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  Difference of white vote and actual vote
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Author Topic: Difference of white vote and actual vote  (Read 3628 times)
ElectionsGuy
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« on: June 07, 2014, 10:38:42 pm »

For this, I subtracted the white republican vote to the actual republican vote. For example, Indiana: 60-54 = 6. Unfortunately, 2012 didn't exit poll 19 states (including relevant states like Texas and Georgia) and DC. So I could only do the other 31. Mississippi was the highest at 34, and Maine was bizarrely -1 (but its close to 0 anyway). Of course, a lot of this depends on the % of electorate that is white, what other non-whites are voting (all Hispanics vs. all blacks makes a big difference), and so on, so a good correlation map could be made in the future.



Key:

>30% = 0-4% difference
>40% = 5-9% difference
>50% = 10-14% difference
>60% = 15-19% difference
>70% = 20-24% difference
>80% = 25-29% difference
>90% = 30-34% difference

Numbers:

AL: 84-61 = 23
AZ: 66-54 = 12
CA: 53-37 = 16
CO: 54-46 = 8
CT: 48-41 = 7
FL: 61-49 = 12
IL: 52-41 = 11
IN: 60-54 = 6
IA: 47-46 = 1
KS: 64-60 = 4
ME: 40-41 = -1
MD: 55-36 = 19
MA: 42-37 = 5
MI: 55-45 = 10
MN: 49-45 = 4
MS: 89-55 = 34
MO: 65-54 = 11
MT: 59-55 = 4
NV: 56-46 = 10
NH: 47-46 = 1
NJ: 56-41 = 15
NM: 56-43 = 13
NY: 49-36 = 13
NC: 68-50 = 18
OH: 57-48 = 9
OR: 44-42 = 2
PA: 57-47 = 10
VT: 33-31 = 2
VA: 61-47 = 14
WA: 46-41 = 5
WI: 51-46 = 5
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mathstatman
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« Reply #1 on: February 13, 2016, 07:51:52 pm »

It is striking how monolithic the white vote still is in MS and AL.
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hopper
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2016, 03:15:52 am »

NM was the of the average of "The Republican Vote vs  rest of the Nation" with a 13 point difference. Yeah the Republican Vote in MS and AL is way too much vs the states overall Republican Vote.
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2016, 10:00:19 am »

FYI (I used your numbers for the states you already had listed)



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nclib
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« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2016, 10:57:32 am »

What were the numbers for the lowest difference states?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2016, 11:29:11 am »

Why are SC whites the most democratic in the deep south? I thought SC was the most hardline pro-slavery/pro-confederate state, the solidest of the solid south, and turned Republican comparatively quickly in the modern era.
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Bismarck
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« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2016, 11:38:29 am »

If the GOP could find some way to increase their vote with upper Midwestern whites they would have a much easier time winning the presidency.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2016, 02:46:48 pm »

Why are SC whites the most democratic in the deep south? I thought SC was the most hardline pro-slavery/pro-confederate state, the solidest of the solid south, and turned Republican comparatively quickly in the modern era.

More northern transplants than AL, MS, & LA.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2016, 02:54:44 pm »

Why are SC whites the most democratic in the deep south? I thought SC was the most hardline pro-slavery/pro-confederate state, the solidest of the solid south, and turned Republican comparatively quickly in the modern era.

Not seeing what those facts have to do with how Republican a state should be.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2016, 03:10:00 pm »

Why are SC whites the most democratic in the deep south? I thought SC was the most hardline pro-slavery/pro-confederate state, the solidest of the solid south, and turned Republican comparatively quickly in the modern era.

Not seeing what those facts have to do with how Republican a state should be.
Certainly correlates to how republican the white population is.

It is surprising that SC whites are more dem than GA and TX, which are more urban. Even Louisiana could be expected to have more liberal whites, but that's not the case.
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nclib
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« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2016, 03:51:42 pm »

It's interesting how SC whites are more Dem than GA whites, since the latter has an area (Atlanta) with a far greater population of liberal whites, and no equivalent in SC. The same could be said for LA (New Orleans) though LA's non-Cajun whites are among the most conservative anywhere in the US, and the Cajun whites are strongly trending Republican.
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LLR
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2016, 05:51:08 pm »

Iowa always confused me, but I guess when a state leans D and is 98% white, that's what happens.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2016, 06:09:46 pm »

West Virginia whites are more Democratic than North Carolina whites.  Kind of interesting when you think about it, considering that Obama almost carried the latter state in 2012 (and actually carried it in 2008).
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President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2016, 10:52:49 pm »
« Edited: May 30, 2016, 11:09:26 pm by President Griffin »

Why are SC whites the most democratic in the deep south? I thought SC was the most hardline pro-slavery/pro-confederate state, the solidest of the solid south, and turned Republican comparatively quickly in the modern era.

A combination of latitude and the percentage of the black vote in a state seem to be a factor. There are two distinct drop-off points as you head into the Deep South: the first is very clearly seen running somewhat along 35 degrees N (the TN/GA/AL/MS border, stretching to a lesser extent between AR/LA border and TX/OK border), and the second is along what we call in Georgia "the Fall Line" (roughly where the Black Belt runs).

As you move into the (really) Deep South, whites become increasingly Republican. When you cross the 35th parallel heading south, whites go from voting 70% Republican or so to around 80% Republican. Where the "Fall Line" (the rapid drop-off in elevation) occurs is where whites start voting much more uniformly at 85-90% Republican or more. The elevation itself probably isn't significant, but is rather a reflection of where the Black Belt/slavery/agriculturally-optimal soil exist(ed).

There is evidence to suggest that the larger the number of blacks in a given area (excluding urban areas), the more Republican white voters tend to be. I've observed that there is a bell curve of sorts to this, though; once a rural area becomes significantly black (somewhere between 35% to 45%), the whites tend to move back in the opposite direction. You can actually see parts of the Black Belt due to whites being more Democratic in my county white vote map linked above, and I'm confident of this broader trend across the Deep South because Georgia releases turnout figures for counties/precincts by race.

However, this alone doesn't necessarily explain why areas further south of the Black Belt (which tend to be substantially whiter as a whole than the Black Belt) are as Republican or even more so than areas with, say, 20-30% black populations a bit further north.

If you look at SC, it is further north as a whole than the other Deep South states. If you were to draw a line from southern South Carolina east to west across Georgia and then analyze the white vote in the state north of that, then it'd be comparable to SC. The same is true to a lesser extent for MS & AL.
  
Why are SC whites the most democratic in the deep south? I thought SC was the most hardline pro-slavery/pro-confederate state, the solidest of the solid south, and turned Republican comparatively quickly in the modern era.

More northern transplants than AL, MS, & LA.

I agree on that part. For me, what is surprising is SC > GA and TX, unless that's close enough to be a statistical quirk?

I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain that multiple elections with exit polling have shown SC whites - while in the margin of error technically - to be consistently 2-4 points more Democratic than GA whites. The map posted above was part of my 2012 county white vote project and I calculated these figures using a variety of data-points.  
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Harrytruman48
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« Reply #14 on: August 08, 2016, 03:05:27 am »

West Virginia whites are more Democratic than North Carolina whites.  Kind of interesting when you think about it, considering that Obama almost carried the latter state in 2012 (and actually carried it in 2008).

Because North Carolina has a huge Black population, so he didn't need to get that much of the white vote.
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