New Mexico Redistricting

[CountyTy90]

I decided to take on the Land of Enchantment and try not to break any counties.

Here's what I got for 1993-2003:

New Mexico's population in 1990 was 1,515,069 and was apportioned 3 Congressional Districts, giving each a target population of 505,023.

I don't have the demographics, unfortunately, for this Census.



District 1

Population- 504,371 (-652)

A fairly urban area mixed with some rural areas, the First takes up Bernalillo County, which houses the state's largest city, Albuquerque and also takes in Cibola County to the west, a rural county, only major town is Grants.

This district in the 90's would be slightly favored to the Republicans, though, with any big city it has the potential to vote Democratic. I would place my bet that throughout the 90's the seat would be held by a Republican. It would definitely be a swing district.

In 2000, the district gave Gore a slight win over Bush with 48.9% to 46.4%, respectively.

The CPVI for this district would be D+1.

District 2

Population- 505,048 (+25)

The Second district covers the southern half of New Mexico. This sprawling district spans the state from Texas to Arizona, Mexico to the southern Albuquerque suburbs. By far the most conservative/Republican part of the state, this district would be a safe Republican seat.

In 2000, the district gave Bush a large victory over Gore with W. getting 55.1% to Gore's 41.8%.

The CPVI for this district would be R+7.

District 3

Population- 505,650 (+627)

The Third district encompasses the northern half of New Mexico. From Oklahoma and Texas in the east, to Colorado in the north, and Arizona in the west, this district is probably the most geographically diverse of the three in the state; it's got desert, prairie, and the rugged Rocky Mountains. It's also the most ethnically diverse with no race constituting a majority. While I don't have the exact numbers, I would guess the district would be somewhere in the high 40% range White Non-Hispanic, high 30% for Hispanic, and high teens for Native Americans.

It takes in some of New Mexico's most famous places, Santa Fe, Taos, and other Native and old Hispanic landmarks.

With the district being so diverse, it has a long history of being the most Democratic part of the state and would make this district safe for the Democrats.

In 2000, Gore carried the Third with 52.2% of the vote to George Bush's 43%.

The district would have a CPVI of D+5.

[Sol]

New Mexico is a state where counties are not the only thing that matter- I believe that red district splits Indian communities.

[muon2]

New Mexico is a state where counties are not the only thing that matter- I believe that red district splits Indian communities.

Yes. It's not unreasonable to count each reservation as an entity discrete from a county.

[CountyTy90]

New Mexico is a state where counties are not the only thing that matter- I believe that red district splits Indian communities.

Yes, it does. In all reality, they should be kept together to form a community of interest, however, this is just for fun.

In the current drawing of the districts however, the Third, for example, has 22 reservations and splits 6.



Just take a look at the maps of the current districts, numerous reservations are split. And these are the legal maps!

http://www.census.gov/geo/maps-data/maps/113CD/st35_nm.html

[muon2]

It's interesting to contrast the NM maps to the AZ plans. With the independent commission in AZ no reservations get split.

[jimrtex]

It's interesting to contrast the NM maps to the AZ plans. With the independent commission in AZ no reservations get split.

The boundaries in NM are more complex, with many reservations having Off-Reservation Trust Lands.   If these were immediately adjacent to the reservation, they would likely be in the reservation.

The legislature failed to mass a redistricting map which was drawn by the courts.  The Navajo Nation was an intervenor, and they specifically requested that their lands be split between the 3 districts - and I think they were arguing that they had that as a matter of right.  It would likely be difficult to put all the Navajo areas in one district, and they requested that the areas in Bernalillo and Socorro counties be kept in the Districts 1 and 2.

[CountyTy90]

Here's 2000:

By the 2000 Census, New Mexico had 1,819,046 people and 3 districts, each with a target population of 606,349.



District 1

Population- 606,104 (-245)

The district is in the relatively same location as its predecessor. It takes it's full 1983-1993 shape back plus Cibola County from the 90's. The district is extremely urban in parts and extremely rural in parts.

