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  Which states woud become Libertarian?
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Author Topic: Which states woud become Libertarian?  (Read 4943 times)
Free Bird
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« on: June 15, 2014, 11:07:19 pm »

Let's say that the Libertarian Party got a huge boost, and suddenly we had a three-party system instead of two. The candidates are allowed in the debates, and the polling shows it to be a three-way almost even split and anyone's game a-la early Perot. Which previously red/blue states would vote for the Libertarian candidate instead of the Dem/Rep? I would imagine quite a few, maybe even enough to win since it would be so competitive and split. Obviously no one in this or any future elections would break 50%, and obviously New Hampshire would vote for that candidate. But which other states? Maps are encouraged!
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Reluctant Berniebro
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« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2014, 11:29:15 pm »



82 EVs worth, but it's hard to see them expanding much beyond this.
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Never
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« Reply #2 on: June 15, 2014, 11:41:30 pm »

Perhaps states out West like Wyoming, Colorado, and Alaska would go Libertarian first. States like that have an independent streak to begin with. I'm sure some Northeastern states like New Hampshire and Maine would be within reach for the Libertarians.

Here is my map (using Independent "green" for Libertarian):



Democrats: 235 electoral votes
Republicans: 181 electoral votes
Libertarians: 122 electoral votes

I understand this scenario to be the first presidential election in which the Libertarians get a boost. They might not win on their first try, but they could very well win their next election in the national spotlight by building on their relatively successful showing as a third-party.

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Free Bird
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« Reply #3 on: June 15, 2014, 11:56:19 pm »

Perhaps states out West like Wyoming, Colorado, and Alaska would go Libertarian first. States like that have an independent streak to begin with. I'm sure some Northeastern states like New Hampshire and Maine would be within reach for the Libertarians.

Here is my map (using Independent "green" for Libertarian):



Democrats: 235 electoral votes
Republicans: 181 electoral votes
Libertarians: 122 electoral votes

I understand this scenario to be the first presidential election in which the Libertarians get a boost. They might not win on their first try, but they could very well win their next election in the national spotlight by building on their relatively successful showing as a third-party.



In this case, it would need a runoff.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #4 on: June 16, 2014, 12:11:53 am »



Delaware is odd, but it has a lot of Libertarian tendencies. Low incorporation taxes, no sales tax, etc. Same with Oregon, Montana, and Alaska. Libertarians like Mary Jane, so Washington and Colorado. Minnesota and Iowa are rather politically schizophrenic, so they will go. States with heavy Latino populations will break in droves due to the Libertarians' open-border policies.

Leads to typical D/R runoff due to no majority.
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« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2014, 12:31:41 am »

Perhaps states out West like Wyoming, Colorado, and Alaska would go Libertarian first. States like that have an independent streak to begin with. I'm sure some Northeastern states like New Hampshire and Maine would be within reach for the Libertarians.

Here is my map (using Independent "green" for Libertarian):



Democrats: 235 electoral votes
Republicans: 181 electoral votes
Libertarians: 122 electoral votes

I understand this scenario to be the first presidential election in which the Libertarians get a boost. They might not win on their first try, but they could very well win their next election in the national spotlight by building on their relatively successful showing as a third-party.



In this case, it would need a runoff.

Indeed, it would be sent to the House of Representatives, but if the Libertarians are just becoming major players, it is unlikely that they will have a House majority.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2014, 01:13:36 am »
« Edited: June 16, 2014, 01:21:13 am by Wulfric »

Let's start with this map, which colors each state, D.C., and each congressional district in Maine and Nebraska in varying shades of green based on how well Gary Johnson performed there in 2012. 8 jurdisictions (state, district, congressional district) are assigned to each shade from 30% to 90%. The darker the shade, the more libertarian the state is, and the likelier it is to be won by a libertarian candidate:



Obviously, this map isn't perfect, as it overestimates NM (Johnson's Home State), and underestimates MI (where Johnson was only a write-in candidate) and OK (where you couldn't even vote for Johnson), but it's still pretty good.

The next three maps show different scenarios for the libertarian, and are meant to show how their electoral map would grow as their support gets higher and higher.

 In each map, states the libertarian wins are shown in blue, using the exact same margin shading they had on the first map.

The states the libertarian DOES NOT win are colored in the exact same shade of green they were colored in on the first map.


