I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does
So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls? Seriously? While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.
Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily. But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.
SWE was obviously kidding. Larry Sabato who claims to be a "political analyst" has Oregon as likely D which isn't too big of an issue considering Merkley's weaker than Wyden and it's an Obama midterm against a socially moderate Republican, yet he has KY as likely R to which says something about how intelligent Sabato really is. Sabato's trying to say that Merkley has about as good of chance of getting re-elected as McConnell. SWE was mocking him for it (and rightfully so).
And considering how flawed and biased Wenzel is, this KY race is within a point, so it further disproves Sabato's prediction and you're right when you say that Grimes is a much higher quality candidate than the scandal-plagued doctor. Likewise the other way with Merkley being a lot stronger than McConnell. 14 points is obviously enough to call it safe D and a 1-2 point race in KY is enough to call it a tossup/tilt R.
IIRC though Gauss, you're a physics teacher? So as far as I'm concerned, you're a better scientist than Sabato ever will be.
