MT: Gravis: Bush leads Clinton by 10
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  MT: Gravis: Bush leads Clinton by 10
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Author Topic: MT: Gravis: Bush leads Clinton by 10  (Read 1836 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: July 23, 2014, 12:59:04 PM »

Article.

Jeb Bush (R)- 49%
Hillary Clinton (D)- 39%
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I Will Not Be Wrong
outofbox6
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« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2014, 07:42:24 PM »

I would assume Montana wouldn't be too friendly to Clinton, especially after seeing her Colorado poll numbers.
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Never
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« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2014, 09:43:56 PM »

I would assume Montana wouldn't be too friendly to Clinton, especially after seeing her Colorado poll numbers.

I'm kind of thinking along those lines too. The West seems to be Clinton's soft spot, especially now that we have newer polls from states like Florida showing her doing quite well for a Democrat.
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2014, 02:05:36 PM »

I would assume Montana wouldn't be too friendly to Clinton, especially after seeing her Colorado poll numbers.

I'm kind of thinking along those lines too. The West seems to be Clinton's soft spot, especially now that we have newer polls from states like Florida showing her doing quite well for a Democrat.

It's hard to see Clinton winning Florida by 20 while losing Montana and Colorado.
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MATTROSE94
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2014, 03:11:57 PM »

I would assume Montana wouldn't be too friendly to Clinton, especially after seeing her Colorado poll numbers.

I'm kind of thinking along those lines too. The West seems to be Clinton's soft spot, especially now that we have newer polls from states like Florida showing her doing quite well for a Democrat.

It's hard to see Clinton winning Florida by 20 while losing Montana and Colorado.
Stranger things have happened though. I was always under the impression that the West is somewhat of a weak spot for Hillary Clinton while certain areas of the South (like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas and Georgia) were some of the places that she is relatively strong in when compared to Obama.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2014, 03:44:22 PM »

I was always under the impression that the West is somewhat of a weak spot for Hillary Clinton while certain areas of the South (like Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Arkansas and Georgia) were some of the places that she is relatively strong in when compared to Obama.

Florida is only Hillary's 11th best state so far, relatively speaking (of the 29 states having been polled to date), while Montana is only her 13th worst state (of the same pool of 29 states). In other words, both Florida and Montana have seen fairly generic trends away from Obama 2012 so far. Montana has only improved 1% for her, while Florida has improved by almost 5%. Other Southern states show much bigger swings than Florida, despite Florida's demographic being an almost perfect fit for her (but I guess they weren't too bad for Obama either).
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2014, 04:59:21 PM »

If I were Hillary I would be getting quite concerned about having the same fate as Gore.  That's a lot of extra votes in CA/NY/FL that she needs more in CO/IA/NH.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2014, 05:28:24 PM »

If I were Hillary I would be getting quite concerned about having the same fate as Gore.  That's a lot of extra votes in CA/NY/FL that she needs more in CO/IA/NH.

If she crushes in FL, then she really doesn't need CO, IA, or NH.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2014, 05:36:29 PM »

If I were Hillary I would be getting quite concerned about having the same fate as Gore.  That's a lot of extra votes in CA/NY/FL that she needs more in CO/IA/NH.

If she crushes in FL, then she really doesn't need CO, IA, or NH.

Exactly. Tongue Better to have 29 EVs secured than just 19 EVs. Tongue
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TDAS04
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2014, 05:47:36 PM »

Only 10?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2014, 08:12:08 PM »

If I were Hillary I would be getting quite concerned about having the same fate as Gore.  That's a lot of extra votes in CA/NY/FL that she needs more in CO/IA/NH.

If she crushes in FL, then she really doesn't need CO, IA, or NH.

Exactly. Tongue Better to have 29 EVs secured than just 19 EVs. Tongue

I guess that's a fair point.  This is a Dem win:



So the Republican has to win PA and one of MI/MN/WI, plus all the other traditional swing states if Hillary has FL leaning her way.
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"'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2014, 09:05:12 PM »

If Hillary is winning nationally, she isn't going to lose NH (I don't think she'd lose Iowa either but it's more conceivable). NH, CO, and IA are all volatile states with weird/bad polling. Obama underpolled in all three, and he was a better fit in the latter two.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #12 on: July 28, 2014, 09:21:23 PM »

I would assume Montana wouldn't be too friendly to Clinton, especially after seeing her Colorado poll numbers.

Bill won it in 1992, fwiw Smiley
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