pbrower2a
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Posts: 26,859
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« on: June 02, 2014, 09:50:46 AM » |
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A few years ago Nate Silver had an article in which he stated that elected incumbents (as Governors or Senators) with 44% or higher approval ratings typically win, with those with early approval ratings around 44% have a 50% chance of being re-elected.
Getting elected and keeping a high approval rating are very different achievements. The typical incumbent who isn't campaigning but is in fact legislating or governing can't please everyone. One will invariably do things that parts of the constituency dislike. Most issues of the time divide around 52-48 because anything with 55% or higher support gets passed.
Campaigning is the difference between winning and losing an election for most incumbents -- most of whose approvals are in the mid-to-high 40s. Campaigning is good for about a 6% increase in the popular vote share from early approvals. Just think -- approval ratings for President Obama were typically in the high 40's early in 2012... and he got re-elected. He also proved as good a campaigner in 2012 as in 2008.
With Tom Corbett, his approval ratings are so poor that man who voted for him consider their votes for him a mistake. Just too many think him a mistake for him to be re-elected. He could never shake enough hands and praise cherry pies at county fairs to get re-elected.
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