In Arkansas' 2010 Senate race, Rassy's average was Boozman +24 and it really ended up being Boozman +21, so Rassy isn't junk here, but they are off by a few. Marist of course was overestimating Pryor's chances way too much so they're negligible, but PPP did have this at Pryor +1 and TB Pryor +3, so these 3 polls indicate that this is a pure tossup now. Anyone's game, but Pryor's going to really struggle to avoid President Obama for the next 5 months and with Cotton avoiding his polarizing ideology, military service and voting record now and switching it with ads connected to him being a family man who cares about the average Arkansan, Pryor should be worried.
It has long been the case that when landslides get rather big, they get hard to pin down to the point exactly. I recall that being the case with Baucus back in 2008, Hoeven and a couple of others as well.
