CO-Quinnipiac: Gardner (R) by 2

[Never]

^ Perhaps we should wait for PPP, but CO seems like one of those states with iffy polling regardless of the pollster. Still, the fact that the recent polls of this Senate race are erratic definitely indicates that this will be a very competitive race. It's interesting that Gardner holds an overall lead in this poll despite losing the Independent vote.

[Never]

^ Perhaps we should wait for PPP, but CO seems like one of those states with iffy polling regardless of the pollster. Still, the fact that the recent polls of this Senate race are erratic definitely indicates that this will be a very competitive race. It's interesting that Gardner holds an overall lead in this poll despite losing the Independent vote.

..and that he is losing the crossover vote, too. Is this poll relying on many missing liberal voters come election day? I know they have a tendency to forget to vote but..

Yeah, I kind of thought that was suspect.

Cohn noted a couple of days ago that CO polls have been off by an average of 3 in statewide races since '08. Not that there's a huge difference between Gardner +2 and Udall +1 at this point.

If PPP has this race within the MoE for either candidate, should we call this a pure tossup? I still think that Democrats have the edge in this race with Udall, but it seems like his advantage is deteriorating.

[Never]

Udall has a gender gap, ahead 47/34 on "issues important to women" and 40/34 on abortion. Gardner has to close that, otherwise still Tilt D IMO.

Gardner does need to close that gender gap to a degree, but I suspect he could still lose women by quite a bit and still win this election. According to exit polls, Ken Buck lost women by 16 points. At this point, I don't see why Gardner would do that poorly with this demographic. If Gardner could lose women by less than 10-12 points, I think he has a fighting chance at defeating Udall, but if he can't, I agree that this race stays Tilt D.