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Author Topic: KS-KSN: Davis +8  (Read 2644 times)
RogueBeaver
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« on: July 24, 2014, 06:00:44 pm »

48/40. Brownback should let the nukes fly right now, ditto AFP.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



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bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: July 24, 2014, 06:18:16 pm »

Is the only way Brownback can win is if he nationalizes the race by tying Davis to "Obama liberalism" and "Kansas as a red state"?
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #2 on: July 24, 2014, 06:19:49 pm »

Wow. Davis has better odds than Michaud to be honest
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Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #3 on: July 24, 2014, 06:20:01 pm »

Is the only way Brownback can win is if he nationalizes the race by tying Davis to "Obama liberalism" and "Kansas as a red state"?

Pretty much. That's how the Republicans almost held the senate in 2006. They needed to hold Conrad Burns and he almost won.

Hopefully, if the map is expanded enough, it takes so pressure off of Democrats in Montana, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa.
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NHLiberal
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« Reply #4 on: July 24, 2014, 06:26:09 pm »

Is the only way Brownback can win is if he nationalizes the race by tying Davis to "Obama liberalism" and "Kansas as a red state"?

Pretty much. That's how the Republicans almost held the senate in 2006. They needed to hold Conrad Burns and he almost won.

Hopefully, if the map is expanded enough, it takes so pressure off of Democrats in Montana, Colorado, New Hampshire and Iowa.

Huh? Davis is running for Governor of Kansas, not Senate. And there's very little "pressure" in NH (or MT since our odds there are so small anyway). And I don't really understand the 2006 comparison. The unpopular President was a Republican as were both houses of Congress so tying Burns to the national Republicans, even in a red state like Montana, wouldn't be a good move for the Republicans.
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Basically with Hillary vs. the GOP field, you're picking between spending the summer living with the shrill aunt who isn't much fun at all or the uncle whose hand always gets a little too close to your privates whenever you're around him.  No matter how much fun he claims you're going to have reforming government together just you and him, the aunt has the edge.
Flake
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« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2014, 06:29:33 pm »

New Poll: Kansas Governor by Other Source on 2014-07-24

Summary: D: 48%, R: 40%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

Wow.
« Last Edit: July 24, 2014, 06:31:21 pm by Flo »Logged

RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: July 24, 2014, 06:31:00 pm »

The "other source" is apparently SUSA.
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7.35, 3.65

« Les plus nobles principes du monde ne valent que par l’action.  » - de Gaulle



"Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard." - Mencken
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #7 on: July 24, 2014, 06:34:06 pm »

Brownback caused a serious schism in his own party. He let his tea party friends go to war against the establishment moderate Republicans who still have a major hold in Kansas politics. He ended a lot of peoples' careers, and now those people are now aggressively backing his opponent. That's not an easy wound to fix, and pointing his guns at the Democrat isn't nearly enough.
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Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
Free Bird
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« Reply #8 on: July 24, 2014, 08:29:43 pm »

Brownback doesn't deserve to win. Davis is a DINO anyway.
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I feel liberal and around conservatives and conservative around liberals. Seems I can’t win.
Miles
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« Reply #9 on: July 24, 2014, 08:29:59 pm »

Glorious news!
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Dixie Reborn
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« Reply #10 on: July 24, 2014, 08:33:11 pm »

Glorious news!
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Flake
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« Reply #11 on: July 24, 2014, 09:16:12 pm »

Brownback doesn't deserve to win. Davis is a DINO anyway.

How?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: July 24, 2014, 09:21:26 pm »

Hopefully the Libertarian has a strong performance, but I think Brownback deserves a beat for his anti-gay nonsense. Not that I like Davis, just Brownback deserves an ass kicking.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: July 24, 2014, 10:33:40 pm »

He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #14 on: July 24, 2014, 11:47:13 pm »

He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.
Well Kansas has a pretty moderate history so it shouldn't come as a huge surprise - Brownback overreached and this is what the result is.

I was at a rural county GOP meeting tonight - a lot of Republicans aren't too happy with him either. He's going to have to run a very strong General Election campaign.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #15 on: July 25, 2014, 12:00:22 am »

He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.
Well Kansas has a pretty moderate history so it shouldn't come as a huge surprise - Brownback overreached and this is what the result is.

I was at a rural county GOP meeting tonight - a lot of Republicans aren't too happy with him either. He's going to have to run a very strong General Election campaign.

What things are republicans not happy about? Education? Jobs? Taxes?
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: July 25, 2014, 12:07:44 am »

He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.
Well Kansas has a pretty moderate history so it shouldn't come as a huge surprise - Brownback overreached and this is what the result is.

I was at a rural county GOP meeting tonight - a lot of Republicans aren't too happy with him either. He's going to have to run a very strong General Election campaign.

What things are republicans not happy about? Education? Jobs? Taxes?

Taxes. Tmth can elaborate far better than I can, but what I've been hearing is that his tax cuts have not only not worked for supply side economic success, but have also dented the budget in a very serious way. Some are moderates, but a lot of Republicans in the region are old Bob Dole types - Conservative, but prefer a balanced budget over tax cuts.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #17 on: July 25, 2014, 12:19:57 am »

He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.
Well Kansas has a pretty moderate history so it shouldn't come as a huge surprise - Brownback overreached and this is what the result is.

I was at a rural county GOP meeting tonight - a lot of Republicans aren't too happy with him either. He's going to have to run a very strong General Election campaign.

What things are republicans not happy about? Education? Jobs? Taxes?
Education and the tax cuts Brownback implemented are the primary two issues. The argument is that Brownback's plan to localize education is causes tenure to be a non-factor and longtime teachers being dismissed in favor of "cheaper options." Brownback is arguing he is simply trying to decentralize the power and that the blame should be passed to the local level - he then contends that K-12 funding is higher than it was when he took office, that over 600 new teachers have been hired, with over 1/3 being for special education, and that teacher's salaries have increased by 2-3% on average since he took over (all true).

In terms of taxes, I'm not as informed on this issue as I should be, but the brief synopsis is that there were reliefs to property and income taxes at the state level, and this prompted county governments to raise their property tax, so even though the state property tax is lowered (or gone, I can't remember), the county one has risen so people are actually paying higher rates. Income tax was cut, as was sales tax, and we really haven't seen the economic growth that he predicted, though it is worth noting that our unemployment is still one of the lowest in the nation and our private sector job growth numbers have been pretty good.

Overall, I would say that Brownback's "experiment" hasn't lived up to the level he predicted, but it also hasn't been quite the disaster Davis and the Democrats are saying.
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Flake
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« Reply #18 on: July 25, 2014, 12:50:27 am »

I would also think the whole "gays shouldn't have the same rights as straights" would be a factor.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #19 on: July 25, 2014, 01:01:56 am »

I would also think the whole "gays shouldn't have the same rights as straights" would be a factor.
From what I understand, one of the primary goals of that was to force Paul Davis' hand on the issue - he quietly opposed the bill which upset some liberals. A strategy of it was to tamper liberal enthusiasm for Davis, and while it may have a little bit, not nearly enough as Brownback probably liked.

That doesn't really answer your question, but no, it isn't really an issue. Obviously the staunch LGBT supporters hate Brownback for it, but they were going to vote for Davis anyways. I rarely see it discussed by the Davis camp or its supporters.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: July 25, 2014, 01:49:32 am »

Damn !

And this is with a 56% R, 26% D and 18% I sample.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=25283e7b-45ee-4335-bd37-2ecae3d5f19b

Looks like Gov. Browncrook will get a well-deserved trashing in November ... Smiley
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #21 on: July 25, 2014, 02:10:09 am »

He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.

Far right wingers are a lot more popular when all they have to do is vote "no" on everything, as opposed to when they actually have to govern and put through an agenda.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: July 25, 2014, 12:34:24 pm »

He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.

One can lose in a state with a large partisan edge for one for one of two things:

INCOMPETENCE

CORRUPTION



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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #23 on: July 25, 2014, 05:07:46 pm »

He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.

One can lose in a state with a large partisan edge for one for one of two things:

INCOMPETENCE

CORRUPTION





I can see the narrative of this race being similar to the one in Illinois. One party thinks that 50+1% of voters are die hard loyal and just sees that as a green light to play.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: July 26, 2014, 07:58:36 am »

He's trailing by 8, as a republican from Kansas, as an incumbent. I don't know how this happens, but clearly he made it happen and he probably deserves losing.

One can lose in a state with a large partisan edge for one for one of two things:

INCOMPETENCE

CORRUPTION





I can see the narrative of this race being similar to the one in Illinois. One party thinks that 50+1% of voters are die hard loyal and just sees that as a green light to play.

That is the idea. The Democrats have few such races, but Republicans seem more frequently in denial:

We can't lose this Governorship -- this is conservative Georgia!

We can't lose this Senate seat -- this is conservative Georgia!

Politicians can so disgrace themselves in most states that they can give a comparative unknown a good chance to win a political office that they think invulnerable because  'this is...' The other is that an agenda either does not work or that it has run out of ideas.

So far we have yet to see anyone lose by trivializing rape or its consequences as did Todd Akin in Missouri or Richard Mourdock in Indiana in statewide races, contradicting a trend in Missouri or the norm in Indiana. "We are conservative but we are not crazy" is one possible voting explanation of electoral behavior. The Democrats won the Senate seats despite Barack Obama losing the state by 10% or so. (Maybe the President believed that the Senate seats mattered more than the electoral votes of those states, so he did not campaign in two states taht were very close in 2008).   
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Your political compass

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