tight votes, whereas Fitzgerald is going to go back to being a nobody.

[free my dawg]

Kasich leads by 7, but Carter also leads by 7. I don't think it's so much that Rassy is terrible (they still are), but the amount of DGA influence in this race and the amount of national significance he's getting alongside Nunn is really helping here. He has a strong record to run on aside from his gun controversy, but I still fear Deal will try to tie Carter to Obama from being good friends with his grandfather. Carter will struggle with undecided's and he'll probably struggle more than Nunn to break 50%, but Deal's unpopularity and scandals could help in boosting the Libertarian vote.

Differences:

1. Kasich is a popular Governor, Deal isn't.
2. FitzGerald is a joke candidate, Carter isn't.

FTR, he's been [Inks]ing me with this sort of stuff for the past month. AFAIK, he isn't serious, but since you believe it, I'll address these real quick. Regarding Kasich's approval, Quinnipiac has him at 56%, but SurveyUSA has him at only a 46% approval and PPP had him at an abysmal 37% approval in their November poll. Those average out to roughly a 46% approval which is just above the re-electing point of a 44% approval and this is an approval at Kasich's massive boost from his surge of ads with little FitzGerald name ID and influence on the state so far.

Also, RCP's average is only Kasich +9.5 which includes the few R-leaning polls and doesn't include the PPP internals. FitzGerald, opposed to Carter, hasn't had everything personally handed to him in a paper bag by the DGA, so get rid of this stuff that FitzGerald is a "joke candidate" when he's still being fairly competitive even when he's getting no outside help and relying on individual donors/state organizations and GOTV fundraising and rallies. Given the two states, FitzGerald can also afford to run on a more liberal platform while Carter is stuck having to turnoff more liberal voters if he has any chance of beating Deal. Let's aim for a Governor seat we can actually win.

Carter is trending farther up than any other candidate, Republican or Democratic.

Fitzgerald is trending farther down than any other Democrat.

End of story.

[LeBron]

Kasich leads by 7, but Carter also leads by 7. I don't think it's so much that Rassy is terrible (they still are), but the amount of DGA influence in this race and the amount of national significance he's getting alongside Nunn is really helping here. He has a strong record to run on aside from his gun controversy, but I still fear Deal will try to tie Carter to Obama from being good friends with his grandfather. Carter will struggle with undecided's and he'll probably struggle more than Nunn to break 50%, but Deal's unpopularity and scandals could help in boosting the Libertarian vote.

Differences:

1. Kasich is a popular Governor, Deal isn't.
2. FitzGerald is a joke candidate, Carter isn't.

FTR, he's been [Inks]ing me with this sort of stuff for the past month. AFAIK, he isn't serious, but since you believe it, I'll address these real quick. Regarding Kasich's approval, Quinnipiac has him at 56%, but SurveyUSA has him at only a 46% approval and PPP had him at an abysmal 37% approval in their November poll. Those average out to roughly a 46% approval which is just above the re-electing point of a 44% approval and this is an approval at Kasich's massive boost from his surge of ads with little FitzGerald name ID and influence on the state so far.

Also, RCP's average is only Kasich +9.5 which includes the few R-leaning polls and doesn't include the PPP internals. FitzGerald, opposed to Carter, hasn't had everything personally handed to him in a paper bag by the DGA, so get rid of this stuff that FitzGerald is a "joke candidate" when he's still being fairly competitive even when he's getting no outside help and relying on individual donors/state organizations and GOTV fundraising and rallies. Given the two states, FitzGerald can also afford to run on a more liberal platform while Carter is stuck having to turnoff more liberal voters if he has any chance of beating Deal. Let's aim for a Governor seat we can actually win.

This is really piss poor electoral analysis. Firstly, to select an old poll from last year to come up with a current average approval rating is really only highlighting the pitiful state of your argument, for reasons I need not articulate. And you're startled as to why a polling lead average calculated by a credible third party organisation doesn't include internal polls? Seriously?
If we were to take the internal PPP polls into account, their most recent internal actually represents a striking improvement for Kasich compared to their previous one, so that's another fail.
And even though you keep on emphasising how little establishment support Fitzgerald is receiving, you're failing to realise what this means: the Democratic Establishment itself considers Fitzgerald a lost cause. Describing Fitzgerald's situation as "fairly" competitive is really an abuse of the word's meaning.
Fitzgerald can be as liberal as he wants, but it doesn't matter because he's not going to win, and he may not even come close.

