I wouldn't be surprised if Carson runs. In the conservative bubble where he resides everyone is always telling him how great he is and how he should run and he perceives this as god's way of showing him his destiny. He will then get in and once under the microscope he will flame out after saying something stupid.
Sounds like the same reason why McDaniel is throwing a temper tantrum and crying about imaginary voter fraud. The voters couldn't
possibly reject him, the Great Chris McDaniel. Everyone he knew voted for him!