APRIL 15 UPDATE - Rasmussen - Bush "Won" Wednesday

[The Vorlon]

April 15th Update[/size]
Rasmussen Tracking has Bush +0.9% at 45.9% to 45.0% on their 3 day roll.

Rasmussen is showing an even race, the daily blips are just statistical noise at this point.

Bush fans might see the "win" on Wednesday as "proof" that the presidents speach on Tuesday night was a hit...

Let's wait afew more days till we jump to that conclussion...  Not saying you are wrong, just can't say your are "right" either...

The usual 1, 3, and 7 day averages (Bush/Kerry, Bush/Kerry, Bush/Kerry)

8-Apr   48.3   42.8   44.3   46.4   44.5   46.1
9-Apr   41.4   43.1   45.9   44.4   43.6   46.1
10-Apr   50.4   44.6   46.7   43.5   45.0   45.9
11-Apr   46.2   44.9   46.0   44.2   45.1   44.9
12-Apr   40.2   48.5   45.6   46.0   44.4   45.8
13-Apr   48.6   47.6   45.0   47.0

I "think" I am seeing fewer undecideds.

The results from the weekend are highly questionable, since they were taken on the Easter weekend.

Bush had a really bad sample on the 12th, the day befor his press conference.

We will have to wait till friday to see if Bush news conference had any actual effect.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

End Update[/size]
Quick Comment on Newsweek Poll

The Kerry +7/+4 is based on 874 REGISTERED VOTERS (I checked directly with Larry Hugick at PSRA International, the firm that did the poll)

Typically the "Registered" voter result is "about" 2-3% more friendly to Democrats than the "likely" voter result.  In the last Gallup the gap was actually 5%, but that was a weighting quirk, not a "real" result.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4709863/

American Research Group - Kerry + 6 (+5 with Nader)

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

Gallup - Bush +3 (+4 with Nader)

http://www.gallup.com/election2004/

Rasmussen - Bush +2

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

Zogby - Bush +1 with Nader, Kerry +2 without Nader

http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=815

AP Ipsos/Reed - Bush +1 with Nader

[http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040409/ap_on_el_pr/president_ap_poll&cid=694&ncid=716

FoxNews - Kerry +1 Head to head

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,116583,00.html

TIPP/IBD - Kerry +2

http://www.investors.com/editorial/feature.asp?v=4/6

CBSNews/NYTimes - Kerry +5 (Head to Head)

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/04/02/opinion/polls/main609944.shtml

SUMMARY

Head to Head:

Gallup - Bush +3
Rasmussen Bush +2
FoxNews Kerry +1
TIPP/IBD - Kerry +2
Zogby Kerry +2

Good Firms Still to Come:

Teeter/Hart
Terrance Group
Democracy Corps/Greenburg/Quinlan
ABCNews (kinda on the edge of good, they do some kinky weighting)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This is an excellent summary of the week.  Thanks...and I hope you keep it up!

What I was actually suggesting is that the polls go into a separate FORUM so that they don't drown out substantive conversations about 2004 issues.  
It seems Dave has solved this problem by determining that it is the substantive stuff that is in the minority, and relegating it to a new forum!

[Lunar]

I see you're calling it a tie Vorlon, switching over New Hampshire and Pennsylvania.

[© tweed]

[dunn]

a tie

[© tweed]

a tie

Just about...but if NAder drops out, it is no longer a tie.

[The Vorlon]

Nice graph

Devils down 2-0.. even nicer

[© tweed]

Nice graph

Devils down 2-0.. even nicer

I might be going on Monday...we're gonna take two back home..

[The Vorlon]

the substantive stuff that is in the minority

Dave is right..

[classical liberal]

Has anyone seen any recent polls from IN, KY, VA, NC, SC, or GA?

[opebo]

Has anyone seen any recent polls from IN, KY, VA, NC, SC, or GA?

No.  But the only question is how large a margin Bush has there.

[agcatter]

Newsweek's poll has got to be the biggest pile of crap out there.  They did this all thru the 2000 campaign as well.  At least Fox News keeps it's Opinion Dynamics Poll separate from its political viewpoint.  Apparently, Newsweek just can't seem to be able to do that.  Their polling is just an arm of their editorial board.  Sheesh.

[© tweed]

Has anyone seen any recent polls from IN, KY, VA, NC, SC, or GA?

Indiana (about a month ago:) Bush 52% Kerry 37%
Kentucky (2 months ago): Bush 57% Kerry 41%
NC (1.5 months ago): Bush 51% Kerry 43%

[The Vorlon]

Newsweek's poll has got to be the biggest pile of crap out there.  They did this all thru the 2000 campaign as well.  At least Fox News keeps it's Opinion Dynamics Poll separate from its political viewpoint.  Apparently, Newsweek just can't seem to be able to do that.  Their polling is just an arm of their editorial board.  Sheesh.

Wow.. what a shock... Newsweek showing a big Kerry lead, I would never have predicted that... oh wait I did predict that...

I expected Gallup to be close to even, so if you count Besh +3 as "close" so far we're batting a 1000 ....

[agcatter]

yes you did.

[DarthKosh]

Newsweek's poll has got to be the biggest pile of crap out there.  They did this all thru the 2000 campaign as well.  At least Fox News keeps it's Opinion Dynamics Poll separate from its political viewpoint.  Apparently, Newsweek just can't seem to be able to do that.  Their polling is just an arm of their editorial board.  Sheesh.

Wow.. what a shock... Newsweek showing a big Kerry lead, I would never have predicted that... oh wait I did predict that...

I expected Gallup to be close to even, so if you count Besh +3 as "close" so far we're batting a 1000 ....

Newsweek polls "Adults".  Not likely voters.

[agcatter]

I thought it was regisered voters as opposed to likely voters.

[© tweed]

I thought it was regisered voters as opposed to likely voters.

Yep.

"Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates. April 8-9, 2004. N=874 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4 (for all registered voters)."

[© tweed]

Rasmussen: Bush+2

[muon2]

Rasmussen: Bush+2

1, 3 or 7 day average?

[ShapeShifter]

Rasmussen: Bush+2

1, 3 or 7 day average?

3 day average

[© tweed]

Ask the Vorlon for avergaes...he knows how to calculate it.

[The Vorlon]

Ask the Vorlon for avergaes...he knows how to calculate it.

Here are the daily break outs for Rasmussen:

             1 day               3 day              7 day
             BUSH  KERRY   BUSH  KERRY   BUSH  KERRY        
7-Apr   48.0   47.3   43.2   46.4   44.7   46.9
8-Apr   48.3   42.8   44.3   46.4   44.5   46.1
9-Apr   41.4   43.1   45.9   44.4   43.6   46.1
10-Ap   50.4   44.6   46.7   43.5   45.0   45.9
11-Ap   46.2   44.9   46.0   44.2   45.1   44.9

[© tweed]

The Vorlon,

Who are you voting fo in this election?  Just wondering.

[The Vorlon]

The Vorlon,

Who are you voting fo in this election?  Just wondering.

Libertarian..

The Ayn Rand stamp wasn't a big enough "hint" ...