Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 18, 2019, 08:29:27 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: New features added! Click here for more information. Click here to configure new features.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2014 Gubernatorial Election Polls
| | | | |-+  2014 Senatorial Election Polls
| | | | | |-+  MN-Gravis Marketing: Sen. Franken (DFL) with huge lead
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: MN-Gravis Marketing: Sen. Franken (DFL) with huge lead  (Read 1494 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 08, 2014, 10:39:07 am »



http://gravismarketing.com/uncategorized/current-minnesota-polling
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 47,946
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 08, 2014, 10:40:33 am »

Quote
The results reported below are for all respondents. If one includes only likely voters, Franken holds a 58% to 30% lead.

Dominating !
Logged
SWE
SomebodyWhoExists
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 9,136
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 08, 2014, 11:12:26 am »

So what you're telling me is that Franken's chances of winning are the same as McConnell's?
Logged

Quote
18:37   Clark   Most of you are considered to be trolls, and with good reason

Quote
15:55   windjammer   you should all go to hell
 
For once, SWE is right
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,710
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2014, 06:26:44 pm »

So what you're telling me is that Franken's chances of winning are the same as McConnell's?

yes
Logged

Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,710
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 08, 2014, 06:31:43 pm »

New Poll: Minnesota Senator by Other Source on 2014-07-03

Summary: D: 51%, R: 35%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged

Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,463
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 08, 2014, 07:07:21 pm »

So what you're telling me is that Franken's chances of winning are the same as McConnell's?
No one suggested that prior to your post....

For the record, Franken is in much better shape than McConnell is, although neither is completely safe.
Logged

NHLiberal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 08, 2014, 09:42:04 pm »

So what you're telling me is that Franken's chances of winning are the same as McConnell's?
No one suggested that prior to your post....

For the record, Franken is in much better shape than McConnell is, although neither is completely safe.

Larry Sabato did: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-senate/

He has MN as "Likely D" and KY as "Likely R" when MN should be "Safe D" and KY should be "Pure Toss-Up."
Logged

Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,463
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.68, S: 1.22

P P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 09, 2014, 03:31:07 am »

So what you're telling me is that Franken's chances of winning are the same as McConnell's?
No one suggested that prior to your post....

For the record, Franken is in much better shape than McConnell is, although neither is completely safe.

Larry Sabato did: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-senate/

He has MN as "Likely D" and KY as "Likely R" when MN should be "Safe D" and KY should be "Pure Toss-Up."

I know about Sabato. Apparently he's not even looking at KY polling, or at least that's what it seems like.

You can argue for Likely D in MN, in fact I have the same rating for that race. McFadden isn't a bad candidate on paper, Franken almost lost in 2008, a lot of the polling (not this specific poll) has shown Franken's lead at only about 10 points, which isn't fully secure four months out, and this remains a target for republicans in a big wave. I see MN (and VA for that matter) as being about as favorable for the democrats as MT, SD, and WV are for the republicans. They're races that appear to be (fairly) safe for one side or the other, but could go the other way if the bottom falls out for one side or the other.

But with KY, I agree that Sabato is overestimating things. It's difficult to not call McConnell a favorite, based on McConnell's huge monetary advantage and 2008 performance as well as Kentucky's heavily republican federal political leanings, which is actually the justification that Sabato uses for keeping it at Likely R. But what's my rating for the KY race? I only have it at Leans R.

Why do I only have KY at Leans R despite agreeing with Sabato on why McConnell's a favorite? Because of the polling. My message to McConnell is, is that if you are really as favored as Sabato and WaPo think you are, prove it to me in the polling. Right now, an average of the last four polls puts the McConnell advantage at a pathetic 1.25% (My average doesn't include internals). I, quite frankly, don't see how you can put a race at Likely R in which the polling is so close, and it's been about that close for the entire cycle (occasionally switching between McConnell leads and Grimes leads and then back to McConnell and so on...). If the average showed McConnell up 6 or so, I'd upgrade McConnell's chances, but right now leans R appears to be the right rating - accounting for underlying factors that heavily, heavily favor McConnell but also acknowledging the heavily close polling. Apparently Sabato sees no need to account for the polling, just stubbornly believing "McConnell's gonna Win no matter what!" and keeping it at Likely R despite tons of pressure to switch it to Leans R and plenty of polling to merit such a change or even a change to Toss-Up if Sabato suddenly decides to disregard underlying factors.
Logged

dmmidmi
dmwestmi
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,096
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2014, 08:03:13 am »

So what you're telling me is that Franken's chances of winning are the same as McConnell's?
No one suggested that prior to your post....

For the record, Franken is in much better shape than McConnell is, although neither is completely safe.

Larry Sabato did: http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2014-senate/

He has MN as "Likely D" and KY as "Likely R" when MN should be "Safe D" and KY should be "Pure Toss-Up."

I know about Sabato. Apparently he's not even looking at KY polling, or at least that's what it seems like.

You can argue for Likely D in MN, in fact I have the same rating for that race. McFadden isn't a bad candidate on paper, Franken almost lost in 2008, a lot of the polling (not this specific poll) has shown Franken's lead at only about 10 points, which isn't fully secure four months out, and this remains a target for republicans in a big wave. I see MN (and VA for that matter) as being about as favorable for the democrats as MT, SD, and WV are for the republicans. They're races that appear to be (fairly) safe for one side or the other, but could go the other way if the bottom falls out for one side or the other.

But with KY, I agree that Sabato is overestimating things. It's difficult to not call McConnell a favorite, based on McConnell's huge monetary advantage and 2008 performance as well as Kentucky's heavily republican federal political leanings, which is actually the justification that Sabato uses for keeping it at Likely R. But what's my rating for the KY race? I only have it at Leans R.

Why do I only have KY at Leans R despite agreeing with Sabato on why McConnell's a favorite? Because of the polling. My message to McConnell is, is that if you are really as favored as Sabato and WaPo think you are, prove it to me in the polling. Right now, an average of the last four polls puts the McConnell advantage at a pathetic 1.25% (My average doesn't include internals). I, quite frankly, don't see how you can put a race at Likely R in which the polling is so close, and it's been about that close for the entire cycle (occasionally switching between McConnell leads and Grimes leads and then back to McConnell and so on...). If the average showed McConnell up 6 or so, I'd upgrade McConnell's chances, but right now leans R appears to be the right rating - accounting for underlying factors that heavily, heavily favor McConnell but also acknowledging the heavily close polling. Apparently Sabato sees no need to account for the polling, just stubbornly believing "McConnell's gonna Win no matter what!" and keeping it at Likely R despite tons of pressure to switch it to Leans R and plenty of polling to merit such a change or even a change to Toss-Up if Sabato suddenly decides to disregard underlying factors.

One part of one sentence ruined your entire post.
Logged

Big Daddy Gonna Take Care Of Us
ChairmanSanchez
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 31,361
United States


Political Matrix
E: 5.29, S: -5.04

P

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2014, 10:49:57 pm »

Oddly enough, my personal tie took a job on another campaign a while back, so I wonder if the sudden drop in McFadden's polling (who was closing the gap only a few months ago) has to do with a subpar replacement.
Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines