MT-PPP: Daines up 7

[Maxwell]

6 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 42% ................................................
Mitt Romney 47% ....................................................
Someone else / Don't remember 11%

I am skeptical. 

LOL wut. Obama's approval numbers are not only lower than they were in 2012, but the 2014 electorate will be more GOP, so this makes no sense.

I will definitely need another poll to back this up. But either way, Daines being ahead of Romney basically means Walsh still has a long way to go before winning this seat in his own right.

[Maxwell]

6 In the last presidential election, did you vote for
Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
Barack Obama 42% ................................................
Mitt Romney 47% ....................................................
Someone else / Don't remember 11%

I am skeptical. 

LOL wut. Obama's approval numbers are not only lower than they were in 2012, but the 2014 electorate will be more GOP, so this makes no sense.

I will definitely need another poll to back this up. But either way, Daines being ahead of Romney basically means Walsh still has a long way to go before winning this seat in his own right.

It's been a consistent trend in PPP polls that "Someone else/Don't remember" = overwhelmingly Romney voters who are embarrassed they supported him, either because they think he's a RINO, they hate him for losing, or whatever else.  The numbers make more sense if you look at it from that standpoint.

And will the Montana electorate really be more GOP than in 2012? Maybe by a little bit, but the main thing that hurts Democrats in midterm dropoff is minority voters not turning out, and Montana is like 99% white.

It would be nice to get another decent pollster here though.

The midterm dropoff is also younger voters, and I suspect, even in Montana, those voters are heavily Democratic.

Count me as suspicious of this poll.

[Maxwell]

but Obama's approvals are even worse now than they were during the election. Add that to the fact that it will be a midterms climate (meaning less young people), and what we get is that the sample is reflective of a 2012 climate, not a 2014 climate.

If another credible pollster reflects the same results, I will back down on my criticism of this poll.