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  Past Election What-ifs (US) (Moderators: Stuck with Sanders, Apocrypha)
  2004: What if evangelical vote was the same percent in 04 as in 00?
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Author Topic: 2004: What if evangelical vote was the same percent in 04 as in 00?  (Read 5746 times)
chris allen
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« on: April 01, 2005, 07:23:44 pm »

We're all aware that the evangelical born again vote is what gave Bush the edge in 2004. Just for "what if" discussion, that the evangelical vote was the same % in 2004 as it was in 2000. Also take "gay marriage" out of the equation.

Would John Kerry have won or would have Bush still squeaked by? What states would Kerry have picked up as a result?
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #1 on: April 05, 2005, 07:51:29 pm »

Absolutely not, Kerry would've won NM, IA, FL, OH....it wouldn't have even been close.  It was those whackos that won it for Bush. 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: April 05, 2005, 08:23:30 pm »


I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.
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Jake
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« Reply #3 on: April 05, 2005, 09:36:14 pm »

Why do you think you lose?  Whackos?  Have fun being the minority.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: April 06, 2005, 11:46:17 am »

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.
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« Reply #5 on: April 06, 2005, 11:49:14 am »

Minnesota wouldn't have even been close.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2005, 02:04:51 pm »

Minnesota wouldn't have even been close.

If by Evangelical you mean Fundamentalist, you're correct.
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BRTD
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« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2005, 09:31:21 pm »

Minnesota wouldn't have even been close.

If by Evangelical you mean Fundamentalist, you're correct.

There are very few non-fundamentalist evangelicals here. If you're talking about Evangelical Lutherans, I'm one and we are NOT evangelical. It's one of those weird name things, but we're a rather liberal mainline denomination, not an evangelical one.
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PBrunsel
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2005, 03:45:42 pm »

Minnesota wouldn't have even been close.

To tell you the truth I don't think it was that close to begin with. Smiley
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jokerman
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« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2005, 03:59:47 pm »

I'm sure Kerry would have won.  I'll do some research on the matter.
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WMS
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« Reply #10 on: April 08, 2005, 12:15:44 am »

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.

You would know, having been working on that Political Analysis of NM...oh, yeah, how's that coming? Grin

Catron is Mormon? Explains a lot, actually.

And Carson would've beaten Coburn, right? Right? Hopefully? Shocked
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« Reply #11 on: April 08, 2005, 08:14:48 am »

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.

You would know, having been working on that Political Analysis of NM...oh, yeah, how's that coming? Grin

Catron is Mormon? Explains a lot, actually.

And Carson would've beaten Coburn, right? Right? Hopefully? Shocked
Definitely.
Well, actually, Coburn wouldn't have gotten past the primary. Grin
And Kerry would've at least won some counties in the state.
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WMS
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« Reply #12 on: April 12, 2005, 12:09:26 am »

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.

You would know, having been working on that Political Analysis of NM...oh, yeah, how's that coming? Grin

Catron is Mormon? Explains a lot, actually.

And Carson would've beaten Coburn, right? Right? Hopefully? Shocked
Definitely.
Well, actually, Coburn wouldn't have gotten past the primary. Grin
And Kerry would've at least won some counties in the state.
Yeah, those were some extreme results...mind you, these same people elected a Democrat to the House in SE Oklahoma, so it makes for some interesting ticket-splitting...
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tarheel-leftist85
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« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2005, 11:40:48 am »


VA-49.7/49.5
WV-52/47
NC-52/48
SC-55/44
GA-55/44
AL-63/35 (had little to do with evangelicals)
MS-57/43
LA-52/47
TN-52/47
FL-49.6/49.6
AR-49.8/49.2
MO-49.7/49.3
Kerry gets 52+% in MI, MN & PA; 51+% in WI; and 50+% in IA.  Stays the same in most of the Northeast, Pacific Coast.  Utah is still Bush 70+%--I don't think they consider themselves evangelicals.
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Platypus
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« Reply #14 on: June 27, 2005, 09:31:42 am »

I don't believe NM has a high evangelical vote.

Does actually; Little Texas is mostly Baptist, while on tuther side of the state Catron (IIRC) county is mostly Mormon.
There's also a growing amount of hispanic Evangelicals.

Is it just me or is the whole Evangelical Guatemala thing scaring you, too?
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2005, 01:36:53 pm »

We're all aware that the evangelical born again vote is what gave Bush the edge in 2004. Just for "what if" discussion, that the evangelical vote was the same % in 2004 as it was in 2000. Also take "gay marriage" out of the equation.

Would John Kerry have won or would have Bush still squeaked by? What states would Kerry have picked up as a result?

In case you weren't aware, Charlie Cook states clearly in the Cook Report for the 2004 election that the number of evangelicals who voted in this election showed a 0% change of the total electorate from 2000.  I should know, I heard it from his mouth three times.
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