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Author Topic: CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner (R) by 2  (Read 2076 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: July 17, 2014, 07:13:17 am »

44% Gardner (R)
42% Udall (D)

Quote
This compares to the results of an April 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Sen. Udall at 45 percent to 44 percent for Rep. Gardner.

Today, Udall leads 86 - 5 percent among Democrats, while Republicans go to Gardner 85 - 5 percent. Independent voters go 43 percent for Udall and 40 percent for Gardner.

Colorado voters give Udall a negative 42 - 46 percent job approval rating, his lowest net approval ever and down from a 42 - 42 percent split in April. Voters say 49 - 40 percent that Udall does not deserve to be reelected, tying his lowest score on that measure.

Udall gets a slightly negative 40 - 43 percent favorability, compared to Gardner's slightly positive 34 - 31 percent score.

Udall is too liberal, 40 percent of voters say, while 7 percent say he is too conservative and 40 percent say he is "about right." Gardner is too conservative, 32 percent of voters say, while 7 percent say he is too liberal and 37 percent say he is "about right."

"This race shifts back and forth a point or two and remains too close to call. There's a whole lot at stake as Sen. Mark Udall runs neck and neck with U.S. Rep. Cory Gardner, the GOP challenger, in a marquee race that could tip the balance of the Senate," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

From July 10 - 14, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,147 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=2060
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Free Bird
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« Reply #1 on: July 17, 2014, 08:47:09 am »

These results, especially for an RV poll, are all over the place. Either this or the Marist poll were tinkered with.
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« Reply #2 on: July 17, 2014, 08:55:44 am »

Let's wait for PPP, which is polling this weekend.
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« Reply #3 on: July 17, 2014, 08:57:39 am »

These results, especially for an RV poll, are all over the place. Either this or the Marist poll were tinkered with.

Let's wait for PPP, which is polling this weekend.

This and That.

This is Schrodinger's race. Until the election is taking place, both Democrats are losing because of Guns, Obamacare and Big Oil or Republicans are losing because of Abortion, Gays, Pot,
Immigration and Big Oil.

On the whole, I think if the Gardner wins, his race will be called after the senate is called.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2014, 09:02:37 am by Night Man »Logged

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« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2014, 08:59:25 am »

^ Perhaps we should wait for PPP, but CO seems like one of those states with iffy polling regardless of the pollster. Still, the fact that the recent polls of this Senate race are erratic definitely indicates that this will be a very competitive race. It's interesting that Gardner holds an overall lead in this poll despite losing the Independent vote.
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« Reply #5 on: July 17, 2014, 09:05:12 am »

^ Perhaps we should wait for PPP, but CO seems like one of those states with iffy polling regardless of the pollster. Still, the fact that the recent polls of this Senate race are erratic definitely indicates that this will be a very competitive race. It's interesting that Gardner holds an overall lead in this poll despite losing the Independent vote.

..and that he is losing the crossover vote, too. Is this poll relying on many missing liberal voters come election day? I know they have a tendency to forget to vote but..
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« Reply #6 on: July 17, 2014, 09:07:13 am »

Cohn noted a couple of days ago that CO polls have been off by an average of 3 in statewide races since '08. Not that there's a huge difference between Gardner +2 and Udall +1 at this point.
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« Reply #7 on: July 17, 2014, 09:22:15 am »

Cohn noted a couple of days ago that CO polls have been off by an average of 3 in statewide races since '08. Not that there's a huge difference between Gardner +2 and Udall +1 at this point.

This could mean that Gardner might be ahead by 7 or Udall by 10.

What were they off by 2010 and 2012?

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« Reply #8 on: July 17, 2014, 09:23:45 am »

^ Perhaps we should wait for PPP, but CO seems like one of those states with iffy polling regardless of the pollster. Still, the fact that the recent polls of this Senate race are erratic definitely indicates that this will be a very competitive race. It's interesting that Gardner holds an overall lead in this poll despite losing the Independent vote.

..and that he is losing the crossover vote, too. Is this poll relying on many missing liberal voters come election day? I know they have a tendency to forget to vote but..

Yeah, I kind of thought that was suspect.

Cohn noted a couple of days ago that CO polls have been off by an average of 3 in statewide races since '08. Not that there's a huge difference between Gardner +2 and Udall +1 at this point.

If PPP has this race within the MoE for either candidate, should we call this a pure tossup? I still think that Democrats have the edge in this race with Udall, but it seems like his advantage is deteriorating.
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« Reply #9 on: July 17, 2014, 09:24:26 am »

Enten says neither Marist nor Q has a good record. Kraushaar says that both campaigns' internals have a MOE race.
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7.35, 3.65

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« Reply #10 on: July 17, 2014, 09:33:00 am »

Udall has a gender gap, ahead 47/34 on "issues important to women" and 40/34 on abortion. Gardner has to close that, otherwise still Tilt D IMO.
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« Reply #11 on: July 17, 2014, 10:21:24 am »

Udall will win. Polls in Colorado are garbage and over-estimate Republicans (Quinnipiac said Romney would win by 1; he lost by 6).
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« Reply #12 on: July 17, 2014, 10:23:15 am »

Udall will win. Polls in Colorado are garbage and over-estimate Republicans (Quinnipiac said Romney would win by 1; he lost by 6).

