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  NC-Civitas: Sen. Hagan (D) opens 4-6 point leads
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Author Topic: NC-Civitas: Sen. Hagan (D) opens 4-6 point leads  (Read 1766 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 26, 2014, 11:57:57 am »

3-way:

42-36-9 Hagan/Tillis/Haugh

2-way:

47-43 Hagan/Tillis

...

In their last poll, Tillis led by 3-5 points.

http://www.nccivitas.org/2014/hagan-leads-tillis-nc-senate-race
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: June 26, 2014, 12:01:22 pm »

PPP's commentary on this new poll:

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Miles
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« Reply #2 on: June 26, 2014, 12:04:46 pm »

Also, the ads thats she's running are pretty good, IMO.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #3 on: June 26, 2014, 12:05:32 pm »

Art Pope's poll shows Hagan ahead?
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« Reply #4 on: June 26, 2014, 12:33:19 pm »

This is good news for Hagan, but it's important to remember that this was a poll of registered voters. I'm fairly confident that if the sample were comprised of likely voters, her lead would surely be smaller (not to say that Hagan doesn't have an edge at this point in time).
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Free Bird
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« Reply #5 on: June 26, 2014, 01:04:40 pm »

The lead is undeniable if not smaller, but I think this is due to the hated state congress being in session. Come October, and Tillis will be more aggressive. I think a lot of state seats will flip, though.
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illegaloperation
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« Reply #6 on: June 26, 2014, 01:27:13 pm »

The lead is undeniable if not smaller, but I think this is due to the hated state congress being in session. Come October, and Tillis will be more aggressive. I think a lot of state seats will flip, though.
doubt it. The anger is on the side of the Democrats and that's very powerful force.
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Flake
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« Reply #7 on: June 26, 2014, 02:36:41 pm »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Civitas Institute on 2014-06-22

Summary: D: 42%, R: 36%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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« Reply #8 on: June 26, 2014, 04:31:32 pm »

I noticed that on the question asking whether respondents would rather elect a Republican as a check to Pres. Obama's policies and try for a Republican Senate majority versus electing a Democrat who would support the President's policies and result in continued Democratic control of the Senate, the respondents picked the Republican over the Democrat 49-45. This sentiment could pose danger for Hagan if the Senate race in NC becomes heavily nationalized.

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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2014, 05:55:14 pm »

I noticed that on the question asking whether respondents would rather elect a Republican as a check to Pres. Obama's policies and try for a Republican Senate majority versus electing a Democrat who would support the President's policies and result in continued Democratic control of the Senate, the respondents picked the Republican over the Democrat 49-45. This sentiment could pose danger for Hagan if the Senate race in NC becomes heavily nationalized.

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But will the North Carolina GOP have the ability to "nationalize" North Carolina politics? The Republican Party in North Carolina is a mess even if it has the majority.

Republicans would like to believe that the Senate election in North Carolina is a replay of the Senate election in Arkansas in 2010.  That is as much a fantasy as that of most of us getting super-rich. 
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Never
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« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2014, 06:10:13 pm »

I noticed that on the question asking whether respondents would rather elect a Republican as a check to Pres. Obama's policies and try for a Republican Senate majority versus electing a Democrat who would support the President's policies and result in continued Democratic control of the Senate, the respondents picked the Republican over the Democrat 49-45. This sentiment could pose danger for Hagan if the Senate race in NC becomes heavily nationalized.

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But will the North Carolina GOP have the ability to "nationalize" North Carolina politics? The Republican Party in North Carolina is a mess even if it has the majority.

Republicans would like to believe that the Senate election in North Carolina is a replay of the Senate election in Arkansas in 2010.  That is as much a fantasy as that of most of us getting super-rich. 

Granted, the NC-GOP's ability to nationalize this race is probably limited, but a couple of months is still plenty of time for this race to deteriorate for Hagan. We also have to remember that many outside groups and the national Republican party are surely strong enough to affect this race.

Regarding the Senate races, I'm not really seeing any Southern Democratic candidate this year who is as weak as Blanche Lincoln was. That realization is one of my many reasons for having my current Senate forecast at a Republican gain of 5, with Hagan holding on in NC. Still, there is a very real possibility that Hagan's prospects could weaken and Tillis' could improve.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2014, 06:12:36 pm »

I noticed that on the question asking whether respondents would rather elect a Republican as a check to Pres. Obama's policies and try for a Republican Senate majority versus electing a Democrat who would support the President's policies and result in continued Democratic control of the Senate, the respondents picked the Republican over the Democrat 49-45. This sentiment could pose danger for Hagan if the Senate race in NC becomes heavily nationalized.

Quote
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But will the North Carolina GOP have the ability to "nationalize" North Carolina politics? The Republican Party in North Carolina is a mess even if it has the majority.

Republicans would like to believe that the Senate election in North Carolina is a replay of the Senate election in Arkansas in 2010.  That is as much a fantasy as that of most of us getting super-rich. 

Granted, the NC-GOP's ability to nationalize this race is probably limited, but a couple of months is still plenty of time for this race to deteriorate for Hagan. We also have to remember that many outside groups and the national Republican party are surely strong enough to affect this race.

Regarding the Senate races, I'm not really seeing any Southern Democratic candidate this year who is as weak as Blanche Lincoln was. That realization is one of my many reasons for having my current Senate forecast at a Republican gain of 5, with Hagan holding on in NC. Still, there is a very real possibility that Hagan's prospects could weaken and Tillis' could improve.

This is horrendously phrased. I mean the bias is very evident. This could just as easily be phrased as "a Democrat who would consider supporting President Obama's policies and programs" and "a Republican who would obstruct Obama's programs and policies at every turn regardless of whether they would benefit North Carolina."
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #12 on: June 26, 2014, 06:12:56 pm »

Tillis has made some nasty gaffes.

Much is possible in four months, but gaffes do not get undone.
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Badger
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« Reply #13 on: June 26, 2014, 06:24:02 pm »

Tillis has made some nasty gaffes.


Such as.....?
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« Reply #14 on: June 26, 2014, 08:14:44 pm »


Even if we see it fit to take any conceivable gaffes from Tillis into account, Hagan still isn't a strong candidate. This is probably going to be a close election in November either way.
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Holmes
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« Reply #15 on: June 26, 2014, 08:54:25 pm »

Yas Hagan, slay him, read him, drag him.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #16 on: June 27, 2014, 06:28:44 am »

Dominating! Smiley
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