Bayh's numbers in Indiana look great...

[Moooooo]

Seventy percent of those surveyed said they approve of the job he's doing. That's nearly as high as the 72 percent approval rating for Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind.

49 percent said they are likely to vote for Bayh for president, political analysts said that's a good number. A third said they would vote for another candidate, and 18 percent weren't sure.

In addition, 67 percent said they think Bayh has the personal qualities needed to be a good president, regardless of whether they would vote for him.

http://www.indystar.com/articles/2/234344-3682-009.html

[Moooooo]

Keep this at the top for a bit'.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Top Bayh winning strategy: The states Gore officially won + Indiana
A weird strategy: IN + OH + Kerry states - NH - OR (all the remaining non-great lakes states were won by Kerry by at least 6.68 points).

For this 2nd strategy, Bayh would want a running mate who would do well in the great lakes by him/her self. .

[Joe Republic]

I'm about 80% certain that Bayh would win Indiana in the general.

[Erc]

49 percent said they are likely to vote for Bayh for president, political analysts said that's a good number. A third said they would vote for another candidate, and 18 percent weren't sure.

Only 49 percent vs. Three Legged Mule (R)?

Not the best numbers for Bayh.

Indiana will be close in the general if Bayh gets the nod...but it will be by no means a lock.

[Moooooo]

49% say they will vote for him in 2008 if he receives the nomination.  18% are undecided.  Im fairly confident he can pick up 2% of those 18% who are undecided.

His approval ratings are scary.  Almost as high as Lugar's.

[Joe Republic]

His approval ratings are scary.  Almost as high as Lugar's.

Especially for a Democrat in a red state.  But I wonder how many of those people polled were also weighing up his tenure as governor in their approval judgment of his senate term.  Obviously that can't be bad for him.

[Frodo]

I'm about 80% certain that Bayh would win Indiana in the general.

i seriously doubt it -if Mark Warner is unlikely to carry his own state if he is the Democratic presidential nominee, how much more likely would Evan Bayh carry his? 

[J.R. Brown]

I'm about 80% certain that Bayh would win Indiana in the general.

i seriously doubt it -if Mark Warner is unlikely to carry his own state if he is the Democratic presidential nominee, how much more likely would Evan Bayh carry his? 

Even if he wouldn't be able to carry Indiana, with numbers like that, he could easily carry Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, and the long shot Missouri.

Don't quote me on Missouri though, their trend towards the Republicans in recent years would make it a lot more difficult for Bayh to carry it. Although that could have a lot to do with GW and the more progressive Democrats he was up against.

Clinton's numbers in '92 and '96 were pretty good, and he came from a pretty red state.

I guess my point is that Missouri trend towards the Republicans in the last 5 years could have a lot to do with George W. Bush.

[Moooooo]

i seriously doubt it -if Mark Warner is unlikely to carry his own state if he is the Democratic presidential nominee, how much more likely would Evan Bayh carry his? 

Did you read the first post in this thread?  His polling numbers are well above Warners in their respective states.  Bayh's last name is a fixture in Indiana politics.  Bayh has won 5 statewide elections.  Warner has only won one.  Bayh has held 3 different positions in Indiana.  Warner has only held one.  Dont hate on Bayh because you want Feingold. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm about 80% certain that Bayh would win Indiana in the general.

i seriously doubt it -if Mark Warner is unlikely to carry his own state if he is the Democratic presidential nominee, how much more likely would Evan Bayh carry his? 

Bayh just got 62% of the vote.

[Democratic Hawk]

i seriously doubt it -if Mark Warner is unlikely to carry his own state if he is the Democratic presidential nominee, how much more likely would Evan Bayh carry his? 

Did you read the first post in this thread?  His polling numbers are well above Warners in their respective states.  Bayh's last name is a fixture in Indiana politics.  Bayh has won 5 statewide elections.  Warner has only won one.  Bayh has held 3 different positions in Indiana.  Warner has only held one.  Dont hate on Bayh because you want Feingold. 

I agree Nick - Bayh is much more revered among Hoosiers than Warner is among Virginians. While, they both have pretty solid centrist credentials,  Bayh has the experience and appears somewhat 'Teflon' - much to the chagrin of the GOP

Frodo - wouldn't you find a Bayh/Feingold ticket attractive? I would. Bayh could take the fight and be competitive in red states; while, Feingold can rally the Democratic base

I think Bayh could potentially carry the Mid-West region, with the exception of Kentucky and even there, I dare say he'd run the GOP close

Bayh can connect with small town and rural voters in a way that Kerry couldn't. If Bayh won the nomination, there'd be a lot more blue counties in both red states and blue

Dave

[opebo]

Top Bayh winning strategy: The states Gore officially won + Indiana
A weird strategy: IN + OH + Kerry states - NH - OR (all the remaining non-great lakes states were won by Kerry by at least 6.68 points).

Sounds good, though I believe the probability of the Democrats losing Oregon in the next few elections is exceedingly low.

[Frodo]

Frodo - wouldn't you find a Bayh/Feingold ticket attractive?

i would consider it -but only if Evan Bayh ultimately wins the nomination.  until then, my allegiance is given to Russ Feingold, and i will continue to promote him at every opportunity throughout the primaries and caucuses until he either wins or drops out.

but i'll look into Evan Bayh and his record thus far as senator.  if he has what the past two Democratic candidates have lacked -the ability to connect with ordinary Americans- he will definitely have my vote in November, 2008.    

   

[AuH2O]

This idea of a regional effect is overplayed. Bayh would only really help Democrats generally in Indiana, and when a serious Presidential race got underway his approval ratings would drop like a rock. It would be close but my guess is that he would narrowly lose IN.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

I'd like Feingold/Bayh, that's a winner

[No more McShame]

Top Bayh winning strategy: The states Gore officially won + Indiana
A weird strategy: IN + OH + Kerry states - NH - OR (all the remaining non-great lakes states were won by Kerry by at least 6.68 points).