So for polls otherwise this massively close, you're saying Udall will win by more than 7 because apparently that poll overestimated Gardner? I smell a goose in the henhouse.
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« Reply #13 on: July 17, 2014, 10:24:29 am »

I don't get the fetish with PPP. They are proven left leaning and do predominately RV, yet everyone here says they are the end all be all authority.
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« Reply #14 on: July 17, 2014, 10:40:09 am »

LV polls in July are stupid. No one is paying attention to politics until September. RV polls right now are perfectly fine.
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« Reply #15 on: July 17, 2014, 10:43:24 am »

LV polls in July are stupid. No one is paying attention to politics until September. RV polls right now are perfectly fine.

You're missing my point and attacking a side remark. How can you see most polls show them beating the crap out of each other, but then one poll shows up, shows Udall up by 7, and still say Colorado polls overestimate Republicans?
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« Reply #16 on: July 17, 2014, 10:52:05 am »

LV polls in July are stupid. No one is paying attention to politics until September. RV polls right now are perfectly fine.

You're missing my point and attacking a side remark. How can you see most polls show them beating the crap out of each other, but then one poll shows up, shows Udall up by 7, and still say Colorado polls overestimate Republicans?

I will give you that the claim that Democrats were oversampled turned out to be BS in 2012. Maybe the opposite will be true in 2014, but there are limits.
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« Reply #17 on: July 17, 2014, 11:02:35 am »

Udall has a gender gap, ahead 47/34 on "issues important to women" and 40/34 on abortion. Gardner has to close that, otherwise still Tilt D IMO.

Gardner does need to close that gender gap to a degree, but I suspect he could still lose women by quite a bit and still win this election. According to exit polls, Ken Buck lost women by 16 points. At this point, I don't see why Gardner would do that poorly with this demographic. If Gardner could lose women by less than 10-12 points, I think he has a fighting chance at defeating Udall, but if he can't, I agree that this race stays Tilt D.
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« Reply #18 on: July 17, 2014, 03:27:45 pm »

^ Perhaps we should wait for PPP, but CO seems like one of those states with iffy polling regardless of the pollster. Still, the fact that the recent polls of this Senate race are erratic definitely indicates that this will be a very competitive race. It's interesting that Gardner holds an overall lead in this poll despite losing the Independent vote.

..and that he is losing the crossover vote, too. Is this poll relying on many missing liberal voters come election day? I know they have a tendency to forget to vote but..

Yeah, I kind of thought that was suspect.

Cohn noted a couple of days ago that CO polls have been off by an average of 3 in statewide races since '08. Not that there's a huge difference between Gardner +2 and Udall +1 at this point.

If PPP has this race within the MoE for either candidate, should we call this a pure tossup? I still think that Democrats have the edge in this race with Udall, but it seems like his advantage is deteriorating.

I'd say this race was already a pure toss up as soon as Gardner jumped in.
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« Reply #19 on: July 18, 2014, 10:16:04 am »

I don't get the fetish with PPP. They are proven left leaning and do predominately RV, yet everyone here says they are the end all be all authority.

PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012.
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« Reply #20 on: July 18, 2014, 10:59:36 am »

I don't get the fetish with PPP. They are proven left leaning and do predominately RV, yet everyone here says they are the end all be all authority.

PPP was the most accurate pollster in 2012.

Exactly. Unless you've got the blinders on, the obvious choice is to defer to the pollster with the best track record--whether or not they have ties to one party or another.

Yes, PPP has been hired to do polling for Democratic candidates (and Bill Maher). No, it doesn't seem to have any affect on their publicized results.
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« Reply #21 on: July 18, 2014, 11:32:54 am »

This poll is garbage, look at the party registration figures and you'll find the explanation for Q's "movement".
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« Reply #22 on: July 18, 2014, 12:11:33 pm »

This poll is garbage, look at the party registration figures and you'll find the explanation for Q's "movement".
What is the PVR for this poll?
« Last Edit: July 18, 2014, 07:19:28 pm by Night Man »Logged

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« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2014, 06:26:41 pm »

I just saw a Democrat from Idaho. I now believe in unicorns.
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« Reply #24 on: July 18, 2014, 08:02:29 pm »

I just saw a Democrat from Idaho. I now believe in unicorns.
Don't worry, there are plenty more, Obama got 36% of the vote in ID in 2008.
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