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Author Topic: KS: Survey USA: Davis Continues to Lead  (Read 2599 times)
░tmthforu94░
tmthforu94
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« on: June 25, 2014, 07:42:22 pm »

New Poll: Kansas Governor by Survey USA on 2014-06-25

Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2014, 09:37:08 pm »

Wonderful news! Looks like Gov. Brownkoch will be in for quite a trashing in one of the most Republican states in the country.

It's easy to be popular as a Senator when all you have to do is sit back and vote "no" on everything. It's a lot harder to be popular when you actually start implementing your far-right teabagger agenda.

It's also worth noting that he does pitifully against his primary challenger, only leading 55-37.
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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2014, 09:42:47 pm »

Davis is getting more than a quarter of Republicans.

The 18-34 group is interesting; Davis does the worst with them. Seems like a lot of conservative-leaning younger voters who don't like Brownback are going Libertarian (at 13%) over Democrat.
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badgate
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2014, 09:47:55 pm »

Can Davis better his numbers with 18-34 while keeping his lead elsewhere? I hope so. This poll is great news either way!
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2014, 10:05:03 pm »

Ok, time to move this to toss-up. IceSpear raises a really good point. Perhaps that's why all the Tea Partiers run for Senate instead of Governor? So they can just breathe fire without having to actually accomplish anything?
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LeBron FitzGerald
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2014, 10:54:22 pm »

Nice. Brownback can't seem to break the low 40s in most of these polls, ignoring Rassy, and since Survey's last poll, Davis has a +4 net gain of support to Brownback's +2. I would consider this a tossup now and Davis certainly has the bankroll to define himself in time.

Davis does have this dilemma though on what position he makes on the Brownback tax cuts when he would come off as a liberal who wants to raise taxes if he supports repealing the income tax cuts, but would disengage liberals if he comes out in favor of the status quo. He might also struggle holding those massive leads among moderates, Indies and women up to the election, so I wouldn't write Brownback off yet.

Another thing to note, Kobach leads by 6 in his race, so with Brownback not dragging him down at all and Kobach expected to win, this sets him up great for a 2018 run for Governor.
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░tmthforu94░
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2014, 11:38:14 pm »

Some thoughts...

Kris Kobach is pretty controversial - the new voter registration laws aren't going over too well. He is leading just because there is less knowledge on that race - Kobach leads simply because he is a Republican.

Sam Brownback's campaign is just getting into the swing of things - they didn't want to start hitting the pavement until after the session ended. On the other side, Davis has been campaigning hard for months. Additionally, Brownback has a huge financial advantage over Davis which he has barely used to this point - Davis's lead is going to evaporate once Brownback begins hitting Davis on his fairly liberal record in the Kansas house (most liberal in the Democratic caucus I believe).

Essentially, this race is going to be pretty close due to some of Brownback's failed policies. Kansans aren't too fond of Brownback, but would they rather have Paul Davis? Ultimately, I think we will stick with Brownback.

As for 2018...time will tell. I think Yoder is going to be looking for a promotion, though he may be waiting for Roberts to retire in 2020. Jenkins is in House Leadership so I doubt she will make the jump unless the field clears for her. Kobach could run, but I think we have a lot better options out there. Todd Tiahrt may also go for it if he loses the Congressional primary this year. My pick at this point would be AG Derek Schmidt.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2014, 11:54:06 pm »

Ok, time to move this to toss-up. IceSpear raises a really good point. Perhaps that's why all the Tea Partiers run for Senate instead of Governor? So they can just breathe fire without having to actually accomplish anything?

Probably. Another reason could be that gubernatorial races are more about your policies and less about the scary black man in the White House.

It could also explain why dumb as a post Scott Brown decided to carpetbag to NH rather than run in the much more winnable MA gubernatorial race.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2014, 12:53:44 am »

It's also worth noting that he does pitifully against his primary challenger, only leading 55-37.

55-37 in the primary is a Cantor-esque lead.

With the difference that SUSA is a much better pollster than Vox Populi.

But I wouldn't be all too shocked if Brownback loses the primary.

...

Also, the GE electorate is 56% R, 28% D and 16% I in this poll.

And Davis is still leading by 6 overall !

That's really impressive.
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░tmthforu94░
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2014, 01:22:51 am »

I highly doubt Brownback loses the primary - there will be a lot of protest votes but Winn is almost completely unheard of. My knowledge is that while Brat was a complete surprise, he at least had somewhat of a campaign operation. Anyways, hopefully this poll causes the Brownback camp to wake up a bit - it's time to start operating in full gear.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2014, 02:28:43 am »

Tmthforu,
You're saying Davis isn't attacked at all right now??

But that's clearly stupid from the republicans if that's true. Ads won't work anymore when Davis will be much more well known. Ads work only when the person is relatively unknown.
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░tmthforu94░
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2014, 02:48:05 am »

Tmthforu,
You're saying Davis isn't attacked at all right now??

But that's clearly stupid from the republicans if that's true. Ads won't work anymore when Davis will be much more well known. Ads work only when the person is relatively unknown.
Very little. Republicans dismissed his candidacy when he first announced because of his liberal voting record, but he has quietly build a pretty solid following and he's not going to go away easily.

Brownback's strategy seems to be to wait until September and October, flood the airwaves, and expect victory. He's going to need to do more than that to win, and hopefully this poll serves as a wake-up call.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2014, 03:58:01 am »

Wow. People really disapprove of what he's done with education. Also, Brownback is winning younger voters!
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2014, 04:18:17 am »

Brownback only leads 55-37 against a some chick candidate. Dude is headed for defeat.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2014, 11:04:50 am »

Tmthforu,
You're saying Davis isn't attacked at all right now??

But that's clearly stupid from the republicans if that's true. Ads won't work anymore when Davis will be much more well known. Ads work only when the person is relatively unknown.
Very little. Republicans dismissed his candidacy when he first announced because of his liberal voting record, but he has quietly build a pretty solid following and he's not going to go away easily.

Brownback's strategy seems to be to wait until September and October, flood the airwaves, and expect victory. He's going to need to do more than that to win, and hopefully this poll serves as a wake-up call.

This is really a strange strategy.
Oh, I still expect him to win, but he needs to have a better strategy.
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Oldiesfreak1854
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« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2014, 08:11:31 pm »

I'm pretty skeptical.  I think Brownback will win anyway.  SurveyUSA was the same pollster that put Christie's job disapproval in NJ at 63% his first few months in office, even as most pollsters had it much higher.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2014, 11:52:42 pm »

I'm pretty skeptical.  I think Brownback will win anyway.  SurveyUSA was the same pollster that put Christie's job disapproval in NJ at 63% his first few months in office, even as most pollsters had it much higher.

SurveyUSA was also the only pollster to have McCaskill winning in a landslide, whereas everyone else thought she'd win narrowly.
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