MS-PPP: Sen. Cochran (R) ahead by double-digits, many still undecided

[Tender Branson]

Q5 If the candidates for U.S. Senate this fall were Republican Thad Cochran, Democrat Travis Childers, and Reform Party candidate Shawn O’Hara, who would you vote for?

Thad Cochran ................................................. 40%
Travis Childers................................................ 24%
Shawn O'Hara ................................................ 5%
Undecided....................................................... 31%

Q6 Horse race, with O'Hara supporters asked whether they lean Cochran or Childers:

Thad Cochran ................................................. 41%
Travis Childers................................................ 26%
Not sure .......................................................... 33%

PPP surveyed 691 Mississippi voters overall and 501 Republican primary voters from
July 10th to 13th. The margin of error for the overall sample is +/-3.7% and for the
Republican primary voters it’s +/-4.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any
campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated
telephone interviews.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_MS_715.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Btw, Cochran leads the DINO Childers by 1 among Blacks (by 2 in the Reform-less matchup).

[Del Tachi]

Ha!  McDaniel's favorables are way down to, around 39/52.

Cochran's going to win the GE as a Democrat LOL

[MATTROSE94]

Btw, Cochran leads the DINO Childers by 1 among Blacks (by 2 in the Reform-less matchup).

It would be interesting if Thad Cochran ends up winning more than a quarter of the black vote against Travis Childers.

[Tender Branson]

Btw, Cochran leads the DINO Childers by 1 among Blacks (by 2 in the Reform-less matchup).

It would be interesting if Thad Cochran ends up winning more than a quarter of the black vote against Travis Childers.

If the polls show a blowout before the election, the exit pollster might even skip MS and we'll never know.

Exit Pollsters these days have limited money too and as we saw in 2012, are not exit polling each state anymore ...

[Tender Branson]

PPP-tweet pretty much sums it up:

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[IceSpear]

Btw, Cochran leads the DINO Childers by 1 among Blacks (by 2 in the Reform-less matchup).

It would be interesting if Thad Cochran ends up winning more than a quarter of the black vote against Travis Childers.

If the polls show a blowout before the election, the exit pollster might even skip MS and we'll never know.

Exit Pollsters these days have limited money too and as we saw in 2012, are not exit polling each state anymore ...

County results would still roughly tell the story.

Also, wow:

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[7,052,770]

Just for fun:

If you reset the black vote in this poll to 20% Cochran, 65% Childers, 15% Undecided (which would still be an unbelievably poor showing for Childers if that's what it looks like on Election Day), it becomes 34-34 dead heat with 28% undecided.

This may explain why Childers has gone on the stump for Obamacare. He's trying to bring the black vote back into his column and then hope McDaniel does the rest of the work for him.

[GaussLaw]

Just for fun:

If you reset the black vote in this poll to 20% Cochran, 65% Childers, 15% Undecided (which would still be an unbelievably poor showing for Childers if that's what it looks like on Election Day), it becomes 34-34 dead heat with 28% undecided.

This may explain why Childers has gone on the stump for Obamacare. He's trying to bring the black vote back into his column and then hope McDaniel does the rest of the work for him.

Do you believe Childers has any serious chance at winning?

I cannot see McDaniel voters casting a ballot for a Democrat.  I just can't.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Cochran's approval is 60% among people who say they are very liberal? I don't think Mississippians know what very liberal means.

[MaxQue]

Just for fun:

If you reset the black vote in this poll to 20% Cochran, 65% Childers, 15% Undecided (which would still be an unbelievably poor showing for Childers if that's what it looks like on Election Day), it becomes 34-34 dead heat with 28% undecided.

This may explain why Childers has gone on the stump for Obamacare. He's trying to bring the black vote back into his column and then hope McDaniel does the rest of the work for him.

I cannot see McDaniel voters casting a ballot for a Democrat.  I just can't.

No, but they can decide to not vote for Cochran either. Nobody is forcing them to make a choice.

[IceSpear]

Just for fun:

If you reset the black vote in this poll to 20% Cochran, 65% Childers, 15% Undecided (which would still be an unbelievably poor showing for Childers if that's what it looks like on Election Day), it becomes 34-34 dead heat with 28% undecided.

This may explain why Childers has gone on the stump for Obamacare. He's trying to bring the black vote back into his column and then hope McDaniel does the rest of the work for him.

Do you believe Childers has any serious chance at winning?

I cannot see McDaniel voters casting a ballot for a Democrat.  I just can't.

I think the hope is that they stay home, write him in, or vote third party. Most of them will come back to Cochran in the end though.

[7,052,770]

Just for fun:

If you reset the black vote in this poll to 20% Cochran, 65% Childers, 15% Undecided (which would still be an unbelievably poor showing for Childers if that's what it looks like on Election Day), it becomes 34-34 dead heat with 28% undecided.

This may explain why Childers has gone on the stump for Obamacare. He's trying to bring the black vote back into his column and then hope McDaniel does the rest of the work for him.

Do you believe Childers has any serious chance at winning?

I cannot see McDaniel voters casting a ballot for a Democrat.  I just can't.

Cochran will almost certainly win. Childers' chances are on the order of Gillespie's or Bellows' at best. The only way Childers could win is if the McDanielites make good on their threat not to vote for Cochran, either by staying home, voting for O'Hara, or voting Childers. Surely they won't, but you just can't put anything past those loons.

There's nothing Childers can do to encourage this, I don't think. It's entirely out of his hands.

However, even if that were to happen, Childers would still lose unless he gets the typical black showing for a Mississippi Democrat. That's why I speculate Childers is going after the Republicans for not expanding Medicaid. He's got to get the black vote back in his column just in case the Tea Party decides to spitefully burn the house down.

[GaussLaw]

Just for fun:

If you reset the black vote in this poll to 20% Cochran, 65% Childers, 15% Undecided (which would still be an unbelievably poor showing for Childers if that's what it looks like on Election Day), it becomes 34-34 dead heat with 28% undecided.

This may explain why Childers has gone on the stump for Obamacare. He's trying to bring the black vote back into his column and then hope McDaniel does the rest of the work for him.

Do you believe Childers has any serious chance at winning?

I cannot see McDaniel voters casting a ballot for a Democrat.  I just can't.

Cochran will almost certainly win. Childers' chances are on the order of Gillespie's or Bellows' at best. The only way Childers could win is if the McDanielites make good on their threat not to vote for Cochran, either by staying home, voting for O'Hara, or voting Childers. Surely they won't, but you just can't put anything past those loons.

There's nothing Childers can do to encourage this, I don't think. It's entirely out of his hands.

However, even if that were to happen, Childers would still lose unless he gets the typical black showing for a Mississippi Democrat. That's why I speculate Childers is going after the Republicans for not expanding Medicaid. He's got to get the black vote back in his column just in case the Tea Party decides to spitefully burn the house down.

Sounds about right. 

But honestly, Childers is basically cashless, so will blacks even get his message?