PA-PPP: Wolf up 25

[RogueBeaver]

55/30 to be exact. Corbett's approval is 27/58.

[Tender Branson]

Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Governor
Tom Corbett’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 27%
Disapprove...................................................... 58%
Not sure .......................................................... 15%

Q3 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Wolf?

Favorable........................................................ 47%
Unfavorable .................................................... 20%
Not sure .......................................................... 33%

...

Pretty much explains everything.

[JRP1994]

"Leans Dem" - Larry Sabato

[Tender Branson]

"Leans Dem" - Larry Sabato

Cook Political Report even has it as a "Toss-up" still:

http://cookpolitical.com/governor/charts/race-ratings

Hilarious(ly) wrong.

[RogueBeaver]

Q for Pennsylvanians: why didn't the party tap him on the shoulder? This is a Blanching.

[Lief 🗽]

Whoa, I thought the Rasmussen poll was just being ridiculous. This is a crazy margin.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Whoa, I thought the Rasmussen poll was just being ridiculous. This is a crazy margin.

Corbett is just that horrible.

In addition, Wolf is the first gubernatorial nominee in a while from either party to not come from either the Philly or Pittsburgh metros (he's from York County); Wolf is a household name and he's probably doing far better in Central Pennsylvania in particular.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Keep in mind that professional political prognosticators often don't change the rating the same day new polling data is released.  If this results in a rating change (i.e. Cook and CNN moving it out of Toss-Up), such change may not happen until 3 or 4 days from now. Prognasticators have other commitments, and typically each site is a team effort, not a solo thing, so it takes time to get opinions from the whole team on whether a rating change is merited or not.

Fortunately or Unfortunately, I don't need that amount of time. Both the Rasmussen Poll and the PPP poll find an even greater advantage for Wolf than Quinnipiac found back in February (Quinnipiac found a 19 point advantage), and while Corbett is an incumbent, that doesn't matter when you only have a 27% approval rating and you're a republican in a purple-blue state. It's time to upgrade Wolf's chances.

PA-Gov: Rating Changed from 'Leaning Democratic' to 'Strongly Leaning Democratic'.

If Corbett's still trailing by this much in Mid-July, I'll be moving this to Safe D, but for now, he still has 5 months to turn things around, so Strong Lean sounds good for right now.

[Skill and Chance]

Most important question of the day: If Wolf wins by 20%+ and gives Dems a trifecta in PA next year, can they legally redraw the congressional map?

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Most important question of the day: If Wolf wins by 20%+ and gives Dems a trifecta in PA next year, can they legally redraw the congressional map?

Not until the census is taken again in 2020.

[Maxwell]

Here's a question, what kind of democrat would vote for Tom Corbett? While Wolf takes 24% of Republicans, Corbett takes 10% of Democrats.

[publicunofficial]

Here's a question, what kind of democrat would vote for Tom Corbett? While Wolf takes 24% of Republicans, Corbett takes 10% of Democrats.

There's a certain type of voter who always votes for whoever is currently in charge.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Here's a question, what kind of democrat would vote for Tom Corbett? While Wolf takes 24% of Republicans, Corbett takes 10% of Democrats.

"Bitter" people from the Appalachian region.

[free my dawg]

Most important question of the day: If Wolf wins by 20%+ and gives Dems a trifecta in PA next year, can they legally redraw the congressional map?

Not until the census is taken again in 2020.

Actually, the PA Constitution doesn't prevent mid-decade redistricting.

[IceSpear]

Q for Pennsylvanians: why didn't the party tap him on the shoulder? This is a Blanching.

They did.

However, when Corbett decided to stick it out, all of the potential challengers were too scared of blowback and a probable loss. Despite Corbett's deep unpopularity, he still would've been the favorite to get 50% +1 in a Republican primary.

Also this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[SWE]

Here's a question, what kind of democrat would vote for Tom Corbett? While Wolf takes 24% of Republicans, Corbett takes 10% of Democrats.

WalterMitty

[henster]

Here's a question, what kind of democrat would vote for Tom Corbett? While Wolf takes 24% of Republicans, Corbett takes 10% of Democrats.

Probably just statistical noise I'd expect Wolf to take 95-97% of Dems in the end Corbett may not get any at all.

[Gass3268]

What type of county map are we looking at with these numbers?

[IceSpear]

What type of county map are we looking at with these numbers?

Something similar to these:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania_gubernatorial_election,_2006
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Pennsylvania,_2006

[greenforest32]

RE: trifecta

Didn't the 2012 state legislative elections in PA take place under the old maps? 2014 is supposedly the first election for the state legislature that takes place under the new ones if I'm reading this correctly: http://paindependent.com/2013/05/supreme-court-pa-house-senate-districts-to-stand/

Any idea how the new districts compare?

[JerryArkansas]

What type of county map are we looking at with these numbers?

About like this.

[Maxwell]

Santorum, to his credit, was never this far behind. Wolf could cross 60.

[Lief 🗽]

What's the most an incumbent governor has ever lost by?

[RogueBeaver]

RI 1990: GOP incumbent Ed DiPrete was crushed 74/26, not a typo. Primary: smaller margin but Frank Murkowski got only 19% in the AK-GOV Pub primary where Palin crushed him 51/19.

[Miles]

^ Jerry is probably about right. This is what a clean 60/40 Wolf win would look like going strictly on a uniform swing from 2010.



Not perfect, as it disregards partisan floors in some counties (getting >3% in Philly county isn't realistic), but this is theoretically what a uniform would look like.