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  CO-Marist: Udall (D) up 7 among RVs
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Author Topic: CO-Marist: Udall (D) up 7 among RVs  (Read 1066 times)
Senator Cris
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« on: July 15, 2014, 05:30:08 am »
« edited: July 15, 2014, 05:35:31 am by Cris »

Poll conducted among Registered Voters

Udall (D) 48%
Gardner (R) 41%
Others 2%

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll%20Colorado%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_July%202014.pdf

Also... Hick leads Beauprez by 6 among RVs (49%-43%)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2014, 05:39:51 am »

Quite the relief to see this.

And for those who say LV will fix it all for the Republicans, the sample in this one is already R+5, both in party-ID and party-registration ...
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King Francis I
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2014, 06:12:55 am »

I don't believe that.

I will wait PPP.
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Never
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« Reply #3 on: July 15, 2014, 07:28:37 am »

I'm surprised that Gardner has more of a deficit in this poll than Beauprez; I'd expect the opposite to be the case. The only data in this poll that seemed to explain this is that Gardner's favorables outweighed his unfavorables by 2 points, while Beauprez's favorable were higher than his unfavorables by 8 points.

It is kind of strange how poorly Gardner did with this R+5 sample, considering Ken Buck lost by less than a point in 2010 with a D+5 electorate.
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sg0508
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2014, 07:32:03 am »

I think you'll see a lot of straight ticket voting in CO.  Thus, I expect the Udall/Hickenlooper numbers to end up around the same.

My guess is around 52-44% for both races.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: July 15, 2014, 07:57:50 am »

Udall is pounding Gardner on the Hobby Lobby case and even co-sponsoring a bill that would undo some of the damage of the decision. He knows that he needs to win suburban Denver women that used to vote Republican but are now more likely to vote for a Democrat due to issues like this.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #6 on: July 15, 2014, 08:23:37 am »

The Democrats could have Romney ed the Republicans by casting them as unacceptable over the summer.
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« Reply #7 on: July 15, 2014, 11:46:38 am »

On Twitter, Nathan Gonzalez from Roll Call pointed out that the sample was 16% Latino, and that this seemed strange because the 2012 electorate in CO was only 14% Latino.

Personally, I don't think this completely writes off Udall's advantage, but he might not lead by 7 points.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #8 on: July 15, 2014, 11:52:14 am »

Cohn pointed out in the exchange that Udall leads by 2 among whites, so the Hispanic difference is marginal.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #9 on: July 16, 2014, 07:11:42 am »

Fantastic news! Smiley
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Dave Leip
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« Reply #10 on: July 30, 2014, 03:21:58 pm »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Marist College on 2014-07-10

Summary: D: 48%, R: 41%, I: 2%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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