Here's the demographics:

White- 47.4%
Hispanic- 41.7%
Native American- 5%
Other- 5.9%

The district, while taking in more rural areas, becomes slightly more Democratic as time goes on. Torrance County and De Baca are fairly Republican areas, while Guadalupe and Cibola Counties are strong Democratic areas due to their high Hispanic and Native American populations, respectively. Bernalillo County is a swing county, growing more Democratic throughout the decade. I could see the district electing a Republican representative until 2006 or 2008 when I think a Democrat would win.

In 2004, John Kerry narrowly won the district with 51.1% of the vote to George Bush's 47.6%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+3.

In 2008, Barack Obama absolutely swept the district with 59.8% of the vote!

This district would gave a CPVI of D+7.

In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Susana Martinez narrowly carried the district getting 51.3% of the vote to Diane Denish's 48.6%.

District 2

Population- 605,953 (-396)

This district changes very little from the 1990's, losing only tiny De Baca County.

Here's the demographics:

White- 46.3%
Hispanic- 48.3%
Native American- 1.7%
Other- 3.7%

This giant district is a fairly Republican district with strongholds like Chaves, Lincoln, and Lea counties, but also has some Democratic areas like Dona Ana, Valencia, and Socorro counties.

In 2004, George Bush won his only New Mexico district in the 2nd garnering 58.9% to Kerry's 40.1%.

This district would have a CPVI of R+8.

In 2008, John McCain also won his only district in the state, albeit narrowly, getting 51.3% to Obama's 47.3%.

This district would have a CPVI of R+6.

This is Susana Martinez's home district and gave her the margin to overtake Denish in the other parts of New Mexico; here she got 61.5% to Denish's 38.3%.

District 3

Population- 606,989 (+640)

The Third continues to compromise northern New Mexico. Santa Fe, Taos, Rio Rancho, and Farmington make up this district which mixes suburbs with wide open spaces and mountains.

Here's the demographics:

White- 40.5%
Hispanic- 36.2%
Native American- 20%
Other- 3.3%

The most racially diverse district, it is a very Democratic district. Taos, Rio Arriba, Santa Fe, McKinley, and San Miguel counties generally give >70% of their vote to Democrats in just about any election. The only real Republican area is San Juan, which strikes me as odd because there is a large Native American population in the county. Sandoval County is swingy, although now leaning towards the Democrats.

In 2004, John Kerry easily carried the district getting 54.5% to George Bush's 44.4%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+6.

In 2008, Barack Obama trounced McCain in the Third, getting 61.8% to McCain's 37%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+9.

Susana Martinez did very well "up here", more so than any Republican in a long time (except for Sen. Dominici). Denish narrowly carried the district only getting 51.2%, while Martinez got a very respectable 48.6%.

[jimrtex]

It's interesting to contrast the NM maps to the AZ plans. With the independent commission in AZ no reservations get split.

The boundaries in NM are more complex, with many reservations having Off-Reservation Trust Lands.   If these were immediately adjacent to the reservation, they would likely be in the reservation.

The legislature failed to mass a redistricting map which was drawn by the courts.  The Navajo Nation was an intervenor, and they specifically requested that their lands be split between the 3 districts - and I think they were arguing that they had that as a matter of right.  It would likely be difficult to put all the Navajo areas in one district, and they requested that the areas in Bernalillo and Socorro counties be kept in the Districts 1 and 2.

In three instances, for the Isleta Pueblo, Laguna Pueblo, and Sandia Pueblo, the split area has no population.   The Santa Ana Pueblo are split 618:3.  It appears that a boundary that was intended to go along the edge of the reservation in Sandoval County, nicked a tiny little extrusion (of a few 1000 acres).

The Navajo Nation is split 60,727 in NM-3, and 5007 in three disjoint southern areas in McKinley, Socorro, and Bernalillo counties in NM-2.

The only reservation that is really cut is the Zuni Reservation which is split 6402:1489.  It is possible that the Navajo had more clout, as the northern portion of the Zuni reservation that is NM-3 is east of the portion of the Navajo Nation that is in NM-3, and a boundary that kept all of the Zuni reservation in NM-2 would represent a slight intrusion into this area.

