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Author Topic: PA: Rasmussen: Wolf (D) eats Gov. Corbett (R) alive  (Read 4005 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 01, 2014, 07:51:54 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Governor by Rasmussen on 2014-05-28

Summary: D: 51%, R: 31%, U: 14%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: June 01, 2014, 07:53:55 am »

"Dominating"

Smiley
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: June 01, 2014, 08:30:31 am »

The "Cook Political Report" still has this race as a "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings

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politicallefty
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« Reply #3 on: June 01, 2014, 08:30:51 am »

Wow, that kind of of margin is really quite insane for an incumbent Governor. If that kind of margin holds up, it'll have to be among the worst defeats. The only really bad loss for an incumbent Governor I can think of was Chet Culver in 2010, which was about a 10% margin. If anyone can come up with some more, I'd be interested to know.
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« Reply #4 on: June 01, 2014, 09:14:59 am »

The "Cook Political Report" still has this race as a "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings

Tongue
I would, too.  Corbett is, after all, an incumbent, and that is an advantage that can't be underestimated.  Nonetheless, I think his goose is probably cooked at this point.  Or should I say, he's been thrown to the "Wolfs." Smiley
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« Reply #5 on: June 01, 2014, 10:19:42 am »

Wow, that kind of of margin is really quite insane for an incumbent Governor. If that kind of margin holds up, it'll have to be among the worst defeats. The only really bad loss for an incumbent Governor I can think of was Chet Culver in 2010, which was about a 10% margin. If anyone can come up with some more, I'd be interested to know.
Another recent one was scandal-plagued Ernie Fletcher who lost his re-election bid in 2007 by 17 points.

But wow. At this point, it's really not even a question as to whether Wolf can beat Corbett and just a matter of whether or not he can break Rendell's 2006 margin with the help of suburbia on Wolf's side. Wolf somehow managed to avoid being ripped apart by Schwartz and McCord, so if Corbett's "tax and spend" strategy doesn't work, he's pretty much done.

Also, given Wolf's ability to self-fund, I hope Shumlin doesn't make the mistake to write Wolf a whole bunch of checks and run ads on his part when Wolf's got that covered and we'll need Shumlin's help elsewhere.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #6 on: June 01, 2014, 01:12:06 pm »

The "Cook Political Report" still has this race as a "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings

Tongue

Just for some context...

Some people who have a smaller lead than Wolf:
Dick Durbin
Pat Roberts
Thad Cochran
Ben Sasse
John Cornyn

Incidentally, all of these races are Solid R/D (except for MS, which I assume is likely in the event that McDaniel wins the primary).
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2014, 03:04:24 pm »

Safe D. Corbett is dead in the water. The best thing he could do is cut down the margin so it isn't a complete wipe out.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2014, 04:14:22 pm »

Corbett is done. Pennsylvania's two-term per party streak will end too.
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Khristie Kreme Donuts
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« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2014, 04:47:44 pm »

I don't doubt it but lol Ras, so I'll wait for PPP this week to confirm or deny (but most likely confirm) these results.
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« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2014, 07:48:46 pm »

I've had this at Leans D since I created my analysis in January of this year and I'm not going to switch it right now (Rasmussen methodology is questionable), but if PPP finds this sort of lead, or even a 15 point lead for Wolf, or perhaps even a 12 point lead for Wolf, I'm moving this to Likely (Strong Lean) D.  Corbett has 5 months to turn things around, so his defeat is not quite certain yet, but if I was a big republican donor, I'd consider this contest worthless and redirect any money meant for northern use into CT, MA, and/or ME.
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« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2014, 08:47:59 pm »

The "Cook Political Report" still has this race as a "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings

Tongue
I would, too.  Corbett is, after all, an incumbent, and that is an advantage that can't be underestimated.  Nonetheless, I think his goose is probably cooked at this point.  Or should I say, he's been thrown to the "Wolfs." Smiley

He is an incumbent with very light accomplishments.  The legislature, both houses of which are Republican, is hostile.

I will agree that he is unlikely to win, but if he started having major legislative victories, that could change things.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2014, 09:12:46 pm »

The "Cook Political Report" still has this race as a "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings

Tongue
I would, too.  Corbett is, after all, an incumbent, and that is an advantage that can't be underestimated.  Nonetheless, I think his goose is probably cooked at this point.  Or should I say, he's been thrown to the "Wolfs." Smiley

Being an incumbent doesn't matter if you're trailing by 20.
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« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2014, 09:50:46 am »

A few years ago Nate Silver had an article in which he stated that elected incumbents (as Governors or Senators) with 44% or higher approval ratings typically win, with those with early approval ratings around 44% have a 50% chance of being re-elected.

Getting elected and keeping a high approval rating are very different achievements.  The typical incumbent who isn't campaigning but is in fact legislating or governing can't please everyone. One will invariably do things that parts of the constituency dislike. Most issues of the time divide around 52-48 because anything with 55% or higher support gets passed.

Campaigning is the difference between winning and losing an election for most incumbents -- most of whose approvals are in the mid-to-high 40s. Campaigning is good for about a 6% increase in the popular vote share from early approvals. Just think -- approval ratings  for President Obama were typically in the high 40's early in 2012... and he got re-elected. He also proved as good a campaigner in 2012 as in 2008.

