Why are SC whites the most democratic in the deep south? I thought SC was the most hardline pro-slavery/pro-confederate state, the solidest of the solid south, and turned Republican comparatively quickly in the modern era.
and the
percentage of the black vote in a state seem to be a factor. There are two distinct drop-off points as you head into the Deep South: the first is very clearly seen running somewhat along 35 degrees N (the TN/GA/AL/MS border, stretching to a lesser extent between AR/LA border and TX/OK border), and the second is along what we call in Georgia "the Fall Line" (roughly where the Black Belt runs).
As you move into the (really) Deep South, whites become increasingly Republican.
When you cross the 35th parallel heading south, whites go from voting 70% Republican or so to around 80% Republican. Where the "Fall Line" (the rapid drop-off in elevation) occurs is where whites start voting much more uniformly at 85-90% Republican or more. The elevation itself probably isn't significant, but is rather a reflection of where the Black Belt/slavery/agriculturally-optimal soil exist(ed).
There is evidence to suggest that the larger the number of blacks in a given area (excluding urban areas), the more Republican white voters tend to be. I've observed that there is a bell curve of sorts to this, though; once a rural area becomes significantly black (somewhere between 35% to 45%), the whites tend to move back in the opposite direction. You can actually see parts of the Black Belt due to whites being more Democratic in my county white vote map linked above, and I'm confident of this broader trend across the Deep South because Georgia releases turnout figures for counties/precincts by race.
However, this alone doesn't necessarily explain why areas further south of the Black Belt (which tend to be substantially whiter as a whole than the Black Belt) are as Republican or even more so than areas with, say, 20-30% black populations a bit further north.
If you look at SC, it is further north as a whole than the other Deep South states. If you were to draw a line from southern South Carolina east to west across Georgia and then analyze the white vote in the state north of that, then it'd be comparable to SC. The same is true to a lesser extent for MS & AL.
Why are SC whites the most democratic in the deep south? I thought SC was the most hardline pro-slavery/pro-confederate state, the solidest of the solid south, and turned Republican comparatively quickly in the modern era.
More northern transplants than AL, MS, & LA.
I agree on that part. For me, what is surprising is SC > GA and TX, unless that's close enough to be a statistical quirk?
I could be wrong, but I'm fairly certain that multiple elections with exit polling have shown SC whites - while in the margin of error technically - to be consistently 2-4 points more Democratic than GA whites. The map posted above was part of my 2012 county white vote project and I calculated these figures using a variety of data-points.