Scenario 1 - "We finally won some electoral votes!" (Libertarian wins only the states that had 90% shading on the first map):


Libertarian Electoral Votes - 37

Scenario 2 - "The Libertarian Support Rises Some More" (Libertarian wins the jursdictions that had 80% or 90% shading on the first map)



Libertarian Electoral Votes - 73

Scenario 3 - "The Probable Libertarian Peak" (Libertarian wins the jursidictions that had 60%, 70%, 80%, or 90% shading on the first map)



Libertarian Electoral Votes - 265

As you can see, getting a libertarian into the white house is VERY difficult. To do it, the libertarian would not only have to run the table with the 60%, 70%, 80%, and 90% jurisdictions, but would also have to win in NC (which was Johnson's best state among the states in the 50% shading). Perhaps a better goal would be to throw the election into the U.S. Congress.

Here's a hypothetical election being thrown into the U.S. Congress, with the libertarian achieving the minimum performance needed to do this. (all of the 70%, 80%, and 90% jurisdictions, plus Johnson's "best half" of the 60% states) and all other states voting as they did in 2012. Red is Democrat, Blue is Republican, Green is Libertarian. (note that this map does not attempt to make predictions on the margin each state will be carried by):



Democrat - 268
Libertarian - 154
Republican - 116

Note: While this is the minimum libertarian performance under a uniform swing system, if you take away the 'uniform swing constraint', you can give all the green romney 2012 states back to the republicans and still get an election being thrown into the U.S. Congress.

So, in Conclusion, even if the libertarians do have a major boost, getting them to the white house is still very difficult, and even throwing the election into the united states congress would be a significant accomplishment, unless Republicans are improving their electoral performance at the same time.






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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2014, 12:32:09 pm »

Not very many, if anything it will be a weak third party like Perot 1992, only having the possibility of winning a few states like NH, WY, AK, CO, AZ, etc. To be honest the L party is too extreme to have real political power.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #8 on: June 16, 2014, 06:56:54 pm »

Not very many, if anything it will be a weak third party like Perot 1992, only having the possibility of winning a few states like NH, WY, AK, CO, AZ, etc. To be honest the L party is too extreme to have real political power.

So you're saying it should become a philosophy, a faction of one of the parties, like Rand Paul is doing, instead of being their own party?
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2014, 07:17:58 pm »

Not very many, if anything it will be a weak third party like Perot 1992, only having the possibility of winning a few states like NH, WY, AK, CO, AZ, etc. To be honest the L party is too extreme to have real political power.

So you're saying it should become a philosophy, a faction of one of the parties, like Rand Paul is doing, instead of being their own party?

Oh no, I'm not saying it shouldn't be a powerful party, if I got what I wanted I would like it to become the dominant party in American politics. I'm just being realistic in that most people aren't libertarians, and most people don't hold positions like getting rid of the income tax, or the  fed, or the IRS, etc. (I do). It would likely be a influential third party at best, under our FPTP (first past the post) system. We would need proportional representation for the libertarian party to have real power.
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RR1997
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« Reply #10 on: June 16, 2014, 07:18:34 pm »

This is how a Gary Johnson win would've looked like in 2012 if he got that much of a swing in the popular vote:



Gary Johnson: 273 EV's
Barack Obama: 187 EV's
Mitt Romney: 78 EV's
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excelsus
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« Reply #11 on: June 23, 2014, 06:01:14 pm »



dark yellow: states that have a relatively high chance of voting Libertarian

pale yellow: states that won't vote Libertarian, but would give them a good result
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excelsus
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« Reply #12 on: June 23, 2014, 06:23:33 pm »

Here are Gary Johnson's results:



The Libertarian bellwether was North Carolina with 0.99% of the vote.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: June 23, 2014, 08:43:02 pm »

If this happened it might actually be the death knell for the Republicans. I can't see democrats losing in this scenario.

Libertarian vote isn't republican leaning, like you seem to assume. Most polling in races suggests that libertarians actually gather equal support for both the D and R if he/she wasn't in the race.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #14 on: June 23, 2014, 09:04:04 pm »

If this happened it might actually be the death knell for the Republicans. I can't see democrats losing in this scenario.

Libertarian vote isn't republican leaning, like you seem to assume. Most polling in races suggests that libertarians actually gather equal support for both the D and R if he/she wasn't in the race.

It would be really interesting to see it broken down by state which party the Libertarian vote takes more votes from. My guess would be that the Libertarians take more votes from the Democrats on the coasts and more from the Republicans elsewhere, but who knows?
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« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2014, 09:23:11 am »

D vs L:




L vs R:

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MyRescueKittehRocks
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« Reply #16 on: June 29, 2014, 12:00:13 pm »

At least folk notice how well Libertarians are doing in Indiana.
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