With Tom Corbett, his approval ratings are so poor that man who voted for him consider their votes for him a mistake. Just too many think him a mistake for him to be re-elected. He could never shake enough hands and praise cherry pies at county fairs to get re-elected.
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2014, 10:17:02 am »

Can anyone summarise why Corbett is so unpopular? All I know is that the Jerry Sandusky case hurt him somehow, but I'm not sure exactly how and why.
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« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2014, 10:52:47 am »

Can anyone summarise why Corbett is so unpopular? All I know is that the Jerry Sandusky case hurt him somehow, but I'm not sure exactly how and why.

That's all I know too.

What has Corbett done to piss everyone off.
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« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2014, 01:25:39 pm »

Can anyone summarise why Corbett is so unpopular? All I know is that the Jerry Sandusky case hurt him somehow, but I'm not sure exactly how and why.

1) The Sandusky case: Many people think Corbett slow-walked the investigation so that it didn't interfere with his gubernatorial run in 2010 (he was Attorney General, and actually a fairly popular one, from 2005-2011). Kathleen Kane took advantage of this by pledging to run a full investigation into it, which is part of why she won by such a huge margin. This might not seem like a big deal to out of staters, but it's pretty huge in PA.
2) Education: Corbett cut education funding drastically. He pretty much eviscerated the public school system, and ended up closing dozens of schools. This pissed off Democrats and independents of course, but even many Republicans, some of whom tend to be more moderate in PA than in other parts of the country.
3) Failed privatization: Corbett tried to privatize both the state lottery system and state liquor system. He failed on both counts, pissing off the left for trying and the right for failing.
4) Social issues: Corbett is infamous for saying women should "just close their eyes" while getting their mandatory transvaginal ultrasound. He also compared gay marriage to incest, and used taxpayer money to appeal the court decision since Kane did not. Despite throwing his lot in with the Pennsyltuckians on this, he then pissed them off as well by not appealing the decision. Many on the right wing blogs are calling him a RINO squish who "caved to the Sodomites".
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« Reply #17 on: June 02, 2014, 02:19:25 pm »

That sounds like a big thrashing.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #18 on: June 02, 2014, 02:25:56 pm »

The "Cook Political Report" still has this race as a "tossup":

http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings

Tongue
I would, too.  Corbett is, after all, an incumbent, and that is an advantage that can't be underestimated.  Nonetheless, I think his goose is probably cooked at this point.  Or should I say, he's been thrown to the "Wolfs." Smiley

Just to provide some perspective, at this point four years ago, Blanche Lincoln was looking at a similar polling deficit.

I seriously doubt anybody considered the Arkansas Senate race a "tossup."
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« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2014, 04:25:29 pm »

Safe D. Corbett is dead in the water. The best thing he could do is cut down the margin so it isn't a complete wipe out.
I would never consider a seat "safe" for a party out of power, because if they don't hold it now, then it's obviously NOT safe for them.  Personally, I rate this as Strong D.
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2014, 04:30:37 pm »

Safe D. Corbett is dead in the water. The best thing he could do is cut down the margin so it isn't a complete wipe out.
I would never consider a seat "safe" for a party out of power, because if they don't hold it now, then it's obviously NOT safe for them.  Personally, I rate this as Strong D.

So this wasn't Safe R?
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« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2014, 06:05:00 pm »

Can anyone summarise why Corbett is so unpopular? All I know is that the Jerry Sandusky case hurt him somehow, but I'm not sure exactly how and why.

1) The Sandusky case: Many people think Corbett slow-walked the investigation so that it didn't interfere with his gubernatorial run in 2010 (he was Attorney General, and actually a fairly popular one, from 2005-2011). Kathleen Kane took advantage of this by pledging to run a full investigation into it, which is part of why she won by such a huge margin. This might not seem like a big deal to out of staters, but it's pretty huge in PA.

I don't get the motives here. Wouldn't it be a big plus for Corbett's gubernatorial campaign to be seen as "cracking down on child molesters"? "Think of the children" is such a successful tactic that I can't imagine anyone intentionally playing against that narrative for electoral reasons.
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« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2014, 08:09:21 pm »

Can anyone summarise why Corbett is so unpopular? All I know is that the Jerry Sandusky case hurt him somehow, but I'm not sure exactly how and why.

1) The Sandusky case: Many people think Corbett slow-walked the investigation so that it didn't interfere with his gubernatorial run in 2010 (he was Attorney General, and actually a fairly popular one, from 2005-2011). Kathleen Kane took advantage of this by pledging to run a full investigation into it, which is part of why she won by such a huge margin. This might not seem like a big deal to out of staters, but it's pretty huge in PA.

I don't get the motives here. Wouldn't it be a big plus for Corbett's gubernatorial campaign to be seen as "cracking down on child molesters"? "Think of the children" is such a successful tactic that I can't imagine anyone intentionally playing against that narrative for electoral reasons.

Some people might not want to be seen as "attacking" Penn State. In Pennsylvania, that's very high risk.
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« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2014, 09:02:42 pm »

When does the Pennsylvania General Assembly's 2014 legislative session end ?
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King
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« Reply #24 on: June 10, 2014, 12:22:51 pm »

Congrats, Phil. Rick Santorum 2006 isn't the worst PA incumbent of all time now.
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