I didn't want to have to average the Nov. PPP poll in, but that was actually the last approval I found for Kasich from a PPP poll and since Quinnipiac is clearly overestimating Kasich's favorability and re-election chances, it's only fair to balance that with a poll that slightly overestimates FitzGerald's chances. Kasich more times than not has isolated his own base for expanding Medicaid, his handling of public education and raising fracking/sales taxes and even more so isolated Democrats on a variety of issues from gutting the income tax to abortion to SSM, so I'm very speculative to believe 86% of Republicans approve of the job he's doing as well as 28% of Dems and 57% of Indies. Not even FitzGerald himself is recognizing that poll for its bias and while the ODP did rely on releasing their own internal to counteract Quinnipiac's, we've yet to have a non-partisan poll from Public Policy Polling which would really determine where the race is at.

And this is where you're wrong about the establishment's lack of faith in FitzGerald. The blame can go to Shumlin for his failure to lead the DGA properly in this year's races and calling OH-Gov a "second tier" race while being "optimistic" in GA and SC. FitzGerald already has the support of all prominent Ohio Democratic politicians (including a number of African Americans) and powerful groups like AFL-CIO, United Auto Workers, Planned Parenthood, several teacher's and public safety unions, the state party, and a huge endorsement he'll get next month from Bill Clinton. Just because Shumlin is giving up on FitzGerald doesn't mean the national party will and I expect President Obama to campaign with FitzGerald, an '08 Obama supporter and close friend of Eric Kearney who himself is a friend of Obama, at some point this year as well. When Ohio is looked at from a national perspective, Kasich gets positive publicity for expanding Medicaid as opposed to Walker, Scott, Brownback etc. but Obama and the national party have been outspoken advocates for voting rights which is the other thing Ohio is getting attention for now in a negative light. Give it time is all I'll say. Strickland at first was favored to coast to re-election, but at around this time in 2010, Gov. Strickland was beginning to go downhill and currently with our economy's labor work force quitting and FitzGerald ads and more public activism yet to come, Kasich is in trouble and he can't win solely off of an Obama bailout. If FitzGerald does end up losing though, then there's always 2018 when Kasich's approval will likely be in the dump from moving farther to the polarizing right again and the seat would be open.

The difference between FitzGerald and Carter is that Carter already had the money and the national acclamation of his grandfather to easily get himself a seat in the GA State Senate and could very well end up riding his grandfather's coattails to the Governor's Mansion. FitzGerald, on the other hand, built himself up through the ladder from a law career to a city councilman to a mayor to a county executive and even then, his family understands how hard it is for any other Ohioan to send their kids to college with his wife having to work two jobs and he still manages to be slightly more successful than Jason Carter is.

[Hifly]

Oh my God.

[windjammer]

Sawx, Niemeyerite,
Could you stop always exciting Adam?

It was funny at the beginning, but now that's really boring.

Thanks.

[Niemeyerite]

Sawx, Niemeyerite,
Could you stop always exciting Adam?

It was funny at the beginning, but now that's really boring.

Thanks.

No, I can't. Sorry.

[Adam Griffin]

Even though Hifly is an incorrigible little crap who's opinion of himself exudes from every post he makes, he is kind of right about this, Adam.

By all accounts and when you look at him on paper, FitzGerald should be down by 2-3 at worst. Two years ago, Kasich looked like he was in the same boat as Corbett. The combination of voting rights restrictions and union-busting legislation had him as one of the weakest Governors in the country. Yet...FitzGerald is behind by a laughable amount in the polls. His record is great, which makes it even worse when considering that, the natural political climate of Ohio and the natural climate of other states (like Georgia).

At the end of the day, though, you can't defend him by saying that he's a good candidate. He's obviously not. He may have the fundamentals to be a good candidate, or may be a good public official, but that doesn't make him a good candidate. What makes him a good candidate is performing at least where a Generic Democrat in Ohio should be performing (down by 3 at the most). Plenty of good people and strong elected officials have went down in flames because their campaigns sucked. FitzGerald is shaping up to be one of those, it appears.

And as far as the DGA and its involvement with OH/GA goes: I don't know what you think the DGA is doing here, but I can assure you that it's nowhere near what it usually does in battleground states like Ohio - at least not yet. They are running micro-targeted ad campaigns online and are helping to build a core group of on-the-ground field operatives in the state, but that's standard fare for a state like Ohio in every election. Carter isn't even running TV spots yet, to my knowledge.

You say that Carter has a built-in advantage because of DGA involvement here in 2014 and his name recognition; I say that Ohio itself has a built-in advantage due to millions upon millions of Democratic dollars being poured into it every two years. Georgia hasn't had the same political infrastructure put into place by Democrats as states like Ohio consistently enjoy - in fact, Georgia has had virtually zero dollars invested in it by national Democrats in the past ten years. Even with Carter's name recognition, he's still being outraised by Deal at the moment. That's what makes the GA/OH - Carter/FitzGerald discrepancy even more mind-boggling: a political neophyte is doing several points better in an Atlas-blue state that has had no prior Democratic investment, while a fairly well-established candidate that is running against a historically unpopular Governor in an Atlas purple-to-red state is getting trounced.