Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
January 19, 2020, 07:59:01 am
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Endorsements Close today at noon

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
  OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead (search mode)
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: OR-PPP: Merkley (D) with a 14-point lead  (Read 1418 times)
Never
Never Convinced
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,627
Political Matrix
E: 4.65, S: 3.30

« on: May 29, 2014, 09:51:20 pm »

I'd say Merkley has about the same chances of winning as McConnell does


 So +14 in polls = +3 in the polls?  Seriously?  While Kentucky is uber-GOP, the polls show McConnell is in for a long, hard fight.
lol

Hey, I'm not saying McConnell will lose, I think he's favored heavily.  But Grimes is a far bigger threat than Wehby right now, barring a GOP wave.
SWE was obviously kidding. Larry Sabato who claims to be a "political analyst" has Oregon as likely D which isn't too big of an issue considering Merkley's weaker than Wyden and it's an Obama midterm against a socially moderate Republican, yet he has KY as likely R to which says something about how intelligent Sabato really is. Sabato's trying to say that Merkley has about as good of chance of getting re-elected as McConnell. SWE was mocking him for it (and rightfully so).

And considering how flawed and biased Wenzel is, this KY race is within a point, so it further disproves Sabato's prediction and you're right when you say that Grimes is a much higher quality candidate than the scandal-plagued doctor. Likewise the other way with Merkley being a lot stronger than McConnell. 14 points is obviously enough to call it safe D and a 1-2 point race in KY is enough to call it a tossup/tilt R.

IIRC though Gauss, you're a physics teacher? So as far as I'm concerned, you're a better scientist than Sabato ever will be. Wink

Sabato is probably too optimistic about McConnell, but if I'm not mistaken, his Crystal Ball site isn't measuring races based on the expected margin of victory, rather, he is focusing on how likely it is that a candidate will win in general. He could be justified in saying that both Merkley and McConnell have the same chances of winning. It is probable that neither is at much risking of losing this year.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC