Which states woud become Libertarian? (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 26, 2024, 02:30:37 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 100% pro-life no matter what)
  Which states woud become Libertarian? (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Which states woud become Libertarian?  (Read 6371 times)
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« on: June 15, 2014, 11:07:19 PM »

Let's say that the Libertarian Party got a huge boost, and suddenly we had a three-party system instead of two. The candidates are allowed in the debates, and the polling shows it to be a three-way almost even split and anyone's game a-la early Perot. Which previously red/blue states would vote for the Libertarian candidate instead of the Dem/Rep? I would imagine quite a few, maybe even enough to win since it would be so competitive and split. Obviously no one in this or any future elections would break 50%, and obviously New Hampshire would vote for that candidate. But which other states? Maps are encouraged!
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #1 on: June 15, 2014, 11:56:19 PM »

Perhaps states out West like Wyoming, Colorado, and Alaska would go Libertarian first. States like that have an independent streak to begin with. I'm sure some Northeastern states like New Hampshire and Maine would be within reach for the Libertarians.

Here is my map (using Independent "green" for Libertarian):



Democrats: 235 electoral votes
Republicans: 181 electoral votes
Libertarians: 122 electoral votes

I understand this scenario to be the first presidential election in which the Libertarians get a boost. They might not win on their first try, but they could very well win their next election in the national spotlight by building on their relatively successful showing as a third-party.



In this case, it would need a runoff.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #2 on: June 16, 2014, 12:11:53 AM »



Delaware is odd, but it has a lot of Libertarian tendencies. Low incorporation taxes, no sales tax, etc. Same with Oregon, Montana, and Alaska. Libertarians like Mary Jane, so Washington and Colorado. Minnesota and Iowa are rather politically schizophrenic, so they will go. States with heavy Latino populations will break in droves due to the Libertarians' open-border policies.

Leads to typical D/R runoff due to no majority.
Logged
Free Bird
TheHawk
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,917
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.84, S: -5.48

« Reply #3 on: June 16, 2014, 06:56:54 PM »

Not very many, if anything it will be a weak third party like Perot 1992, only having the possibility of winning a few states like NH, WY, AK, CO, AZ, etc. To be honest the L party is too extreme to have real political power.

So you're saying it should become a philosophy, a faction of one of the parties, like Rand Paul is doing, instead of being their own party?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.023 seconds with 12 queries.