IA-Marist/NBC: Braley and Ernst tied

[free my dawg]

If it's a poll of registered voters, then Ernst is probably leading IRL.

So now we've resorted to unskewing to escape from inconvenient truths.

Holy sh*t, you really do represent everything you hate in today's GOP.

[free my dawg]

If it's a poll of registered voters, then Ernst is probably leading IRL.

So now we've resorted to unskewing to escape from inconvenient truths.

Holy sh*t, you really do represent everything you hate in today's GOP.

Uh, no I haven't.  The fact is that polls of registered voters are more likely to overstate Democrat numbers because the pool of registered voters is more D than that of likely voters.  Plus, polls of likely voters are generally more accurate anyway, simply because they are "likely" voters.

The election is three and a half months out, and the only recent LV polls that show Ernst with a significant lead have been from a Republican internal (which is largely untested, did awfully in its first race, and shows absurd results) and a uni firm with flawed methodology (that is, basing the electorate directly off of an anomaly of a cycle). If anything, the only LV poll with a shred of reputability that was taken post-primary confirms this result, not refutes it. Overall, this poll seems accurate, and doesn't need to be unskewed because it shows a competitive race.