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January 19, 2020, 11:12:34 pm
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  AR-Rasmussen: Cotton (R) up 4
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Author Topic: AR-Rasmussen: Cotton (R) up 4  (Read 2364 times)
Lizzzard
Mark Warner 08
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« on: May 29, 2014, 11:09:54 am »

Arkansas Senate: Cotton (R) 47%, Pryor (D) 43%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/arkansas/election_2014_arkansas_senate
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2014, 11:10:49 am »

Ras is still Ras. Will wait for PPP or TB.
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Lizzzard
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2014, 11:12:45 am »

Ras is still Ras. Will wait for PPP or TB.

I have no polling company, sry ... Tongue
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Free Bird
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« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2014, 11:57:22 am »

Rass. Don't care.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2014, 12:31:52 pm »

New Poll: Arkansas Senator by Rasmussen on 2014-05-28

Summary: D: 43%, R: 47%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2014, 02:15:43 pm »

The problem with Rasmussen is that this pollster successfully manages to be both a dem flawed pollster, and a rep flawed pollster.

I will probably sent to Tender Branson an open letter asking him to ban totally Rasmussen Tongue
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Never
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« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2014, 03:09:29 pm »

So... Ras is schizophrenic. I can live with that.
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Jbrase
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« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2014, 03:29:24 pm »

Ras is still Ras. Will wait for PPP or TB.

I have no polling company, sry ... Tongue

Alpine-American Respected Polling, or AARP. Tongue
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LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2014, 03:34:38 pm »

In Arkansas' 2010 Senate race, Rassy's average was Boozman +24 and it really ended up being Boozman +21, so Rassy isn't junk here, but they are off by a few. Marist of course was overestimating Pryor's chances way too much so they're negligible, but PPP did have this at Pryor +1 and TB Pryor +3, so these 3 polls indicate that this is a pure tossup now. Anyone's game, but Pryor's going to really struggle to avoid President Obama for the next 5 months and with Cotton avoiding his polarizing ideology, military service and voting record now and switching it with ads connected to him being a family man who cares about the average Arkansan, Pryor should be worried.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2014, 04:49:41 pm »

I know this sounds odd, but I have a hunch that Club for Growth's parrot-pooping-on-the-NYT ad actually may have had a slight impact.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2014, 07:31:00 pm »

In Arkansas' 2010 Senate race, Rassy's average was Boozman +24 and it really ended up being Boozman +21, so Rassy isn't junk here, but they are off by a few. Marist of course was overestimating Pryor's chances way too much so they're negligible, but PPP did have this at Pryor +1 and TB Pryor +3, so these 3 polls indicate that this is a pure tossup now. Anyone's game, but Pryor's going to really struggle to avoid President Obama for the next 5 months and with Cotton avoiding his polarizing ideology, military service and voting record now and switching it with ads connected to him being a family man who cares about the average Arkansan, Pryor should be worried.

It has long been the case that when landslides get rather big, they get hard to pin down to the point exactly. I recall that being the case with Baucus back in 2008, Hoeven and a couple of others as well.
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Torie
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« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2014, 07:58:22 pm »

Somebody said Cotton tanked (maybe it was Charlie Cook), because he voted against the execrable farm bill in the House. If so, his apparent recovery is most gratifying. Courage to do what is right even if it hurts politically should be rewarded - not punished!
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CEO of Bernie Sanders
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« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2014, 08:01:51 pm »

I'm somehow taking Rasmussen less seriously than I did in 2012.
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morgieb
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« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2014, 10:00:18 pm »

Rassmussen has been utter crap this year. Just can't get any kind of lean or reliability of their polls.
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GaussLaw
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2014, 10:14:32 pm »

Somebody said Cotton tanked (maybe it was Charlie Cook), because he voted against the execrable farm bill in the House. If so, his apparent recovery is most gratifying. Courage to do what is right even if it hurts politically should be rewarded - not punished!

Yeah, I remember that article.

A gazillion different factors are at play in poll fluctuations, some of it being random chance.  Pryor was called doomed due to a string of bad, bad polls and then he lucked out with a series of good ones.
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Kevin
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2014, 10:15:04 pm »

Somebody said Cotton tanked (maybe it was Charlie Cook), because he voted against the execrable farm bill in the House. If so, his apparent recovery is most gratifying. Courage to do what is right even if it hurts politically should be rewarded - not punished!
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2014, 07:02:21 am »

Somebody said Cotton tanked (maybe it was Charlie Cook), because he voted against the execrable farm bill in the House. If so, his apparent recovery is most gratifying. Courage to do what is right even if it hurts politically should be rewarded - not punished!
This is Rasmussen.

Cotton isn't up by 4.
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