Will there be a Kurd nation in the next 5 years?

[dead0man]

Turkey, traditionally has been against the idea but they seem to be warming up to it.  cite

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Baghdad is in no position to stop them.  Assad is in the same boat, only worse.  Iran may want as many allies as it can get (and a buffer zone) against ISIS/radical Sunnis.  Of course Somalialand did the same thing in a sorta the same kind of situation 20+ years ago and still isn't recognized by anybody (and I don't really understand why not).

I think they will (minus the parts in Turkey and Iran) and I think it's great.  The Kurds deserve a homeland state.

[dead0man]

and for some reason, the White House is pushing against the idea.....link

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[Donerail]

Of course Somalialand did the same thing in a sorta the same kind of situation 20+ years ago and still isn't recognized by anybody (and I don't really understand why not).

Recognition sets the precedent that other secession movements are free to change colonial boundaries if it suits them (or, at least, that's the Africa Union's argument, and the US is unwilling to move forward without the AU moving first).

[Simfan34]

I doubt Turkey would want to see it, regardless of what a spokesman might say.

[politicus]

The problem is that the Turkish part of Kurdistan is by far the largest. Kurdistan without the areas in Turkey is sort of an amputated entity and the question of a unification of an independent Kurdistan with Turkish Kurdistan would always loom in the background.

[Potus]

It's dangerous to start talking about partition at this point. Any talk of dividing the Middle East among ethnic lines more than they already are is dangerous.

Our priority in the region, even though this isn't really your question, is maintaining a unified Iraq and continuing pressure on regimes in the region to promote human rights and democracy. We have to secure Iraq as a multiethnic, rule of law democracy. Our hasty withdrawal from the country led to a decline in stability.

A Kurdish nation would set a very dangerous precedent. It would signal that the world no longer has interest in protecting multiethnic nations and building peace in the Middle East. It would encourage ethnic secession movements across the region and light a new fire that threatens global security.

[BaconBacon96]

There should be. They have proven to be more stable than the Baghdad government.

[swl]

I don't think we will see a real independent and recognized Kurdish country within five years or even ten years, but my opinion is that Syria and Iraq will remain messy for a while and the Kurdish will keep their de facto independence or a large autonomy on their areas in these countries after things calm down.
No Iraqi or Syrian government will be strong enough to prevent it.

But for diplomatic reasons, official independence will take longer. They have been fighting for a century and I think they have learned how to wait, they probably realize that there is no point in pissing off Turkey or anyone else by rushing things.

Most Kurds in Turkey don't even want independence, they just want some of their rights to be recognized and I think things will end up peacefully there as Turkey becomes less nationalist and more aware of human rights.

[Mr. Morden]

Weirdly, Iraqi Kurdistan's closest ally in the region these days seems to be Turkey.  Not sure that means that Turkey is truly supportive of them forming their own state though.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

It's dangerous to start talking about partition at this point. Any talk of dividing the Middle East among ethnic lines more than they already are is dangerous.

Our priority in the region, even though this isn't really your question, is maintaining a unified Iraq and continuing pressure on regimes in the region to promote human rights and democracy. We have to secure Iraq as a multiethnic, rule of law democracy. Our hasty withdrawal from the country led to a decline in stability.

A Kurdish nation would set a very dangerous precedent. It would signal that the world no longer has interest in protecting multiethnic nations and building peace in the Middle East. It would encourage ethnic secession movements across the region and light a new fire that threatens global security.

Just like its far too late to stuff the nuclear genie back in the bottle, its far too late to stop people talking about partitioning Iraq. Ethnic secission movements are a very real thing - look at the Scottish Independence Referendum coming up this fall. Personally, I think smaller nations are a good thing - the failure modes of small to mid-sized governments, while bad, have a hard time reaching the mind-numbingly catastrophic levels that those of large and very large government can reach.

[Lief 🗽]

There already is a Kurdish nation. There just isn't a Kurdish state. [/pedant]

I doubt it though. Which is unfortunate, because the Kurds are the only ones over there who seem to have their sh[inks] together.

[homelycooking]

There already is a Kurdish nation. There just isn't a Kurdish state. [/pedant]

Call it ISIL's "Little Miss Muffet" problem - curds in the whey. [/Ernest]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

There already is a Kurdish nation. There just isn't a Kurdish state. [/pedant]

Call it ISIL's "Little Miss Muffet" problem - curds in the whey. [/Ernest]

I hadn't thought of that pun, but I certainly wish I had.  Still, the idea that multi-national states work in an era where political legitimacy is seen to be based in popular consent rather than divine providence is one that has been proven to be wrong time and time again.  So long as Iraqi Kurds see themselves as Kurds first and Iraqis second or even lower in priority, there will continue to be the push for a Kurdish state.  ISIS' success so far has been because Malaki ran a government of the Shia, by the Shia, for the Shia.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The problem is that the Turkish part of Kurdistan is by far the largest. Kurdistan without the areas in Turkey is sort of an amputated entity and the question of a unification of an independent Kurdistan with Turkish Kurdistan would always loom in the background.

As far as I remember, Iraqi Kurdistan (properly defined) is larger.

[politicus]

The problem is that the Turkish part of Kurdistan is by far the largest. Kurdistan without the areas in Turkey is sort of an amputated entity and the question of a unification of an independent Kurdistan with Turkish Kurdistan would always loom in the background.

As far as I remember, Iraqi Kurdistan (properly defined) is larger.

The Turkish provinces with a Kurdish majority or clear plurality are 190.000 km2 and all of Iraq is 437.000 km2. So you would need a pretty "imperialist" vision of whats "properly" Kurdish for that to be true. Basically saying that almost half of Iraq is part of the properly defined Iraqi Kurdistan.

Anyway, Turkey is clearly the country with the largest Kurdish population, so a Kurdistan without the Turkish areas will always seem like unfinished business, hence provoking Turkish anxities.

[bgwah]

Iraq has already been partitioned. How long it takes for the international community to formally recognize that is anybody's guess.

[ingemann]

I think people should remember that when we talk about Kurds and the Kurdish language, it's in my understanding a much more diverse group than we expect, linguistic their language are at least as diverse as the Scandinavian and Iberian languages. In fact the primary dialect in Iraqi Kurdistan are the same one as Iranian Kurdistan talk, while Syrian and turkish talk another barely mutual intelligible (with the Iran-Iraq one) dialect, a major distinction are that Turkish-Syrian Kurd have more loan words from Turkish and Armenian, while Iranian and Iraqi Kurdish burrow from Arabic and Farsi. As such one united Kurdistan may not necessary be the goal of the Iraqi Kurds, who could risk being dominated by the Turkish Kurds, through they would likely welcome the Syrian Kurds, who would only make up a minority of population.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Bibi just lent his support for a Kurd nation for what it's worth.

[Mr. Morden]

http://time.com/2945035/iraqi-kurds-to-vote-on-independence/

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[dead0man]

Good.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Good.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Good.

On paper yes, although I suspect the country will immediately dissolve into a civil war between Talabani and Barzani's forces

[Mr. Morden]

The US is expanding its supposedly "secret" CIA facility on the outskirts of Erbil, suggesting that regardless of what the US government may be saying publicly now, they'll be more than happy to keep working with the Kurds after they declare independence:

http://www.miamiherald.com/2014/07/11/4231510/expansion-of-secret-facility-in.html

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[Famous Mortimer]

How mixed are the Kurdish areas in Turkey anyway?

[ingemann]

How mixed are the Kurdish areas in Turkey anyway?

Very and there are also a large Kurdish minority outside the traditional Kurdish areas.