California party registration maps

[muon2]

CA-21 was probably my biggest surprise overall. President Obama did win the seat quite comfortably and Democrats did have a poor candidate in 2012, but I was surprised to see how strong a partisan advantage Democrats have in that seat. Currently, CA-21 stands at 45.5%-31.3% (+14.2%). It may very well be the case that Democrats have a tendency to underpeform in the Central Valley, but that sort of margin is very surprising. With presidential turnout, that's the kind of seat that should be a top target.

CA-21 is likely intended as a Hispanic opportunity district, based on the hook into Bakersfield and linking Fresno and Bakersfield.  In addition the western part of the valley is more pure agriculture and therefore more Hispanic.  Hispanics will vote for a Democrat, but they won't get excited about a black president.   A representative of Portuguese descent may draw some Hispanic votes.

And Hispanic turnout is generally much lower.  Los Angeles County is around 13% turnout in the primary, and I found a precinct in Bell Gardens at under 2%.

Yes, CD 21 is a Section 5 VRA district with a Latino CVAP of 49.26%. Here's what the Commission wrote in its final report:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Without a strong Latino turnout, one would expect the district to vote much the way of its neighbors in the Central Valley.