Sounds good, though I believe the probability of the Democrats losing Oregon in the next few elections is exceedingly low.

It's always scary when I agree woth opebo, but for the Republicans to have a chance in Oregon they would have to nominate a Giuliani or someone in that vein.  I'm sorry, despite what polls are saying, those type of Republicans will not have a prayer of winning the nomination once the field starts to thin out.  The only Republican who could survive the primary that Oregon MIGHT vote for is McCain (and I don't think he's even going to run).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd like Feingold/Bayh, that's a winner

The only thing is 2 Senators might be seen as a liability. Some non-Senators possibilities for VP to consider are Warner, Richardson, Spitzer, and Schweitzer.

[Moooooo]

I'd like Feingold/Bayh, that's a winner

I dont see Bayh taking the backseat to anyone.  To be honest I really dont see Feingold taking the back seat to anyone.  I dont understand why any U.S. Senator would want the VP slot.  At best you have an outside chance of being President 8 years down the road.  Why risk losing your perks in the Senate for that?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd like Feingold/Bayh, that's a winner

I dont see Bayh taking the backseat to anyone.  To be honest I really dont see Feingold taking the back seat to anyone.  I dont understand why any U.S. Senator would want the VP slot.  At best you have an outside chance of being President 8 years down the road.  Why risk losing your perks in the Senate for that?

If you're a Senator you're up only a third of Presidential elections, so you're not giving anything up by running the other2 out of 3 times.

[skybridge]

I'd like Feingold/Bayh, that's a winner

I dont see Bayh taking the backseat to anyone.  To be honest I really dont see Feingold taking the back seat to anyone.  I dont understand why any U.S. Senator would want the VP slot.  At best you have an outside chance of being President 8 years down the road.  Why risk losing your perks in the Senate for that?

The vice-president does serve as Senate leader. I would support that ticket the most at this stage, I suppose (Feingold/Bayh). Anyway, if Bayh got the nomination, he would carry New Hampshire.

[MissCatholic]

bayh is the nomination or nothing. he wont except vp.

[Alcon]

People overplay the regional winning effect almost as much as they overplay the extra-regional losing effect.

Nominating Bayh after nominating Kerry would NOT lose Oregon. If anything, Bayh would improve in Oregon. Ask yourself who Oregonians are more likely to choose: a liberal from Massachusetts or a center-leftist from Indiana? In an instant, Oregon would choose the letter - in fact, Bayh is the kind of politician who would appeal to Oregon - sort of a populist morals, libertarian policy fellow. Portland, as well as the western side as a whole, would eat that up.

As for New Hampshire, he might not make it that much better than the national average, but he would still do excellently. I do not think New Hampshire voters will think "well, that Kerry fellow was from a state sort of close to us, and Bayh is from so far away!" and vote against him.

I do think Bayh would improve his numbers in states like Iowa, but not because he's from Indiana, but rather because he has the whole "midwestern values" thing going on. This seems to be very important to the midwestern states. I would consider betting on Bayh breaking around 42% in Kansas, in fact.

[No more McShame]

Nominating Bayh after nominating Kerry would NOT lose Oregon. If anything, Bayh would improve in Oregon. Ask yourself who Oregonians are more likely to choose: a liberal from Massachusetts or a center-leftist from Indiana? In an instant, Oregon would choose the letter - in fact, Bayh is the kind of politician who would appeal to Oregon - sort of a populist morals, libertarian policy fellow. Portland, as well as the western side as a whole, would eat that up.

No, Bayh would not lose Oregon (unless Sen. Gordon Smith is the Republican nominee, right).  Portland and Eugene would certainly prefer Kerry and a liberal 3rd party would do well in those places.  He wouldn't lose Multnomah and Lane counties by any stretch but wouldn't get the proportion that Kerry received.  Bayh would own Washington County (W. Portland suburbs), as it's fiscally center-right and socially liberal.  The rest of the state tends to vote Republican, but, other than Clackamas County (where I grew up and the more conservative S. Portland suburbs) there are no areas that could come even close to matching the population of those three counties.  Unless the Republicans nominate someone from the more libertarian wing of the party, they can kiss Washington County and thus the state goodbye.

[Alcon]

Nominating Bayh after nominating Kerry would NOT lose Oregon. If anything, Bayh would improve in Oregon. Ask yourself who Oregonians are more likely to choose: a liberal from Massachusetts or a center-leftist from Indiana? In an instant, Oregon would choose the letter - in fact, Bayh is the kind of politician who would appeal to Oregon - sort of a populist morals, libertarian policy fellow. Portland, as well as the western side as a whole, would eat that up.

No, Bayh would not lose Oregon (unless Sen. Gordon Smith is the Republican nominee, right).  Portland and Eugene would certainly prefer Kerry and a liberal 3rd party would do well in those places.  He wouldn't lose Multnomah and Lane counties by any stretch but wouldn't get the proportion that Kerry received.  Bayh would own Washington County (W. Portland suburbs), as it's fiscally center-right and socially liberal.  The rest of the state tends to vote Republican, but, other than Clackamas County (where I grew up and the more conservative S. Portland suburbs) there are no areas that could come even close to matching the population of those three counties.  Unless the Republicans nominate someone from the more libertarian wing of the party, they can kiss Washington County and thus the state goodbye.

Absolutely. I do think Bayh would do better in the south Portland suburbs and flip the important Clackamas County, which Kerry barely lost anyway. Marion County would probably be closer, although I doubt Bayh would flip it. How do you think he'd play in Linn County (Albany) and Jackson County (Medford/Ashland)?