which map is more likely to happen by 2028?

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Both are very close elections.

[Never]

Map 1, I just can't see Florida remaining Republican if VA/NC/GA go Democratic.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Map 2 means Republicans do much better among hispanics, map 1 means they do much better with whites.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Map 1 is more likely, and I think that it is a very probable map for the future.

[Miles]

Map I, but OR should be red too.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Both aren't gonna happen.

Seriously, stop making these outlandish predictions. About 90% of the States will vote over the next decade roughly the same way they have voted over the past one.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Both aren't gonna happen.

Seriously, stop making these outlandish predictions. About 90% of the States will vote over the next decade roughly the same way they have voted over the past one.

hardly 90% but you're right in principle

[Never]

Both aren't gonna happen.

Seriously, stop making these outlandish predictions. About 90% of the States will vote over the next decade roughly the same way they have voted over the past one.

hardly 90% but you're right in principle

Wait, I hope I'm not misunderstanding your map, but it doesn't seem like a good idea to predict Ohio and Florida in either party's favor.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Both aren't gonna happen.

Seriously, stop making these outlandish predictions. About 90% of the States will vote over the next decade roughly the same way they have voted over the past one.

hardly 90% but you're right in principle

Wait, I hope I'm not misunderstanding your map, but it doesn't seem like a good idea to predict Ohio and Florida in either party's favor.

all this is is the states that flipped between 1996 and 2012 (ie the same 16-year time span we're talking about here)

[Never]

Both aren't gonna happen.

Seriously, stop making these outlandish predictions. About 90% of the States will vote over the next decade roughly the same way they have voted over the past one.

hardly 90% but you're right in principle

Wait, I hope I'm not misunderstanding your map, but it doesn't seem like a good idea to predict Ohio and Florida in either party's favor.

all this is is the states that flipped between 1996 and 2012 (ie the same 16-year time span we're talking about here)

Oh, okay

[ElectionsGuy]

Map 2, although both are unlikely. I can't see Arizona going democrat while Oregn goes republican, and while I have a hard time imagining Georgia going democrat while New Mexico goes republican, I think its possible.

[Sol]

Map 1 is more likely, but you have to swap out CO and Oregon, and flip over all of New England to the Ds.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Map 1 is more likely, but you have to swap out CO and Oregon, and flip over all of New England to the Ds.

I think a more economically populist Democratic Party combined with a more socially moderate GOP will put New Hampshire in the GOP column.

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Republicans way too optimistic about PA.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Republicans way too optimistic about PA.

PA isn't THAT blue. If republican nationwide statistics looked something like this, they'd probably get PA:

Demographic/% of vote going to republicans
White - 63%
Black - 11% (equal to Bush '04 numbers)
Hispanic - 40%
Asian - 40%
Other - 39%

In fact, with those numbers, they'd get a lot more than just PA, according to Nate Silver's applet (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2013/04/30/us/politics/presidential-math-demographics-and-immigration-reform.html?_r=0) (assuming no immigration reform) Here's the map:

[NHLiberal]

Why are people on this board so convinced that NH is trending Republican? If anything, it's trending Democratic

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Why are people on this board so convinced that NH is trending Republican? If anything, it's trending Democratic

3 of the last 4 presidential elections it has trended Republican actually. Could be due to people leaving Massachusetts to avoid higher taxes.

[TNF]

No one knows (normal)

[windjammer]

Both aren't gonna happen.

Seriously, stop making these outlandish predictions. About 90% of the States will vote over the next decade roughly the same way they have voted over the past one.

This.

Seriously, stop believing Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan will become completely republicans.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Both aren't gonna happen.

Seriously, stop making these outlandish predictions. About 90% of the States will vote over the next decade roughly the same way they have voted over the past one.

This.

Seriously, stop believing Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan will become completely republicans.

Do you know how dumb people would look now had this forum been around in like 1985?  It's absurd to 1) predict outlandish changes but 2) predict things will stay the same.  I don't think anyone pre-1932 would have predicted that the Black vote would be loyally Democratic for a century, but it has been!

Some on this forum act like the map we have now will be here forever except, you know, plus future Democratic gains.

[Never]

Both aren't gonna happen.

Seriously, stop making these outlandish predictions. About 90% of the States will vote over the next decade roughly the same way they have voted over the past one.

This.

Seriously, stop believing Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan will become completely republicans.

Do you know how dumb people would look now had this forum been around in like 1985?  It's absurd to 1) predict outlandish changes but 2) predict things will stay the same.  I don't think anyone pre-1932 would have predicted that the Black vote would be loyally Democratic for a century, but it has been!

Some on this forum act like the map we have now will be here forever except, you know, plus future Democratic gains.

^^^^^^^^^^^

Exactly, it is important to recognize that things inevitably change in the political arena.

[Sol]

Oh, the GOP will obviously make gains. But they will not be in New England. They'll be in the Midwest- in 2028 Ohio will vote like Arizona (in raw numbers) , and Wisconsin/Minnesota will vote like Ohio, and that trend will continue on after.

[CapoteMonster]

Map 2. People don't realize that the Hispanics in Florida are much more conservative than they are elsewhere. I doubt New Mexico goes Republican unless there is a more massive realignment though.

[BaconBacon96]

Map 1 without a doubt.

[Mr. Illini]

Map 2 because Illinois and Oregon are a pipedream for the Grand Old Party.