There are 1489 persons in the Zuni portion of NM-3.  1299 reported they were AIAN alone.  Of these 1177 were a Pueblo tribe, with presumably the overwhelming share of these Zuni; 57 Navajo; 36 scattering of specific AIAN tribes; and 29 not specified.

[muon2]

It's interesting to contrast the NM maps to the AZ plans. With the independent commission in AZ no reservations get split.

The boundaries in NM are more complex, with many reservations having Off-Reservation Trust Lands.   If these were immediately adjacent to the reservation, they would likely be in the reservation.

The legislature failed to mass a redistricting map which was drawn by the courts.  The Navajo Nation was an intervenor, and they specifically requested that their lands be split between the 3 districts - and I think they were arguing that they had that as a matter of right.  It would likely be difficult to put all the Navajo areas in one district, and they requested that the areas in Bernalillo and Socorro counties be kept in the Districts 1 and 2.

In three instances, for the Isleta Pueblo, Laguna Pueblo, and Sandia Pueblo, the split area has no population.   The Santa Ana Pueblo are split 618:3.  It appears that a boundary that was intended to go along the edge of the reservation in Sandoval County, nicked a tiny little extrusion (of a few 1000 acres).

The Navajo Nation is split 60,727 in NM-3, and 5007 in three disjoint southern areas in McKinley, Socorro, and Bernalillo counties in NM-2.

The only reservation that is really cut is the Zuni Reservation which is split 6402:1489.  It is possible that the Navajo had more clout, as the northern portion of the Zuni reservation that is NM-3 is east of the portion of the Navajo Nation that is in NM-3, and a boundary that kept all of the Zuni reservation in NM-2 would represent a slight intrusion into this area.

There are 1489 persons in the Zuni portion of NM-3.  1299 reported they were AIAN alone.  Of these 1177 were a Pueblo tribe, with presumably the overwhelming share of these Zuni; 57 Navajo; 36 scattering of specific AIAN tribes; and 29 not specified.

It was the Zuni split that caught my eye when I made my earlier post. It looked easy to keep the reservation together by shifting the border around Portales. Portales is split, and putting it all in CD 3 lets one put all the Zuni reservation in CD 2. It seems like there must have been some other consideration at work here.

[CountyTy90]

In 2010, New Mexico had a population of 2,059,179 giving it three Congressional districts, each with a target population of 686,393.



District 1

Population- 685,656 (-737)

This district is anchored by Albuquerque and moves eastward into some pretty rural areas. Interestingly, this district is the exact same as it was from 1983 to 1993. The district has a slight Hispanic plurality.

Here's the demographics:

White- 41.7%
Hispanic- 47.8%
Native American- 3.9%
Other- 6.6%

In the 2012 presidential election, Barack Obama easily carried the district over Mitt Romney getting 55.3% to Mitt's 39.6%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+6.

District 2

Population- 687,591 (+1,198)

This massive district combines Eastern New Mexico and Southern New Mexico. Looking much like it did from 1983-1993, it now has a Hispanic majority, however, it remains the most Republican district by far in the state.

Here's the demographics:

White- 41.9%
Hispanic- 52.2%
Native American- 1.5%
Other- 4.4%

In 2012, despite demographic changes, the district gave Mitt Romney a pretty big win over Barack Obama; Romney got 57.2% compared to Obama's 39.7%.

This district would have a CPVI R+11.

District 3

Again, the district is very similar to the shape it was from 1983 to 1993. Taking up northwestern New Mexico, this district, again, is by far the most diverse in the state. It takes in the suburbs north and south of Albuquerque and Santa Fe and it's environs. It sheds much of its eastern portion to the Second. The district has a slight Hispanic plurality.

Here's the demographics:

White- 37.8%
Hispanic- 38.5%
Native American- 20.2%
Other- 3.5%

The district continues its strong Democratic trend and gives Barack Obama 58.2% of the vote to Romney's 37.8%.

This district would have a CPVI of D+9.

[muon2]

This was a whole county version I did last year to minimize the population inequality. The deviations are -737, +503, and +234.

[Sol]

New Mexico is a good example of why splitting counties when it is not absolutely required is a good thing.