windjammer
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
Posts: 15,515
|
|
« Reply #1 on: July 21, 2014, 03:29:14 PM » |
|
MATHEMATICS Well, since some members of this forum don't seem to trust the poll because of the 2012 presidential results. I was curious about how the "Don't remember/someone else" voters voted. I was curious, so I made some calculus.
We know that Obama job approval 37/57. Obama job approval is 73/13 among Obama voters. Obama job approval is 7/91 among Romney voters. And Obama job approval is 13/76 among Other/Don't Remember voters.
In order to determine how the Other/Don't Remember voted (because yep, there weren't 11% of voters who voted for an another candidate than Obama or Romney), I made and resolved a system of 2 equations with 2 unknowns:
77x+7y=13 1001x+91y=169 988x=93 =) (=) =) (=) =) 13x + 91y= 76 13x + 91y = 76 13x + 91y=76
x=0.09 (=) =) y= 76-13(0.09) = 0.82 ---------------- 91
So the results: 9% of them voted for Obama, 82% of them voted for Romney. And 9% of them didn't vote for Romney or Obama.
We know as well that the 2012 result for this poll is: Barack Obama: 42% Mitt Romney: 47% Someone else: 11%
So, I believe that in order to determine the real presidential vote, we have to do: Barack Obama= 42+(11)(0.09)=42.99 Mitt Romney= 47+(11)(0.82)= 56.2 Other (Johnson,...)= (11)(0.09)= 0.99
The real results of the 2012 presidential election in Montana were: Mitt Romney= 55.35 Barack Obama= 41.7 Others= 2.95
So, the only problem seems to be with the others (0.99 instead of 2.95). Time to make some other calculs. Mitt Romney= 56.2- (1.96)(0.562)=55.09 Barack Obama= 42.99 -(1.96)(0.4299)=42.14 Others= 0.99+1.96=2.95 (yep I know, that's not exactly accurate, but that's approximately accurate)
The real results were 55.35 Romney/41.7 Obama/2.95 Others
So, I believe we should consider this PPP poll as ACCURATE.
|