NC-Civitas: Sen. Hagan (D) opens 4-6 point leads

[Never]

This is good news for Hagan, but it's important to remember that this was a poll of registered voters. I'm fairly confident that if the sample were comprised of likely voters, her lead would surely be smaller (not to say that Hagan doesn't have an edge at this point in time).

[Never]

I noticed that on the question asking whether respondents would rather elect a Republican as a check to Pres. Obama's policies and try for a Republican Senate majority versus electing a Democrat who would support the President's policies and result in continued Democratic control of the Senate, the respondents picked the Republican over the Democrat 49-45. This sentiment could pose danger for Hagan if the Senate race in NC becomes heavily nationalized.

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[Never]

I noticed that on the question asking whether respondents would rather elect a Republican as a check to Pres. Obama's policies and try for a Republican Senate majority versus electing a Democrat who would support the President's policies and result in continued Democratic control of the Senate, the respondents picked the Republican over the Democrat 49-45. This sentiment could pose danger for Hagan if the Senate race in NC becomes heavily nationalized.

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But will the North Carolina GOP have the ability to "nationalize" North Carolina politics? The Republican Party in North Carolina is a mess even if it has the majority.

Republicans would like to believe that the Senate election in North Carolina is a replay of the Senate election in Arkansas in 2010.  That is as much a fantasy as that of most of us getting super-rich. 

Granted, the NC-GOP's ability to nationalize this race is probably limited, but a couple of months is still plenty of time for this race to deteriorate for Hagan. We also have to remember that many outside groups and the national Republican party are surely strong enough to affect this race.

Regarding the Senate races, I'm not really seeing any Southern Democratic candidate this year who is as weak as Blanche Lincoln was. That realization is one of my many reasons for having my current Senate forecast at a Republican gain of 5, with Hagan holding on in NC. Still, there is a very real possibility that Hagan's prospects could weaken and Tillis' could improve.

[Never]

Tillis has made some nasty gaffes.

Such as.....?

Even if we see it fit to take any conceivable gaffes from Tillis into account, Hagan still isn't a strong candidate. This is probably going to be a close election in November either way.