Abortion Policy after Roe v. Wade

[Person Man]

If a Republican won in 2016, Ginsburg died or retired in 2017-2018 and a Republican state passed an abortion ban in 2016-2017 and the new Conservative Majority upheld the abortion ban in 2019-2020, what would the state/national policies on abortion look like and what would some of those policies be? Discuss with maps.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Didn't this basically already happen?  Maybe that's a bad example because the law in question wasn't a full-blown abortion ban, but I don't think things would be very different than they are now.  At least, if Romney were to appoint a replacement for Ginsburg and had to work with a Democratic Senate, he'd probably be very cautious of who he was going to appoint.  Being the president that appointed the judge that would be responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade probably isn't something you'd want to run for reelection on - not when the abortion issue is as divisive as it is.

But, if Roe were overturned, any and all current state bans would automatically go into effect.  Vermont, Arkansas, and Louisiana are, I believe, a few of the states that do have such bans.  Of course, Vermont's legislature would gather to repeal that ban and Shumlin would sign it in the blink of an eye.  Abortion would become one of the top issues in state politics and voters, especially liberals, would pay more attention to local elections.  That last one is a guess, though.

[Person Man]

Is there a possibility that overturning Roe could cause pro-choicers to give up in the several years subsequent?

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Is there a possibility that overturning Roe could cause pro-choicers to give up in the several years subsequent?

No.  I don't think there's a single developed country where abortion policy is not met with opposition one way or another.  (I mean, I could be completely wrong, but even staunchly Catholic, anti-abortion Poland has a respectable pro-choice group numbers-wise.)  This isn't like gay marriage.

[Person Man]

Is there a possibility that overturning Roe could cause pro-choicers to give up in the several years subsequent?

No.  I don't think there's a single developed country where abortion policy is not met with opposition one way or another.  (I mean, I could be completely wrong, but even staunchly Catholic, anti-abortion Poland has a respectable pro-choice group numbers-wise.)  This isn't like gay marriage.

Even Ireland, for that matter. Does Denmark have a strong anti-abortion community?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Is there a possibility that overturning Roe could cause pro-choicers to give up in the several years subsequent?

If anything, it would reënergize the pro-choice movement and the Democratic Party.  The status quo imposed by the court favors the pro-choice position which means the pro-lifers are far more energized.  Right now, the abortion issue is largely one that matters only in primaries.  We so seldom have a pro-choice Republican contesting an election with a pro-life Democrat, that in a general election those for whom abortion matters will mostly vote for the general position for which the two parties stand if the two candidates are indistinguishable while for those for abortion is a lesser issue or not an issue, they'll decide based on other issues.  Since I expect the pro-life movement to overplay its hand if Roe is overturned, there will be a political backlash from a previously uninvolved middle that was content with the level of protection abortion had from the courts, but would make abortion access an issue they would base their vote once that protection was gone. That said, in most states, the efforts of pro-choicers after the overturning of Roe will have to be centered primarily on ensuring continued access to first trimester abortions rather than the fairly broad access to second trimester abortion that has been generally been available in the US since 1973.  But those efforts I think will be beneficial to the Democrats at the expense of the Republicans overall.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Is there a possibility that overturning Roe could cause pro-choicers to give up in the several years subsequent?

No.  I don't think there's a single developed country where abortion policy is not met with opposition one way or another.  (I mean, I could be completely wrong, but even staunchly Catholic, anti-abortion Poland has a respectable pro-choice group numbers-wise.)  This isn't like gay marriage.

Even Ireland, for that matter. Does Denmark have a strong anti-abortion community?

I'm not sure about Denmark, actually.  Denmark is not a Catholic country and is far to the left economically, so if I had to guess I'd say it probably doesn't, but there are always exceptions to a rule and that might be one of them.  But, I don't know much about Denmark, to be completely honest.  Politicus could shed some light on that.

Is there a possibility that overturning Roe could cause pro-choicers to give up in the several years subsequent?

If anything, it would reënergize the pro-choice movement and the Democratic Party.  The status quo imposed by the court favors the pro-choice position which means the pro-lifers are far more energized.  Right now, the abortion issue is largely one that matters only in primaries.  We so seldom have a pro-choice Republican contesting an election with a pro-life Democrat, that in a general election those for whom abortion matters will mostly vote for the general position for which the two parties stand if the two candidates are indistinguishable while for those for abortion is a lesser issue or not an issue, they'll decide based on other issues.  Since I expect the pro-life movement to overplay its hand if Roe is overturned, there will be a political backlash from a previously uninvolved middle that was content with the level of protection abortion had from the courts, but would make abortion access an issue they would base their vote once that protection was gone. That said, in most states, the efforts of pro-choicers after the overturning of Roe will have to be centered primarily on ensuring continued access to first trimester abortions rather than the fairly broad access to second trimester abortion that has been generally been available in the US since 1973.  But those efforts I think will be beneficial to the Democrats at the expense of the Republicans overall.

Yup, this is probably accurate.  You're not as likely to fight on an issue that you believe is "won" and "settled," even when there are facts that run contrary to that belief.  The side that's against the status quo, generally speaking, will be more mobilized than the side that's for it.

[politicus]

Is there a possibility that overturning Roe could cause pro-choicers to give up in the several years subsequent?

No.  I don't think there's a single developed country where abortion policy is not met with opposition one way or another.  (I mean, I could be completely wrong, but even staunchly Catholic, anti-abortion Poland has a respectable pro-choice group numbers-wise.)  This isn't like gay marriage.

Even Ireland, for that matter. Does Denmark have a strong anti-abortion community?

No. In Scandinavian countries the issue is considered settled, since the pro-choice share is 90%+. Christian Democrats and church groups focus on reducing the number of actual abortions by improving conditions for young mothers and giving better information about support opportunities. Norway has the strongest anti-abortion sentiment.