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Author Topic: PA-Franklin & Marshall College: Wolf (D) leads Gov. Corbett (R) by almost 2:1  (Read 3880 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 02, 2014, 03:15:49 am »



http://lancasteronline.com/news/local/democratic-challenger-tom-wolf-leads-gov-tom-corbett-by-points/article_a4bad992-0157-11e4-a262-001a4bcf6878.html
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Flake
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« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2014, 03:23:59 am »

New Poll: Pennsylvania Governor by Franklin and Marshall College on 2014-06-23

Summary: D: 47%, R: 25%, U: 27%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2014, 03:38:35 am »

The 12% for "others" in the graphic is a typo.

According to the F&M release, it's 1% for "others".

There are also 5% of undecideds leaning towards Corbett and 4% leaning towards Wolf, so the numbers with leaners are 51% Wolf, 30% Corbett, 1% others and 18% undecided.

http://www.fandm.edu/fandmpoll
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2014, 12:09:49 pm »

At this point this should be an easy pickup for Dems.
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TX Conservative Dem
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« Reply #4 on: July 11, 2014, 03:15:12 pm »

Corbett will need to start running negative TV Ads (see Gray Davis model in 2002) and do it NOW.
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Smash255
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« Reply #5 on: July 11, 2014, 03:29:50 pm »

Corbett will need to start running negative TV Ads (see Gray Davis model in 2002) and do it NOW.


The fat lady has already sung, done the encore, etc, this one is over.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2014, 12:12:01 am »

Corbett will need to start running negative TV Ads (see Gray Davis model in 2002) and do it NOW.


The fat lady has already sung, done the encore, etc, this one is over.
Indeed. You can't make up 21 points in four months when your state HATES you. Even if this year is a big republican wave, this will be a bright spot on the map for the democrats. The best Corbett can hope for at this point is to bring it within 10 points, and even that will be tough, which is why I recently moved this to Safe D. *glares at cook political report, who still has this at Toss-Up*
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« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2014, 12:06:06 pm »

I relish that 25% for Corbett. Smiley If he got that on election day it would be cause for a party.

The Education numbers are really interesting since secondary and higher education have been the target of cuts. One of the first things that Tom-less Corbett did was to try to gut the state university system's funding - I mean gut it, destroy it. I don't know what other states do, but Pennsylvania has a system of a dozen or 14 or so small universities that are totally state run. Lots of teachers and business degrees come out of those schools. Well, that made a lot of non-tea party and sane conservatives very angry who send their kids there and whose tuitions would probably double. Added to that would have been layoffs and so on. Never mind the highway, lottery, Marcellus, and wine store shenanigans. Oh, and the transportation bill raised the gas tax.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2014, 01:31:15 pm by DemPGH, President »Logged

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« Reply #8 on: July 14, 2014, 04:00:36 pm »

Wolf isn't even that mainstream of a candidate for Pennsylvania either.  That just goes to show you how disappointing Corbett has been.
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TX Conservative Dem
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« Reply #9 on: July 15, 2014, 11:08:54 am »

If he does lose in November, can Corbett get a rematch and seek 2nd and 3rd terms in 2018 and 2022 ?

Considering that Pennsylvania hasn't had a 3-term governor ever in the commonwealth's history.

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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: July 15, 2014, 11:16:49 am »

If he does lose in November, can Corbett get a rematch and seek 2nd and 3rd terms in 2018 and 2022 ?

Considering that Pennsylvania hasn't had a 3-term governor ever in the commonwealth's history.

Why would he want to be humiliated again?

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« Reply #11 on: July 15, 2014, 12:54:56 pm »

If Tom Ridge had ran this year (assuming the GOPers forced Corbett to drop out), he likely would've won the governorship easily.

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SWE
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« Reply #12 on: July 15, 2014, 07:23:39 pm »

You know, I've made a lot of jokes about Sabato's ratings, but he's right about this one. Corbett definitely has the same chance of winning as Scott Brown does
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« Reply #13 on: July 15, 2014, 09:11:20 pm »

If he does lose in November, can Corbett get a rematch and seek 2nd and 3rd terms in 2018 and 2022 ?

He'll be pushing 70 in 2018, I mean, I guess he could run, older guys have won. But I'm pretty he'll be done with politics.

But yeah, Wolf probably won't win with this big of a lead. It'll be big, maybe 10 points, but I doubt this big.

Corbett has been airing ads non-stop for the past week.

Including this one:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9oZgbSaMsM&list=UUxhcmWo0htoUlZy_C8u5shQ

He's also rolled out a negative ad talking about how Tom Wolf will raise taxes.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #14 on: July 15, 2014, 09:13:12 pm »

You know, I've made a lot of jokes about Sabato's ratings, but he's right about this one. Corbett definitely has the same chance of winning as Scott Brown does
Nah, Scott Brown has like a 15% chance of winning, for Corbett it is like 3% at best if the polling and his terrible approval ratings mean anything.
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Illuminati Blood Drinker
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« Reply #15 on: July 16, 2014, 12:46:39 am »

You know, I've made a lot of jokes about Sabato's ratings, but he's right about this one. Corbett definitely has the same chance of winning as Scott Brown does
Nah, Scott Brown has like a 15% chance of winning, for Corbett it is like 3% at best if the polling and his terrible approval ratings mean anything.
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« Reply #16 on: July 16, 2014, 07:16:04 am »

Basically trade this state and Illinois parties and call it a night in my book
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« Reply #17 on: July 16, 2014, 04:45:15 pm »

Basically trade this state and Illinois parties and call it a night in my book

Polls are showing quite a competitive election in Illinois.
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TX Conservative Dem
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« Reply #18 on: July 16, 2014, 11:16:29 pm »

The bigger question is how long before Christie & Co., at the Republican Governors Association decide to pull the plug and tell Corbett to get lost?

The PA GOPers are going to wish he had pulled a Bev Perdue and quit with dignity.

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