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  FL-SurveyUSA: Hillary Clinton up 6 against Bush, Biden down 9
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Author Topic: FL-SurveyUSA: Hillary Clinton up 6 against Bush, Biden down 9  (Read 1194 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: June 11, 2014, 02:51:53 am »

850 registered FL voters:





Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 950 state of Florida adults 06/05/14 through 06/10/14. Of the adults, 850 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 556 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/04/14 general election, and were asked the Crist-Scott questions.

The 2016 hypotheticals were asked of all 850 registered voters. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (75% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (25% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their tablet, smartphone or other electronic device.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c26d7d89-bbeb-4187-88bb-2af781228258
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: June 11, 2014, 02:53:40 am »

Hillary wins Indies by 7, Biden trails by 18 ...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2014, 03:07:38 am »

Bush vs. Clinton by race:

white: Bush +3%
black: Clinton +61%
Asian: Bush +1%
Cuban: Clinton +15%
non-Cuban Hispanic: Clinton +21%

Bush vs. Biden by race:

white: Bush +20%
black: Biden +71%
Asian: Bush +24%
Cuban: Bush +6%
non-Cuban Hispanic: Biden +12%
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JRP1994
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« Reply #3 on: June 11, 2014, 02:44:07 pm »

This is an absolute embarrassment for Biden
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Communist Is Not An Insult
ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #4 on: June 11, 2014, 02:46:50 pm »

Bush vs. Clinton by race:

black: Clinton +61%


Bush vs. Biden by race:

black: Biden +71%



Bitter.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2014, 03:00:17 pm »

This is an absolute embarrassment for Biden

Yet another hole in the "Hillary only seems most electable because of name recognition" talking point.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: June 11, 2014, 06:06:27 pm »

Bush vs. Clinton by race:

black: Clinton +61%


Bush vs. Biden by race:

black: Biden +71%



Bitter.

Incidentally, PPP's latest Pennsylvania poll also showed Biden overperforming among blacks in the primary.  Still way behind Clinton, including among blacks, but Biden was at 14% among blacks and 7% among whites.  This is definitely something I'll look for in future polls.
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Never
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« Reply #7 on: June 11, 2014, 08:36:29 pm »

This shows that Hillary is a particularly strong option (considering Obama won Florida by less than a point in 2012, and Jeb Bush was a Florida politician), and Biden is weak all-around. People do not fall behind in swing states like Florida by nearly double-digits and still win nationally.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2014, 01:19:40 am »

Yeah, I think its been noted before that Biden is the only Democrat who matches Hillary in terms of name recognition so his deficit against her and generally poor poll numbers is real (not to mention embarrassing).  Other Democrats could at least plausibly claim that they have "room to grow" due to a lack of name recognition.
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RR1997
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« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2014, 06:00:56 am »

Bush vs. Clinton by race:

Asian: Bush +1%

Bush vs. Biden by race:

Asian: Bush +24%




Bush seems to do surprisingly well with Asians in Flordia.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2014, 09:41:31 am »

Bush vs. Clinton by race:

Asian: Bush +1%

Bush vs. Biden by race:

Asian: Bush +24%

Bush seems to do surprisingly well with Asians in Flordia.

I wouldn't put too much faith into very small crosstabs like "Asians in Florida".

"Asian/Others" only make up 7% of the sample of 850 RV (which means only 60 or so people).
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TDAS04
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« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2014, 01:37:49 pm »
« Edited: June 12, 2014, 01:45:05 pm by TDAS04 »

Bush vs. Clinton by race:

white: Bush +3%
black: Clinton +61%
Asian: Bush +1%
Cuban: Clinton +15%
non-Cuban Hispanic: Clinton +21%

Bush vs. Biden by race:

white: Bush +20%
black: Biden +71%
Asian: Bush +24%
Cuban: Bush +6%
non-Cuban Hispanic: Biden +12%


Interesting, Biden outperforms Clinton among blacks.
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morgieb
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« Reply #12 on: June 13, 2014, 07:00:45 pm »

Bush vs. Clinton by race:

white: Bush +3%
black: Clinton +61%
Asian: Bush +1%
Cuban: Clinton +15%
non-Cuban Hispanic: Clinton +21%

Bush vs. Biden by race:

white: Bush +20%
black: Biden +71%
Asian: Bush +24%
Cuban: Bush +6%
non-Cuban Hispanic: Biden +12%


Interesting, Biden outperforms Clinton among blacks.
Probably statistical noise. MOE would be pretty high wrt crosstabs.

Might also be some residual bitterness among Hillary in 08.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: June 13, 2014, 07:17:25 pm »

Might also be some residual bitterness among Hillary in 08.

Or just goodwill towards Biden for being Obama's VP.
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